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Welsh independence poll boost with surge amongst young people

19 Jul 2023 3 minute read
Picture by All Under One Banner Cymru

The latest polling figures for Welsh independence has shown a majority of young people in favour of leaving the Union.

The poll by Redfield and Wilton Strategies revealed that the majority of 18 to 24-year-olds (53%) said they would vote for independence. With don’t knows removed, this stands at 55%.

The majority of 25 to 34-year-olds (52%) also said they would vote ‘yes’ to self-determination.

In an overall vote the results were 58% for No, 32% for Yes – up to two percentage points from last month – with 10% saying Don’t Know.

However, with Don’t Knows removed, 36% of people would vote Yes if there were to be a referendum tomorrow on the question “Should Wales be an independent country?”.

The majorities of those aged 35 to 44 (55%), 45 to 54 (66%), 55 to 64 (55%), and 65+ (70%) would vote No in a referendum.

On the question of whether an independence referendum should take place—and if so, when – 39% would oppose a referendum on Welsh independence being held in the next year, while 33% – up three percentage points – would support one being held in this timeframe.

There was a split on whether a referendum should be held if the UK Government does not agree to it. A total of 35% said a poll should only be held if Westminster gives the green light, but 34% disagreed with this condition.

YesCymru has said support for independence is now consistently at 1 in 3, without “a proper national conversation having occurred”.

CEO Gwern Gwynfil said: “Recent polls show a consistent and deepening move towards independence for Wales.

“In June and July we’ve seen a majority of 18-34 year olds in favour of independence. They are the future. Time for the older generation to also be ambitious, brave and confident. Time to look to a brighter, better, bolder future as an independent nation.”

Meanwhile, approval ratings in Wales for both Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer were down.

The Prime Minister has an approval rating of -26% (down 9%) while the Labour leader has fallen into minus figures, with his rating now at -5% (down 4%).

The poll was conducted by Redfield and Wilton Strategies between July 14 and 18.


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Peter Cuthbert
Peter Cuthbert
8 months ago

Good to hear the news, but sad to see that the Boomers are so much against it. Surely I cannot be the only Wrinkle to see the merits of ditching Tory Westminster control.

Fi yn unig
Fi yn unig
8 months ago
Reply to  Peter Cuthbert

No you are not as I am another. Our country should have been free for all of these six annexed centuries but just in my lifetime, and as the last straw, we should have been declaring independence at Thatchers’ third term in 1987, the point at which the permanent direction of travel had clearly been established and STILL our country does not vote for it. The youth will be our salvation (we hope).

A.Redman
A.Redman
8 months ago

Numbers polled and demographic?

CapM
CapM
8 months ago
Reply to  A.Redman

Are you suggesting that Redfield and Wilton Strategies handed round a questionnaire in a pub in Caernarfon!

The Redfield and Wilton Strategies website provides details.
1050 polled.

Padi Phillips
Padi Phillips
8 months ago

Encouraging signs indeed. Hardly any surprise that the two unionist leaders have a minus level of popularity, and this being Wales, it is very significant that Starmer is as unpopular as he is – but that’s entirely down to him and his determination to run with existing oppressive Tory policies, especially those that continually impoverish people, especially children. The arguments that there isn’t enough money available to change these things is known to be a lie. By now most people will be well aware of the relatively easy choices that could be made to change the current lack of finances… Read more »

Rob
Rob
8 months ago

Normally the older you get the more right wing you become, but I don’t think that this is applicable here. Younger people have always known Wales under a devolved government, they were either too young or weren’t even around when the 1997 referendum took place. For them it doesn’t make sense for Wales to be ruled from London, anymore than it would make sense for Portugal to be ruled by Madrid. I wonder how many on the No/don’t know would be in favour of further devolution or devo-max? In other words Wales still part of the UK but has the… Read more »

CJPh
CJPh
8 months ago

Encouraging to see: These are the thought-leaders of the future. Support for our independence tends to be more durable than other political positions, in my experience (perhaps because it transcends both the current political systems and political thought itself).

Hold your horses: Younger people don’t tend to vote.

hdavies15
hdavies15
8 months ago
Reply to  CJPh

Any party that can mobilise a chunk of that c.50% who choose not to vote would be in a position to shift the balance quite dramatically. Yet there is no evidence of anyone getting stuck into what must be a medium/long term task not something done in 6-8 weeks before an election.

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