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Tories facing worst result ever as Labour eye post-war record majority – poll

18 Jun 2024 4 minute read
Penny Mordaunt is among the senior Tories predicted to lose their seat. Photo Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire

Labour is on course to win more than 450 seats and the biggest majority of any post-war government, according to a poll of almost 20,000 people.

The poll by Ipsos, published on Tuesday, estimated Labour would win 43% of the vote and secure 453 seats, giving it a majority of 256 and reducing the Conservatives to just 115 seats.

That would be the Tories’ worst result ever, exceeding the previous record of 156 seats in 1906, and mean senior figures such as Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan, Johnny Mercer and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg losing their seats.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt faces a close battle in his Surrey constituency of Godalming and Ash, while the poll has cabinet ministers James Cleverly and Kemi Badenoch clinging on.

That result could be even worse for the Conservatives, with Ipsos estimating a lower range of just 99 seats for the party that won a commanding 80-seat majority five years ago.

According to the poll, Plaid Cymru will win four seats.

Losing votes

Kelly Beaver, chief executive of Ipsos UK and Ireland said: “Labour is increasing its 2019 vote share across the country, especially in Scotland and the North East, while the Conservatives are losing votes in all regions – especially in the East and South of England, and across the Midlands.

“What is perhaps most concerning for them are signs in the data that they are particularly losing vote share in the areas where they were strongest in 2019.”

In further good news for Labour, the poll suggests that the party’s former leader Jeremy Corbyn, now standing as an independent, is set to lose the Islington North constituency he has represented since 1983.

The poll used the multilevel with poststratification (MRP) technique to model individual constituency results based on a survey of 19,689 British adults and took place between June 7-12.

It is the second poll released this week to use the technique, following a Survation poll on Monday that estimated a similarly massive Labour majority.

Gloom

Forecasts of a Labour landslide have prompted gloom from some Tories, with the Prime Minister forced to insist on Monday that his party could still win the election after Mr Shapps, the Defence Secretary, conceded that defeat was likely.

The party has responded by going on the attack, challenging Labour over taxation and warning voters that victory for the opposition could give it a “blank cheque” and put the party in power for “a generation”.

The Ipsos poll is the first MRP survey to be conducted entirely after Nigel Farage announced his bid to become MP for Clacton.

The poll suggests Mr Farage is on course to win that seat, with his Reform UK party also picking up Lee Anderson’s Ashfield constituency and possibly one other seat with 12% of the national vote.

That puts the party level in terms of seats with the Greens, who Ipsos suggests could win in Bristol Central, North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley while losing their current seat in Brighton Pavilion to Labour.

The poll also sees the Liberal Democrats making gains in the South East and South West, increasing its number of seats to 38 and regaining its position as the third party in the Commons.

Ipsos said the fate of the SNP was “still very much up in the air”, with the party running a close second to Labour in Scotland and expected to win around 15 seats, a significant reduction on the 48 seats it won in 2019.

‘Too close to call’

But the pollster acknowledged some 117 seats were still “too close to call”, with small changes in the parties’ performance possible leading to big changes in the final outcome.

Even so, Ipsos estimated that Labour would still win more than 400 seats before even considering those that were “too close to call”.

Ms Beaver said the poll was “just a snapshot of people’s current voting intentions” and there was “still time for things to change”.

She added: “But this data, in line with most of the evidence that we have seen both in the run-up to this election and since the campaign started, in terms of the mood of the nation and real election results in local elections and by-elections, suggests that the British political scene could be heading for yet another significant shift.”


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David Zenati-Parsons
David Zenati-Parsons
27 days ago

well lets hope so; and if it happens, lets hope #LabourParty shows more compassion for the disabled and vulnerable in our country than the #ToryParty did.

Dai Ponty
Dai Ponty
27 days ago

Wipe the Smarmy sleazy smiles of their faces

Riki
Riki
27 days ago

How convenient for the powers that be then that they have reform to easily take their place! Call me a conspiracy theorist if you want but it stinks….And the thing is, they seem to be worse than the Tories ever were. They want to completely scrap the NHS (not sell it off), and they want Scotland and Wales to be voiceless. That party is dangerous!

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
27 days ago

July 5th, Whitehall dole office next door to Cannon Row Police Station a queue forms, several hundred stand expecting to be head-hunted…LoL

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
27 days ago
Reply to  Mab Meirion

The thought of Cleverly and Badenough clinging on and still being there in the morning is a sickener as well as painful…

Rhufawn Jones
Rhufawn Jones
27 days ago

Labour is still a unionist party though. They also need to be wiped out of Cymru – unless they change of course and break free from their London shackles.

Fi yn unig
Fi yn unig
26 days ago

Mordaunt. Second favourite for next Tory leader and predicted to lose her seat. This is why I’m watching the results all night. I don’t want to miss a moment like this.

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