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Tory losses deepen as Starmer claims Labour is on course for general election win

05 May 2023 7 minute read
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer joins party members in Chatham, Kent, where Labour has taken overall control of Medway Council for the first time since 1998. Photo Gareth Fuller PA Images

Sir Keir Starmer was celebrating wins in key battlegrounds as an indication Labour is on course to win the next general election, as Rishi Sunak remained defiant despite heavy losses.

The Prime Minister was under pressure as the local election results being declared on Friday showed both Labour and the Lib Dems seizing control of Tory councils across England.

The Labour leader said the “fantastic” results combined with a hoped-for recovery in Scotland would give him a majority in Westminster after a national poll.

With nearly half of authorities having declared, the Conservatives had lost 22 local authorities and more than 300 councillors.

Sir Keir’s party was projected to have won a nine-point lead over the Conservatives if all of Britain had gone to the polls, as the Tories slid backwards.

Labour seized councils in Tory MPs’ seats that would be hotly contested at a general election, including in Swindon, Medway and East Staffordshire.


Mr Sunak conceded the results were “disappointing” but said he was “not detecting any massive groundswell of movement towards the Labour Party or excitement for its agenda”.

But the Tories will be concerned by Labour wins in the North, South and Midlands and a resurgent Lib Dems, as the prospect of a general election in 2024 looms.

Vote share analysis by the BBC put Labour on 35%, the Tories on 26% and the Lib Dems on 20%. That was the same for Labour last year, but the Conservatives had sunk from 30%.

A day of celebration for Sir Keir started with a visit to Medway, where he welcomed “fantastic results across the country” in “places we need to win”, citing victories in Plymouth, Stoke and Middlesbrough, where his party won the mayoralty.

“Make no mistake, we are on course for a Labour majority at the next general election,” Sir Keir said.

“We’ve changed our party. We’ve won the trust, the confidence of voters, and now we can go on to change our country. Change is possible. A better Britain is possible.”

His party will run the Kent authority for the first time since 1998, with the outgoing Conservative council leader telling No 10 to “get their act together” on several fronts.

Both Swindon in Wiltshire and Erewash Council in Derbyshire had been controlled by the Conservatives for 20 years until the results of Thursday’s local elections.

North Swindon Tory MP Justin Tomlinson said the Conservatives had to take the “dreadful” results as a “wake-up call”.

Leader of the Liberal Democrats Sir Ed Davey during a visit to Windsor, Berkshire, where the Conservatives lost control of Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead council in the local elections. Andrew Matthews/PA Wire

The Lib Dems won Windsor & Maidenhead from the Conservatives and hope to have taken Stratford-on-Avon.

In central London, Mr Sunak was understood to have thanked staff for their efforts, and said the results were always going to be tough but that the state of play has improved since he took over six months ago after the leaderships of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.

The Prime Minister told broadcasters it was “hard to draw firm conclusions” from the initial results.

“It’s always disappointing to lose hardworking Conservative councillors, they’re friends, they’re colleagues and I’m so grateful to them for everything they’ve done,” he said.

“But in terms of the results, it’s still early. We’ve just had a quarter of the results in, but what I am going to carry on doing is delivering on the people’s priorities.”

Mr Sunak cited his priorities as halving inflation, growing the economy, reducing debt, cutting NHS waiting lists and “stopping the boats”, adding: “That’s what people want us to do. That’s what I’m going to keep hard at doing.”

The Prime Minister said the Tories are “making progress in key electoral battlegrounds like Peterborough, Bassetlaw, Sandwell”.

The inroads for the Tories are debatable. In Sandwell, they have gained two of 24 seats, while Labour has gained four and held 18 more.

In Hertsmere, where Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden is MP, the Tories have lost control of the council, with 13 councillors voted out, while Labour has gained seven and the Lib Dems six.

The Conservatives lost control of Welwyn Hatfield, represented in Parliament by Energy Secretary Grant Shapps, where both the Lib Dems and Labour made gains.

The Tories also lost overall control in North West Leicestershire, Brentwood, East Lindsey and Hertsmere, as Labour won Blackpool.


Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice told the PA news agency the “jury is still out” on whether Labour has made progress as a party and said it is not experiencing the level of success seen ahead of Sir Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide.

“Labour are going to have their biggest lead over the Conservatives in terms of votes than at any point since 2010, but it’s going to be as much to do with the Conservatives being down as much as it is Labour being up,” he said.

Government minister and local MP Johnny Mercer said Labour gaining control of Plymouth, where the Tories had run a minority administration, was “terrible”.

The veterans minister blamed the loss on local factors including the council’s decision to fell dozens of trees in the city centre, as he defended Mr Sunak as the “strong leader this country needs”.

Stoke-on-Trent North Tory MP Jonathan Gullis told Sky News councillors have “suffered because, at the end of 2022, the Conservative Party as a brand was certainly damaged”.

In Tamworth, the seat of scandal-hit former Tory whip Chris Pincher, Labour has made seven gains, pushing it from Conservative into no overall control.

But Labour’s attempts to regain Hull from the Lib Dems failed, with Sir Ed Davey’s party tightening its grip on the authority, and Labour lost control of Slough to the Tories.

With full results from 117 of the 230 councils where elections were held:

– The Tories have lost 22 councils and suffered a net loss of 307 councillors.

– Labour has gained control of eight councils and added 241 councillors.

– The Liberal Democrats have gained four council and 128 councillors.

– The Green Party has gained 54 councillors.


Sir Ed said it has been a “groundbreaking night” for the Lib Dems.

“We are exceeding all expectations. We have delivered a hammer blow to the Conservative Party in the blue wall ahead of next year’s general election,” he said.

But the elections were described as a “dark day for British democracy” by campaigners opposed to the introduction of photo ID, who claimed thousands of people were denied their right to vote.

The contests were the first to be held under new rules requiring voters to carry photographic ID and the elections watchdog said some people were turned away from polling stations.

An Electoral Commission spokesman said: “We already know from our research that the ID requirement posed a greater challenge for some groups in society and that some people were regrettably unable to vote as a result.

“It will be essential to understand the extent of this impact, and the reasons behind it, before a final view can be taken on how the policy has worked in practice and what can be learned for future elections.”

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1 year ago

The powers that be want a Labour win as they know Labour will do everything it can to keep the UK together. while the Tories, although unionists themselves are inherently English nationalists who wouldn’t really care as much as labour should all the nations go their own way.

Ernie The Smallholder
Ernie The Smallholder
1 year ago

As Wales, Scotland and England do not have compulsory national ID cards denying people the right to vote without ID is undemocratic.
As the ERS (Electoral Reform society) pointed out some IDs are acceptable while others are not.
ERS was reported that a police officer’s ID warrant was not accepted but a bus pass was.

Don’t trust the Tories – They want a UK to be as Putin’s Russia –
They think the Belrussian style voting system (FPTP) is fair.

The original mark
The original mark
1 year ago

Once they have compulsory id for voting its just one small step to compulsory id cards for everyone. I imagine Blunket and Blair are getting very excited.

Steve A Duggan
Steve A Duggan
1 year ago

What these local elections really show us, here in Wales, is no matter how we vote – it will be what happens in England that will determine who rules us from Westminster. That, after all is where the most seats are. As an independence country we’ll know that every vote will count towards how we control our our affairs.

1 year ago

Overconfidence is a real danger for Labour now, people can and do vote differently in local to general elections, and for a General Election Keir Starmer needs to actually put a real program before the electorate, not just say don’t worry I won’t do what I promised and pledged to do last time around.
There also seems to be an expectation with Labour that they’ll magically have loads of seats in Scotland back without having to do anything for them.

1 year ago

It would appear that the public in England have voted to gamed the FPTP system to smash the Tory party in these elections. The gains for Labour match the gains for the Liberal Democrats and Greens. In the past this voting system has resulted in splitting the progressive vote and letting the Tories in through the middle. This is no longer the case and with voters going for who can beat the Tories they are in real trouble. Just hope the penny will drop with Starmer and he will go for a fair voting system that will give voters what… Read more »

Last edited 1 year ago by Geraint

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