Welsh Conservatives would face near-wipeout at General Election, new poll suggest
Welsh Conservative MPs would face a near-wipeout if a General Election were to be held now, a new poll suggests.
The projections come as a new Survation poll, conducted as Boris Johnson’s administration was falling apart, suggested that Labour had opened up a 14% lead over the Conservatives across Britain, by 45% to 31%.
That would leave Labour with an 88-seat majority, up 210 seats from their current number.
If that swing was replicated in Wales, the Welsh Conservatives would be reduced from 14 to only two MPs, with Simon Hart of Carmarthen East and South Pembrokeshire, who was Welsh Secretary until this week, among those swept away by the red tide.
Using Election Polling‘s swingometer tool, the polling data suggests that only Craig Williams of Montgomeryshire and Fay Jones of Brecon and Radnorshire would be left standing.
The same poll’s smaller Welsh subsample suggests that Craig Williams would lose his seat to the Liberal Democrats but David TC Davies of Monmouthshire would survive, as well as Simon Hart of Carmarthen East and South Pembrokeshire.
The poll suggests that MPs Alun Cairns, Jamie Wallis, Virginia Crosbie, Sarah Atherton, Robin Millar, Stephen Crabb, James Davies, David Jones, and Simon Baynes would all lose their seats.
That includes the constituencies of Aberconwy, Bridgend, Clwyd South, Clwyd West, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Vale of Clwyd, Vale of Glamorgan, Wrexham and Ynys Mon.
Rob Roberts of Delyn, now sitting as an independent, would also lose his seat, although he may be unlikely to be a candidate.
‘Highest we’ve seen’
Survation said that the numbers in the poll were “extraordinary figures” but cautioned that it was one poll conducted at a particularly bad time for the Conservatives.
“Labour’s 45% showing would be the highest we’ve seen for the party in the current parliament from any pollster,” they said.
“In fact we have to go back to a Survation poll published December 4th 2017 to find such a figure for the party when Corbyn’s Labour, possibly still with a post election spring in their step, had a matching vote share albeit with a smaller 8 point lead over Theresa May’s Conservatives.
“A snap General Election, which the Prime Minister was loathe to rule out this week, with this type of party vote shares would have theoretically resulted in a Labour Majority of 88, using regional swing in England & Wales and our latest Scotland only polling.”
Survation conducted online polling of 1,052 adults in the United Kingdom on July 6th 2022.
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