News

Tories could lose several MPs in Wales, says new poll

20 Dec 2021 2 minutes Read
James Davies picture by David Woolfall (CC BY 3.0). Virginia Crosbie picture by Stacey Mutkin (CC BY-SA 4.0). Sarah Atheron picture by David Woolfall (CC BY 3.0).

The Tories could lose several of their MPs in Wales according to a new poll.

A YouGov poll conducted for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University suggests support for the party has fallen, which means it might not hold on to many of the seats it won at the 2019 General Election.

According to the data, the Conservative Party would be set to lose eight seats if a general election were to be held,

The new poll comes amid a series of bad headlines for Boris Johnson, which appears to have impacted on support for his party.

The poll is based on the current number of seats in Wales, 40, with Labour predicted to gain from Tory losses. However, the number of Welsh seats are due to be cut to 32 before the next election.

All eight losses would be picked up by Labour seat gains in Wales, all from the Conservatives.

They would see Delyn, Bridgend, Clwyd South, Vale of Clwyd, Ynys Mon, Wrexham, Aberconwy and the Vale of Glamorgan turning red.

Projected overall seat total in Wales:

  • Labour: 30 (+8)
  • Conservatives: 6 (-8)
  • Plaid Cymru: 4 (=)

‘Westminster voting intentions’ 

Latest Westminster voting intentions:

  • Labour 39% (+2)
  • Conservatives 26% (-3)
  • Plaid Cymru 13% (-4)
  • Liberal Democrats 3% (No change)
  • Green Party 6% (+1)
  • Reform UK 7% (+2)
  • Other 3% (+1)

Professor Roger Awan Scully of Cardiff University said: “These figures suggest the recent decline in the Britain-wide poll ratings of the Conservative is being mirrored here in Wales – our latest estimate puts the Welsh Tories fully ten points below the level of support that they secured in the December 2019 general election.

“Labour’s position, by contrast, appears to be very solid, while Plaid Cymru appear to have slipped back after an unusually strong showing in our autumn poll.

“It is also interesting to observe, in the wake of their spectacular by-election success this week not far over the border in North Shropshire, that there has been no apparent improvement in the position of the Liberal Democrats.”

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hdavies15
hdavies15
30 days ago

“The Tories could lose….” You can rewrite that to “The Tories will lose…” They got major gains in 2019 on a wave of Brexit reaction and general deception. Next election will be pay back time. Plaid Cymru should be aiming for a piece of that but as the article suggests it will be a Labour bonanza as far as Wales is concerned.

Dr John Ball
Dr John Ball
30 days ago
Reply to  hdavies15

You are of course correct. However, Plaid Cymru has the best part of four years to prepare for the next English general election – and happily four years to get its excuses right for yet another failure.

Androw Bennett
Androw Bennett
30 days ago
Reply to  Dr John Ball

Less than THREE years unless legislation changes the timing. It SHOULD be on or before 12 December 2024.

Richard
Richard
30 days ago
Reply to  Dr John Ball

A touch from your heart rather than your head on this one John – unlike your usual contributions 😀…..my own thoughts tend to look at other nations who might have some lessons for us eg Canada 🇨🇦 . A more mature electorate in a post devolution setting is increasingly splitting their votes between London and Cardiff Bay electoral outings. Plaids vote seems to better the closer they get to the locality. Perhaps this is masked by the independent tradition in large parts of Wales ? They score well in many settings at town or community or unitary levels but less… Read more »

Last edited 30 days ago by Richard
Glen
Glen
30 days ago
Reply to  hdavies15

Blurring the lines between Plaid and Labour in the Senedd will be highly damaging to Plaid’s electoral prospects both in Westminster and Cardiff.

Mick Tems
Mick Tems
30 days ago

Booting the tory enemy out – especially Cairns – would be the grandest Christmas present of all!

Rhosddu
Rhosddu
30 days ago

I see no reason why Plaid Cymru couldn’t win Aberconwy and Ynys Mon.

Mr Williams
Mr Williams
30 days ago
Reply to  Rhosddu

Ynys Mon, yes. The issue with Aberconwy (same for Clwyd West) is demographics. The population mostly lives on the coast and included many retirees from England. These usually lean Tory.

Gareth Wyn Jones
Gareth Wyn Jones
29 days ago
Reply to  Mr Williams

Labour and plaid vote splits letting the tories through the middle, Ynys Mon in particular

hdavies15
hdavies15
29 days ago
Reply to  Mr Williams

Lean? Pretty much horizontal although a credible Farage lookalike might distract some of them ! Direct consequence of poor immigration controls over decades. Colonists now deeply embedded.

j humphrys
j humphrys
29 days ago
Reply to  Mr Williams

But consider 200 Tory years in North Shropshire are at an end!
Frost smells the air, and deserts the ship…………….

Last edited 29 days ago by j humphrys
GW Atkinson
GW Atkinson
30 days ago

If Plaid can’t make any headway in this then jesus f’ing christ. What is wrong with them?

Paul
Paul
30 days ago
Reply to  GW Atkinson

Their messaging does not exist in a vacuum. It must stand up to the opposition, and, most critically, it must convert people from ‘sympathetic to the message’ to ‘confident the messenger can govern.’. That is one of their core failings I think.

Robert Williams
Robert Williams
29 days ago
Reply to  Paul

Yes, I think this hits the nail on the head.

Leigh Richards
Leigh Richards
30 days ago
Reply to  GW Atkinson

But when have plaid ever been able to make ‘headway’ in a british general election? UK GEs are tailor made for the two main british parties, who recieve acres of media coverage and can dominate proceedings with their huge financial war chests.

B Schmit
B Schmit
29 days ago
Reply to  GW Atkinson

Simply I think they need to be a bit more centrist as much of the electorate is and they need to be very Wales focussed. The ‘off topic’ distractions that the very left leader used to go on about (still does) alienates those that see such priority for wokery and virtue signalling at any opportunity. You can hate all of that and say there is nothing wrong with being staunchly proudly very left and PC etc but Labour cant ever get in in England post the Blair/Brown years for similar reasons and DESPITE meandering around being more centrist. Just a… Read more »

j humphrys
j humphrys
29 days ago
Reply to  B Schmit

Yes, that looks correct. Centrist, nationalist, business friendly, honest caring?

B Schmit
B Schmit
29 days ago
Reply to  j humphrys

You’ve defined a winner – and add quite green to boot. Where do I vote?

Elvey MacDonald
Elvey MacDonald
29 days ago
Reply to  GW Atkinson

Perhaps you should ask ‘what is wrong with the electorate’?

R W
R W
29 days ago
Reply to  GW Atkinson

What is wrong with the voters more like!!

GW Atkinson
GW Atkinson
30 days ago

Chickens coming home to roost for the baby starvers.The fact that they are funded by the English establishment to do politics against Wales’ interests sickens the hell out of me.

Erisian
Erisian
30 days ago

8/14 Must try harder.

Malcolm rj
Malcolm rj
30 days ago

Nothing will change I can’t see labour getting into power in London and Stamer seems to have no interest in Wales it must be better to have someone representing Wales in the party that’s in power than nobody

Gareth Wyn Jones
Gareth Wyn Jones
30 days ago

Tactical voting surely it would be better for parties to work together to rid as many tories as possible AND gain more seats for themselves?

j humphrys
j humphrys
29 days ago

Absolutely!

Mr Williams
Mr Williams
30 days ago

Bring on the next election …..

Grayham Jones
30 days ago

Kick all English party’s out of wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 stop being little Englanders and be proud to be welsh start fighting for your children and grandchildren future in wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 it’s time for a new wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

Robert Williams
Robert Williams
29 days ago

A curious use of the word ‘several’ in your headline – the poll suggests, to my great satisfaction, that the Tories would lose more than half their seats. It would be interesting to have the poll figures mapped onto the proposed 32 new constituencies.

Y Cymro
Y Cymro
29 days ago

I want the Tories wiped of the Welsh political map. They care not for Wales or Welsh democracy, England is their main focus and priority. If you ever hear any statement made by either Welsh Conservative MP or MS in Wales, it’s never a positive but always negative. Take our one and only International Airport. Welsh Tory leader Andrew RT Davies was quite happy to do nothing to save our only International Airport in Cardiff after its Spanish owner’s neglect meant it was dying a slow death. And when it was saved by the Welsh Government, the Welsh Conservatives criticised… Read more »

j humphrys
j humphrys
29 days ago
Reply to  Y Cymro

Yep, WG should establish a stronger link for Schiphol – Cardiff? This would enable people from Scandia to fly-in and use fast links to both Eng. and Wal? KLM very good airline!

Paul
Paul
29 days ago
Reply to  j humphrys

Cardiff has daily flights to Schiphol – which is in Amsterdam not Scandinavia.

Paul
Paul
29 days ago

The poll was carried out between the 13th and 16th December so for Scully to highlight a lack of momvemt in the Lib Dem figure is ridiculous as the result wasn’t known until the 17th.

Also no reference of Plaid loosing 4% (while the Conservatives loosing 3%).

Just two observations as the Welsh media and political ‘commentators’ are clearly unable to provide any kind of impartial analysis.

Mochyn 69
Mochyn 69
29 days ago

Bye bye toraidhs!

Pob lwc
Pob lwc
29 days ago

It’s always fun to pop onto NC and see the lunatic separatist fringe losing their tiny minds over something or other. Thanks for the entertainment, guys!

Cai Wogan Jones
Cai Wogan Jones
29 days ago

The complexion of Wales’s representation in the Westminster parliament does not make the slightest difference to the condition of our communities. The handful of MPs we send there is diluted to the point of total irrelevance.

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