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Tories set for worst election result, major poll suggests

30 Mar 2024 3 minute read
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak giving a press conference in Downing Street. Photo Aaron Chown/PA Wire

Rishi Sunak’s Tories could be reduced to fewer than 100 MPs at the general election, a new poll has suggested.

The 15,000-person poll was used to create a seat-by-seat breakdown, which indicated the Conservatives would be wiped out in Scotland and Wales and hold just 98 seats in England.

The survey put Labour on 45% with a 19-point lead over the Tories on 26%.

The constituency forecast suggested Sir Keir Starmer’s party could be on course for a landslide, winning 468 seats.

The poll suggests the Scottish National Party would pick up 41 seats, the Liberal Democrats 22 and Plaid Cymru two.

In 2019 the Conservatives had 365 seats, Labour 203, the SNP 48, the Lib Dems 11 and Plaid four.

Reform UK

In an analysis which will fuel Conservative unease about the threat from Reform UK, the survey suggested Richard Tice’s party will come second in seven seats and achieve an overall vote share of 8.5%, just behind the Liberal Democrats on 10.4%

But a model of what would happen if Reform UK did not stand suggested the Tories would win 150 seats – still a crushing defeat, but potentially giving Mr Sunak, or more likely his replacement, a better chance to rebuild.

The study, carried out by Survation for the internationalist Best for Britain campaign group, suggested several Cabinet ministers, including potential leadership contenders, could be ousted at the election as the Tories face their worst result.

Penny Mordaunt

Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, Home Secretary James Cleverly and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps would all lose their seats, according to the study, which used a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) process to model constituency-level results.

Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch looks likely to retain her seat, along with former home secretary Suella Braverman and ex-immigration minister Robert Jenrick.

In Mr Sunak’s new Richmond and Northallerton seat, which, based on the 2019 results should be solidly Conservative, he has just a 2.4% lead over Labour, while Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has just a 1% margin over the Liberal Democrats in his new Godalming and Ash seat.

Best for Britain chief executive Naomi Smith said: “With the polling showing swathes of voters turning their backs on the Tories, it’s clear that this will be a change election.”

The poll of 15,029 adults and MRP analysis by Survation was conducted between March 8-22.

In a sign of Reform UK’s ambitions, Tory MP Bob Seely revealed he had been approached to defect to the Nigel Farage-linked party.

Writing in the Sun on Sunday, he said: “I said no to Reform because I believe in loyalty. I believed in loyalty when I served in the British Army and I believe it when I serve my constituents on the Isle of Wight, and I believe in it when I am supporting Rishi Sunak.

“I don’t cut and run, and neither should we.”

A Reform spokesman told the newspaper: “If he wants to turn down the only chance he has of saving his skin, well, that’s up to him.”

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3 months ago

That wouldn’t be a bad result for the SNP all things considered. Challenge there for Plaid. However, with Labour winning off the back of the English vote, they haven’t got the “stop the tories” as a credible line anymore. Imagine the difference a Plaid majority would make to the constitutional direction of Britain. Sinn Feinn, SNP and Plaid majorities would signal an end to the Unionist consensus. Then we can talk about replacing the UK. I look forward to the day.

Linda Jones
Linda Jones
3 months ago

The tories have all but destroyed the UK infrastructure thanks to their weird monetarist policies. They clearly dont know what they are doing and deserve to be wiped out. Having said that I dont feel Labour offer much hope given they follow the same tory mantra.
Independance and a democratic socialist government is the only way forward. Plaid where are you?

3 months ago

Braveman and Sunak possibly retaining their seat? Cant have everything I suppose, one of those will go ballistic far right (even more than now) and the other disappear to a tech bro company.

Worry is what will the PM try before the election to cling on. A cornered evil sod will do whatever it takes, he probably thinks more of his legacy than the harm done. That and his parachuting out of the UK.

3 months ago

This analysis is probably based on a uniform swing applied to every seat. The local dynamics are therefore missing. Following the recent constituency polls in Ynys Mon and Carmarthenshire reported on by Nation.Cymru showing Plaid wins, the strong local Plaid candidates selected I would expect to see these seats returning Plaid MPs to add to the two shown in the poll.

Dai Ponty
Dai Ponty
3 months ago

First of all i hope the Tories are wiped out in Wales and the Torie will cling to Power to the very end the General Election i think will be January 2025

Fi yn unig
Fi yn unig
3 months ago

Reform UK is the drain plug at the bottom of the Tory cess pit. If the plug is lifted, the filth starts dribbling away. If the plug were to be lifted higher, the pit will empty completely and what will be left is just a dirty little plug. I would much prefer to think that nobody would want to vote for the dirty little plug but given the outcome of its’ removal, it would be a valuable service performed. As a ‘Faith No More’ track once put it, ‘It’s a dirty job but someone’s got to do it’.

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