Wales would now vote to Remain in the EU, according to two new polls

A Welsh dragon on the EU flag

Wales would vote to remain in the EU if the poll was re-run, according to the projections of two new polls published today.

A Survation poll projected that only Pembrokeshire, Torfaen, Flintshire and Wrexham would vote to Leave the EU today, and by small margins of 50.29%, 51.3%, 50.53% and 51.53%.

A YouGov poll for ITV and Cardiff University also projected that 51% would now vote to Remain in Wales, with 20% voting to leave with a deal and 30% with no deal if voters in Wales were offered those three options in a hypothetical referendum.

However, only 41% supported a second referendum in the YouGov poll, with 49% in opposition.

In July 2016, 854,572 (52.5%) voters in Wales chose to leave the EU, compared with 772,347 (47.5%) supporting Remain.

Only five areas – Gwynedd, Cardiff, Ceredigion, the Vale of Glamorgan and Monmouthshire – voted for Remain.

Survation’s survey of 20,090 people living in the UK, across every parliamentary constituency, was featured as part of a live discussion programme on Channel 4, “Brexit: What The Nation Really Thinks”.

According to the survey, the average Leave vote across Wales would be 46%. Here is the full breakdown of figures for Wales from the Survation poll:

 

Local Authority Leave share 2016 Estimate leave share 2018 Change in support for Leave % would accept the deal
Isle of Anglesey 50.94% 44.17% -6.77% 42.80%
Gwynedd 41.95% 36.47% -5.48% 42.90%
Conwy 53.98% 48.27% -5.71% 45.00%
Denbighshire 54.00% 49.25% -4.75% 44.50%
Flintshire 56.37% 50.53% -5.84% 45.80%
Wrexham 59.04% 51.53% -7.51% 43.70%
Ceredigion 45.37% 37.08% -8.29% 44.00%
Pembrokeshire 57.14% 50.29% -6.85% 45.80%
Carmarthenshire 53.75% 45.04% -8.71% 42.70%
Swansea 51.51% 43.16% -8.35% 42.20%
Neath Port Talbot 56.84% 46.46% -10.38% 40.30%
Bridgend 54.64% 46.70% -7.94% 43.20%
Vale of Glamorgan 49.27% 45.85% -3.42% 44.50%
Cardiff 39.98% 35.24% -4.74% 41.80%
Rhondda Cynon Taf 53.70% 43.49% -10.21% 41.20%
Caerphilly 57.63% 47.58% -10.05% 41.30%
Blaenau Gwent 62.03% 49.07% -12.96% 40.10%
Torfaen 59.78% 51.30% -8.48% 42.60%
Monmouthshire 49.56% 46.47% -3.09% 45.70%
Newport 55.99% 48.25% -7.74% 42.70%
Powys 53.74% 49.10% -4.64% 47.60%
Merthyr Tydfil 56.44% 47.03% -9.41% 40.30%

 

Local Authority % think goods checks acceptable % think live/work in other countries acceptable % think manufacturing regulations acceptable % think limits of trade deals acceptable
Isle of Anglesey 43.40% 74.70% 60.40% 21.50%
Gwynedd 45.10% 75.00% 64.30% 23.40%
Conwy 43.40% 73.00% 58.30% 19.80%
Denbighshire 42.90% 73.20% 59.00% 21.10%
Flintshire 42.80% 70.30% 57.30% 21.10%
Wrexham 44.70% 71.00% 58.90% 22.20%
Ceredigion 43.90% 78.20% 64.00% 23.20%
Pembrokeshire 43.60% 73.60% 57.70% 21.20%
Carmarthenshire 45.60% 71.60% 59.70% 22.80%
Swansea 43.60% 74.60% 60.60% 23.10%
Neath Port Talbot 45.10% 71.10% 60.20% 24.10%
Bridgend 42.60% 72.70% 58.70% 22.60%
Vale of Glamorgan 40.00% 74.50% 59.90% 20.50%
Cardiff 43.10% 77.40% 65.60% 24.80%
Rhondda Cynon Taf 43.90% 73.90% 60.80% 23.60%
Caerphilly 42.10% 70.60% 59.00% 22.50%
Blaenau Gwent 47.30% 71.30% 58.50% 23.80%
Torfaen 43.60% 71.80% 57.80% 22.30%
Monmouthshire 39.70% 74.40% 58.40% 18.90%
Newport 44.80% 71.10% 58.90% 22.60%
Powys 41.20% 74.70% 58.30% 20.10%
Merthyr Tydfil 43.50% 71.40% 59.60% 23.00%

 

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