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Welsh applications to university continue to fall

13 Feb 2025 4 minute read
University graduates.. Photo Chris Radburn/PA Wire.

New UCAS figures published today show a continued and concerning decline in the proportion of people in Wales choosing to apply to university.

In its applicant data for the January Equal Consideration deadline, the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service revealed that the proportion of 18-year-olds from Wales applying to UK universities has continued to fall. This is alongside a decline in applications from mature students in Wales.

The figures show that Wales has the lowest proportion of 18 year-olds applying for university in the UK, with only 32% of Welsh 18-year-olds applying to university this year compared to 33.2% last year.

Universities Wales say that this is particularly concerning when compared to the UK as a whole, where the figure stands at 40.6%.

Widening gap

The figures show a widening participation gap between the least and most advantaged students in Wales. The proportion of 18-year-olds applying from WIMD Q1 has decreased to 20.1%, while those from Q5 has increased by 0.3%.

Disadvantaged students in Wales are also less likely to access university, compared to other parts of the UK

According to the figures, applications from mature students in Wales have also continued to decline, particularly in the 25-34 age group.

Wales now has the fewest numbers of mature students applying to university than at any point in the past decade.

If unaddressed, Universities Wales fear this decline in people attending university will have long-term implications for the future prosperity of the nation and the opportunities available to today’s students and future generations.

“Alarming”

Universities Wales highlighted concerns around falling participation rates in its evidence to the Senedd’s Children Young People and Education Committee’s recent inquiry into routes into post-16 education and training.

Beyond university, Wales is also seeing an “alarming fall” in people staying in full-time post-16 education according to Universities Wales.

A-Level participation rates in Wales are significantly lower than in England, with just 33% of young people studying A-levels compared to 47% in England.

“Long term implications for Wales”

Universities Wales Director, Amanda Wilkinson, said: “There is now clear and consistent evidence that fewer people in Wales are engaging with education beyond the compulsory age of 16 – and fewer going to university than at any point in the past decade.

“This is a concerning situation which will have long term implications for Wales. The industries that will drive our economic growth in the decades to come rely heavily on graduates.

“If Welsh people are not gaining these skills, Wales’ economy will find itself at an economic disadvantage compared to the rest of the UK, where the proportion of graduates in the workforce will be higher.

 “But it’s not just our economy and public services that will be affected. It will also result in a lack of opportunities for the people who would benefit from the transformative experience on offer at university.

“This stark issue presents the very real possibility that future generations of young people in Wales will be less qualified than those that have gone before them.”

Universities Wales is calling for urgent action from Welsh Government and Medr to address this participation crisis. This includes boosting the numbers of young people undertaking qualifications and training that open up access to the higher-level skills that Wales needs for the future.

Ms Wilkinson added: “It is crucial that Welsh Government and Medr work to understand how to improve and support Welsh participation in post-16 education to secure opportunities for today’s students and future generations.”

Welsh Government response

A Welsh Government Spokesperson said: “It is positive to see a rise in the number of 18-year-old Welsh applicants from a disadvantaged background applying to university.

“However, it is disappointing to see a slight decrease in the number of 18-year-olds in Wales applying to university.

“We are working to increase participation across all post-16 learning options.

“This includes investing £1.5m into activities that will improve participation, and investing in improving school attendance and attainment as these are key to increasing tertiary participation longer term.”


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Evan Aled Bayton
Evan Aled Bayton
5 months ago

When I sat my A levels in Carmarthen Grammar School in 1976 I think 5% of people in Wales sat A levels and about 3% went to university. I am happy to be corrected. There were lots of other career options and some entered the 6th Form to get references after a term or two of study to do articles in Law or Accountancy a form of apprenticeship. A lot of people went on to vocational colleges like Newport College of Art or teacher training or Agricultural college. To be honest many of these colleges offered better deals than today’s… Read more »

Karl
Karl
5 months ago

With awful high debt, it’s easy to be put off. Lets not be sucked the lib dem lie about it not bring an issue. Doesn’t exactly lead to high wage jobs too. This is a creation of bad UK governance, filtering down to us.

John
John
5 months ago
Reply to  Karl

The ‘pay premium’ of getting a degree has gone down over the past 20 years, but it is still higher than other post-16 routes and certainly pays off. One of the challenges we have in Wales is the Universities are not the best even in the UK. I think Cardiff is the only one ranked regularly even in the top 40. The mean salary is 22k which is much lower than say Cambridge. But the bigger loss by not having top rate Universities is the loss of new opportunities such as new spin-outs, as the better Universities have much better… Read more »

Anonymous
Anonymous
5 months ago

Not going to lie looked at some statistics, and saw that a higher percentage of students in England were awarded higher grades in A level. They should really look into this.

Ali Morris
Ali Morris
5 months ago

The scandal is that 32% of all 18yr olds are deemed suitable for university! University is supposed to be for the elite in their field, the top people in the country. The dumbing down of university education, which is what is happening, is the problem. We are pushing these young people into a system where they shouldn’t be. Tony Blair got it wrong. There is nothing wrong with NOT going to university but there needs to be other options for these young people like jobs and apprenticeships. University is now big business, crumbling under its own greed. Whole cities taken… Read more »

John
John
5 months ago
Reply to  Ali Morris

The oecd average is 44 %, so 32 % is low. I might go so far to say the uk’s horrendous productivity stats are in part related to lack of skills. In any case, times have changed and the economy is much more knowledge based than 30 years ago, and degree level education is needed and more sought.

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