US stock market buckles as fears of fallout from tariffs shake markets

Stan Choe, Associated Press

Wall Street shuddered and a level of shock unseen since Covid’s outbreak tore through financial markets worldwide on Thursday over worries about the damage President Donald Trump’s newest set of tariffs could do to economies across continents, including his own.

The S&P 500 sank 4.8%, more than in major markets across Asia and Europe, for its worst day since the pandemic crashed the economy in 2020.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,679 points, or 4%, and the Nasdaq composite tumbled 6%.

Little was spared in financial markets as fear flared about the potentially toxic mix of weakening economic growth and higher inflation that tariffs can create.

Everything from crude oil to Big Tech stocks to the value of the US dollar against other currencies fell.

Even gold, which hit records recently as investors sought something safer to own, pulled lower. Some of the worst hits walloped smaller US companies, and the Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks dropped 6.6% to pull more than 20% below its record.

Investors worldwide knew Mr Trump was going to announce a sweeping set of tariffs late on Wednesday, and fears surrounding it had already pulled Wall Street’s main measure of health, the S&P 500 index, 10% below its all-time high.

‘Worst case scenario’

But the president still managed to surprise them with “the worst-case scenario for tariffs,” according to Mary Ann Bartels, chief investment officer at Sanctuary Wealth.

Mr Trump announced a minimum tariff of 10% on imports, with the tax rate running much higher on products from certain countries like China and those from the European Union.

It’s “plausible” the tariffs altogether, which would rival levels unseen in roughly a century, could knock down US economic growth by two percentage points this year and raise inflation close to 5%, according to UBS.

Such a hit would be so big that it “makes one’s rational mind regard the possibility of them sticking as low,” according to Bhanu Baweja and other strategists at UBS.

Wall Street had long assumed Mr Trump would use tariffs merely as a tool for negotiations with other countries, rather than as a long-term policy.

But Wednesday’s announcement may suggest that he sees tariffs more as helping to solve an ideological goal than as an opening bet in a poker game.

Manufacturing jobs

Mr Trump talked about wresting manufacturing jobs back to the United States, a process that could take years.

If he follows through on his tariffs, stock prices may need to fall much more than 10% from their all-time high in order to reflect the recession that could follow, along with the hit to profits that US companies could take.

The S&P 500 is now down 11.8% from its record set in February.

“Markets may actually be underreacting, especially if these rates turn out to be final, given the potential knock-on effects to global consumption and trade,” said Sean Sun, portfolio manager at Thornburg Investment Management, though he sees Mr Trump’s announcement on Wednesday as more of an opening move than an endpoint for policy.

The president offered an upbeat reaction after he was asked about the market’s drop as he left the White House to fly to his Florida golf club on Thursday.

“I think it’s going very well,” he said. “We have an operation, like when a patient gets operated on and it’s a big thing. I said this would exactly be the way it is.”

One wild card is that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in order to support the economy, which it had been doing late last year before pausing in 2025.

Lower interest rates help by making it easier for US companies and households to borrow and spend.

Yields on treasuries tumbled, in part on rising expectations for coming cuts to rates, along with general fear about the health of the US economy.

The yield on the 10-year treasury fell to 4.04% from 4.20% late on Wednesday and from roughly 4.80% in January, which is a huge move for the bond market.

Inflation

The Fed may have less freedom to move than it would like, though. While lower rates can goose the economy, they can also push upward on inflation and worries are already worsening about that because of tariffs, with US households in particular bracing for sharp increases to their bills.

The US economy at the moment is still growing, of course. A report on Thursday said fewer US workers applied for unemployment benefits last week.

Economists had been expecting to see an uptick in joblessness, and a relatively solid job market has been the linchpin keeping the economy out of recession.

A separate report said activity for US transportation, finance and other businesses in the services industry grew last month, but the growth was weaker than expected, and businesses gave a mixed picture of how they see conditions.

Worries about a potentially stagnating economy and high inflation knocked down all kinds of stocks, leading to drops for four out of every five that make up the S&P 500.

Best Buy fell 17.8% because the electronics that it sells are made all over the world.

United Airlines lost 15.6% because customers worried about the global economy may not fly as much for business or feel comfortable enough to take holidays.

Target tumbled 10.9% amid worries that its customers, already squeezed by still-high inflation, may be under even more stress.

All told, the S&P 500 fell 274.45 points to 5,396.52; The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 1,679.39 to 40,545.93; and the Nasdaq composite tumbled 1,050.44 to 16,550.61.

In stock markets abroad, indexes fell sharply worldwide.

France’s CAC 40 dropped 3.3%, and Germany’s DAX lost 3% in Europe.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 sank 2.8%; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 1.5% and South Korea’s Kospi dropped 0.8%.