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Welsh Conservatives would face near-wipeout at General Election, new poll suggest

09 Jul 2022 3 minute read
David TC Davies and Alun Cairns picture by Richard Townshend (CC BY 3.0). Simon Hart photo by Chris McAndrew (CC BY 3.0).

Welsh Conservative MPs would face a near-wipeout if a General Election were to be held now, a new poll suggests.

The projections come as a new Survation poll, conducted as Boris Johnson’s administration was falling apart, suggested that Labour had opened up a 14% lead over the Conservatives across Britain, by 45% to 31%.

That would leave Labour with an 88-seat majority, up 210 seats from their current number.

If that swing was replicated in Wales, the Welsh Conservatives would be reduced from 14 to only two MPs, with Simon Hart of Carmarthen East and South Pembrokeshire, who was Welsh Secretary until this week, among those swept away by the red tide.

Using Election Polling‘s swingometer tool, the polling data suggests that only Craig Williams of Montgomeryshire and Fay Jones of Brecon and Radnorshire would be left standing.

The same poll’s smaller Welsh subsample suggests that Craig Williams would lose his seat to the Liberal Democrats but David TC Davies of Monmouthshire would survive, as well as Simon Hart of Carmarthen East and South Pembrokeshire.

The poll suggests that MPs Alun Cairns, Jamie Wallis, Virginia Crosbie, Sarah Atherton, Robin Millar, Stephen Crabb, James Davies, David Jones, and Simon Baynes would all lose their seats.

That includes the constituencies of Aberconwy, Bridgend, Clwyd South, Clwyd West, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Vale of Clwyd, Vale of Glamorgan, Wrexham and Ynys Mon.

Rob Roberts of Delyn, now sitting as an independent, would also lose his seat, although he may be unlikely to be a candidate.

‘Highest we’ve seen’

Survation said that the numbers in the poll were “extraordinary figures” but cautioned that it was one poll conducted at a particularly bad time for the Conservatives.

“Labour’s 45% showing would be the highest we’ve seen for the party in the current parliament from any pollster,” they said.

“In fact we have to go back to a Survation poll published December 4th 2017 to find such a figure for the party when Corbyn’s Labour, possibly still with a post election spring in their step, had a matching vote share albeit with a smaller 8 point lead over Theresa May’s Conservatives.

“A snap General Election, which the Prime Minister was loathe to rule out this week, with this type of party vote shares would have theoretically resulted in a Labour Majority of 88, using regional swing in England & Wales and our latest Scotland only polling.”

Survation conducted online polling of 1,052 adults in the United Kingdom on July 6th 2022.


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Cathy Jones
Cathy Jones
1 month ago

…and rightly so. Get them gone. You can’t trust them, look at how many times old R.T. Davis has come out in support of Johnson, even after the slime bag gave his non-resignation speech… …and the reason they supported Johnson for as long as they did (which was way past too long and the point where one could be given some kind of kudos for having resigned in protest*) is because he behaves how all Tories either behave without getting caught out or would like to behave if only they had at least the courage of their own twisted ideals.… Read more »

Kerry Davies
Kerry Davies
1 month ago

Three of those that might survive, Topcat Davies, Feeble Fay Jones and Craig “Who he” Williams have the river Wye flowing through their constituencuies and all three plus the three English Tories that host the rest of the river voted not to stop water companies dumping raw sewage in it.

Old land of the mountains, paradise of the poets

Every valley, every cliff a beauty guards;

Through love of my country, enchanting voices will be

Her streams and rivers to me

Arwyn
Arwyn
1 month ago

A Labour majority is bad news for Welsh and Scottish independence. A hung parliament in which SNP votes are critical will force Labour and Lib Dems to move on their constitutional policies. If Labour get a sizeable majority then their constitutional approach will hinge on the Starmer-Brown-Sarwar pivot. Starmer has already alluded to what that means … Labour will unilaterally impose a devolution settlement on the UK with no referendum. So rather than a headbanging right wing centralist British Nationalist constitutional vision imposed on Wales by the Tories, we will get the sight of Labour politicians on a moral high… Read more »

I.Humphrys
I.Humphrys
1 month ago
Reply to  Arwyn

No nationalist should trust socialists. From Keir Hardie on, it’s all bs.

hdavies15
hdavies15
1 month ago
Reply to  I.Humphrys

Anybody who thinks Wales will be treated with greater respect by a Labour regime in London possesses no memory, no reading or listening abilities, no sense at all.

The original mark
The original mark
1 month ago
Reply to  I.Humphrys

Are you insinuating that Labour UK are socialists? It might use the word socialist on the membership card, but that’s as far as it goes.

Craig Ab Iago
Craig Ab Iago
1 month ago
Reply to  Arwyn

Spot on mate. A Tory government with a slim majority and no Welsh seats is the perfect scenario.

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
1 month ago

The rivers and lakes of my beloved Meirionnydd are so dear to me…

The scent of the wet grass of Ardudwy will carry me through eternity, smiling…

The thought of a Tory free Cymru will sustain me beyond the grave…

Bring on this election, if only for the soul of Cymru…

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
1 month ago
Reply to  Mab Meirion

To whom it may concern…the Abermaw/Barmouth Three Peaks Yacht Race begins this afternoon, if anyone would like to view the action on the harbour the Barmouth Yacht Club’s 3 webcams show it is a beautiful day on the Mawddach. Not much wind to start with from the line at 5pm, boats leave the harbour at 4pm just as the tide turns. It could be a hot and tiring pull on the sweeps… It can be followed via a tracker on the internet, also for those unfamiliar with this long standing (1977) sailing, cycling and running race to Scotland via Caernarfon,… Read more »

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
1 month ago
Reply to  Mab Meirion

There is race in progress that is a lesson in life. You follow a leader into the jaws of Hell’s Mouth and without the knowledge and luck of this knowing chancer you come unstuck in Bardsey Sound, headed by the wind, at the mercy of the tides, becalmed by fate in life’s darkest danger, rocky shoals thunder left and right, your fear flickers in the eyes of your companions, nostrils coated in vomit after your last supper deserts you. Three currents crash and explode with Neptune’s boiling swells that rise all around you, waiting for the dawn to bring the… Read more »

I.Humphrys
I.Humphrys
1 month ago

Must work harder to ensure none of ’em remain……………and don’t return!

Y Cymro
Y Cymro
1 month ago

The sun’s out, sky is blue, and Wales Tory MPs face total wipe out if & when there’s a General Election. Can this day get any better?! 🥳 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

Gaynor
Gaynor
1 month ago

A wipe out of arsewipes ?

Quornby
Quornby
1 month ago

Goodbye, good riddance.

Geraint
Geraint
1 month ago

Hart is MP for Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire not Carmarthen East and South Pembrokeshire.

Quornby
Quornby
1 month ago

Let it be.

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