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Support for SNP falls to lowest level since 2014 referendum, poll suggests

21 Apr 2023 3 minute read
Former Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon. Photo Russell Cheyne PA Images.

New voting data suggests that support for the SNP at Holyrood has slumped to its lowest level since IndyRef following the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon and an investigation into party finances.

The data from YouGov, which polled 1,032 Scottish adults on their voting intention at the next Holyrood election between April 17-20, found that the SNP’s constituency vote share has dropped five points since March to 38%, the joint-lowest since the independence referendum in 2014.

As recently as December the SNP was on 50% in constituency voting intention.

The poll shows that Labour’s constituency vote share of 30% is the highest it has achieved since the 2014 vote.

The Conservative Party takes 16% of the vote and the Liberal Democrats 10%.

The regional list vote was similar, with the SNP’s five-point dip to 30% putting the party on the lowest share of the vote it has held since just before the referendum, and representing a 10-point drop since late 2022.

Labour’s 26% is similar to other polls from this year, although still represents a significant turnaround for the party from its low point of 11% in mid-2019.

Westminster voting intention has seen less of an impact, with results for all parties in the margin of error to the previous poll in March.

The SNP takes 37% of the vote (from 39% before), while Labour is on 28% (minus 1) and the Tories 17% (plus 1).

Divided

Following the resignation of Ms Sturgeon in February, and the election of Humza Yousaf as the new First Minister, half of Scots (53%) see the SNP as a divided party, compared with 29% who see it as a united one.

The poll also found that only 19% of Scots believe Mr Yousaf is doing well, with 44% who believe he is doing badly.

One in three Scots are currently unsure how he is doing as First Minister.

The poll also found that four in 10 people believe that Mr Yousaf will do a worse job than his predecessor Ms Sturgeon, with only 9% thinking he will be better.

Among 2019 SNP voters, only 32% think that he is doing well.

One in three believe he is doing a good job, but 28% say he is doing a bad one. Four in 10 (40%) answered “don’t know”.

Support for Scottish independence remains the same as it was in last month’s YouGov poll, with 46% saying they would vote Yes and 54% No.


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hdavies15
hdavies15
10 months ago

Looks increasingly like other parties are, or were, led by scumbags too. Not just the Tories and Labour.

NOT Grayham Jones
NOT Grayham Jones
10 months ago
Reply to  hdavies15

Yes you are right- i wonder how long before the roof caves in on Plaid as we know there are lots of scandles being pushed under the carpet by the leadership.

Leigh Richards
Leigh Richards
10 months ago

Wild allegations by anonymous online trolls (such as yourself) do no constitute ‘scandles’….or scandals even.

Leigh Richards
Leigh Richards
10 months ago

A disgusting homophobic smear 😡

Leigh Richards
Leigh Richards
10 months ago
Reply to  hdavies15

No one involved with the leadership of the SNP has been charged (or convicted) with any offence – in what way are they ‘scumbags’? 🤔

Last edited 10 months ago by Leigh Richards
Ernie The Smallholder
Ernie The Smallholder
10 months ago
Reply to  Leigh Richards

The SNP has a new leader elected by the members. As with all changes in leadership of all parties Humza Yousaf needs time to settle in the job.
The ratings for Scottish independence has not fallen by much and Humza needs to build on the campaign for independence.

Y Cymro
Y Cymro
10 months ago

Whenever this saga is concluded , and if former FM Nicola Sturgeon and other high ranking SNP officials accused of financial irregularities are found innocent of any crimes committed, this can only mean one thing. That this spectacle is politically motivated with the sole intention of damaging not only the political reputations of those involved, but done to strangle the indyref movement itself by those hostile to the very idea of Scottish independence. And Its increasingly seems that a Unionist kangaroo court is in session and those accused have already been convicted when due process should take its course before… Read more »

Che Guevara's Fist
Che Guevara's Fist
10 months ago
Reply to  Y Cymro

I hope Plaid Cymru members have been observing the obvious hatchet jobs lately and preparing to defend themselves appropriately, because I suspect Westminster have them in their sights next.

Ernie The Smallholder
Ernie The Smallholder
10 months ago

Plaid Cymru needs to open and transparent with its membership and not to fall into any traps set up by opponents of an independent and free Wales.

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