Welsh Labour MPs on course to lose their seats to Reform, says poll
Martin Shipton
Three prominent Welsh Labour MPs, all of them Ministers, would lose their seats to Reform UK if a general election was held now, according to a “megapoll” carried out for the Sunday Times.
Sir Chris Bryant would lose Rhondda and Ogmore, Dame Nia Griffith would lose Llanelli and Stephen Kinnock would be defeated in Aberafan Maesteg, the poll undertaken for the think tank More in Common suggests.
Until winning the enlarged constituency in July’s general election, Sir Chris had been MP for Rhondda since 2001. He currently holds two roles in the UK Government as Minister of State for Data Protection and Telecoms and Minister of State for Creative Industries, Arts and Tourism.
Dame Nia is a Minister at the Wales Office and has been the MP for Llanelli since 2005. In July she had a majority of just 1,504 votes over Reform.
Mr Kinnock is the son of former Labour leader Lord Neil Kinnock and is Minister of State for Care. He was first elected to Westminster in 2015 to represent the former constituency of Aberavon.
Mid and South Pembrokeshire Labour MP Henry Tufnell, who won the newly created seat in July, would lose it to the Conservatives, according to the poll.
Several other results in Wales would be extremely tight, with Swansea West Labour MP Torsten Bell just 0.6% ahead of the Conservatives and 0.7% ahead of Reform.
Wide-ranging
While relatively few seats would change hands in Wales, in England and Scotland the changes would be much more wide-ranging.
Labour would lose its overall majority and be nearly 200 seats down on the 411 it won in July. Across Britain, it would lose 87 seats to the Tories, 67 to Reform and 26 to the SNP. Independents, including former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who took seats from Labour would retain them, and three more Independent MPs would be elected in seats with large numbers of Muslim voters who disapprove of Labour’s pro-Israel stance on the war in Gaza. One of the Labour casualties would be UK Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who would lose Ilford North to an Independent.
The overall outcome would be a hung Parliament, with Labour on 228 seats, the Conservatives on 222, Reform 72, the Lib Dems 58, SNP 37 and Green Party 2.
The implied national vote share has Labour on 25%, the Conservatives on 26%, Reform on 21%, the Lib Dems on 14%, the Greens on 8%, the SNP on 2% and other parties on 3%.
Cabinet Ministers losing to Reform would include Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner; the Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper; the Defence Secretary, John Healey; the Energy Secretary, Ed Miliband; the Education Secretary, Bridget Phillipson; and the Business Secretary, Jonathan Reynolds.
The polling model, created with survey data of more than 11,000 people, highlights a significant acceleration of electoral fragmentation since July’s general election.
The polling model is based on voting intention data collected between October 31 and December 16 from 11,024 adults in Great Britain.
Projected results for the 32 seats in Wales
Aberafan Maesteg
Reform UK Gain From Labour
Conservative: 21.8%
Labour: 25.0%
Liberal Democrat: 0.9%
Reform UK: 27.8%
Green: 10.5%
Plaid Cymru: 12.7%
Other: 1.4%
Alyn and Deeside
Labour Hold
Conservative: 20.2%
Labour: 45.8%
Liberal Democrat: 6.3%
Reform UK: 12.8%
Green: 8.0%
Plaid Cymru: 4.4%
Other: 2.4%
Bangor Aberconwy
Labour Hold
Conservative: 22.3%
Labour: 34.2%
Liberal Democrat: 3.8%
Reform UK: 14.5%
Green: 4.1%
Plaid Cymru: 19.7%
Other: 1.4%
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
Labour Hold
Conservative: 21.5%
Labour: 27.0%
Liberal Democrat: 0.9%
Reform UK: 17.8%
Green: 21.2%
Plaid Cymru: 9.3%
Other: 2.5%
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe
Liberal Democrat Hold
Conservative: 19.5%
Labour: 18.7%
Liberal Democrat: 25%
Reform UK: 17.9%
Green: 4.3%
Plaid Cymru: 12.7%
Other: 2.0%
Bridgend
Labour Hold
Conservative: 19.4%
Labour: 40.6%
Liberal Democrat: 6.3%
Reform UK: 16.6%
Green: 5.1%
Plaid Cymru: 10.1%
Other: 1.8%
Caerfyrddin
Plaid Cymru Hold
Conservative: 21.3%
Labour: 21.7%
Liberal Democrat: 3.3%
Reform UK: 16.2%
Green: 4.7%
Plaid Cymru: 31.6%
Other: 1.2%
Caerphilly
Labour Hold
Conservative: 18.0%
Labour: 38.9%
Liberal Democrat: 2.9%
Reform UK: 16.3%
Green: 10.5%
Plaid Cymru: 12.1%
Other: 1.3%
Cardiff East
Labour Hold
Conservative: 21.3%
Labour: 26.8%
Liberal Democrat: 5.1%
Reform UK: 16.0%
Green: 15.6%
Plaid Cymru: 14.7%
Other: 0.5%
Cardiff North
Labour Hold
Conservative: 21.5%
Labour: 38.8%
Liberal Democrat: 11.3%
Reform UK: 6.1%
Green: 7.5%
Plaid Cymru: 11.2%
Other: 3.5%
Cardiff South and Penarth
Labour Hold
Conservative: 19.0%
Labour: 30.7%
Liberal Democrat: 5.1%
Reform UK: 12.5%
Green: 14.7%
Plaid Cymru: 15%
Other: 2.9%
Cardiff West
Labour Hold
Conservative: 22.4%
Labour: 32.3%
Liberal Democrat: 3.6%
Reform UK: 10.5%
Green: 10.4%
Plaid Cymru: 18.0%
Other: 2.9%
Ceredigion Preseli
Plaid Cymru Hold
Conservative: 14.9%
Labour: 15.1%
Liberal Democrat: 9.0%
Reform UK: 12.0%
Green: 7.9%
Plaid Cymru: 40.6%
Other: 0.6%
Clwyd East
Labour Hold
Conservative: 25.6%
Labour: 36.3%
Liberal Democrat: 6.9%
Reform UK: 14.0%
Green: 5.4%
Plaid Cymru: 9.1%
Other: 2.7%
Clwyd North
Labour Hold
Conservative: 28.6%
Labour: 30.7%
Liberal Democrat: 2.8%
Reform UK: 21.1%
Green: 5.0%
Plaid Cymru: 10.1%
Other: 1.7%
Dwyfor Meirionnydd
Plaid Cymru Hold
Conservative: 16.0%
Labour: 24.3%
Liberal Democrat: 3.3%
Reform UK: 9.9%
Green: 5.8%
Plaid Cymru: 39.7%
Other: 0.9%
Gower
Labour Hold
Conservative: 21.8%
Labour: 41.0%
Liberal Democrat: 10.6%
Reform UK: 10.6%
Green: 6.3%
Plaid Cymru: 9.1%
Other: 0.6%
Llanelli
Reform UK Gain From Labour
Conservative: 17.0%
Labour: 29.8%
Liberal Democrat: 1.3%
Reform UK: 30.3%
Green: 5.1%
Plaid Cymru: 15.2%
Other: 1.5%
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare
Labour Hold
Conservative: 20.4%
Labour: 27.8%
Liberal Democrat: 1.4%
Reform UK: 26.5%
Green: 10.0%
Plaid Cymru: 12.6%
Other: 1.4%
Mid and South Pembrokeshire
Conservative Gain From Labour
Conservative: 28.1%
Labour: 24.1%
Liberal Democrat: 6.7%
Reform UK: 20.9%
Green: 5.0%
Plaid Cymru: 13.8%
Other: 1.4%
Monmouthshire
Labour Hold
Conservative: 26.0%
Labour: 38.6%
Liberal Democrat: 13.4%
Reform UK: 8.3%
Green: 5.7%
Plaid Cymru: 6.5%
Other: 1.6%
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr
Labour Hold
Conservative: 19.3%
Labour: 30.9%
Liberal Democrat: 11.1%
Reform UK: 15.7%
Green: 7.8%
Plaid Cymru: 12.7%
Other: 2.6%
Neath and Swansea East
Labour Hold
Conservative: 20.0%
Labour: 31.4%
Liberal Democrat: 2.6%
Reform UK: 24.4%
Green: 8.6%
Plaid Cymru: 11.5%
Other: 1.5%
Newport East
Labour Hold
Conservative: 23.3%
Labour: 33.4%
Liberal Democrat: 2.0%
Reform UK: 19.9%
Green: 12.3%
Plaid Cymru: 7.3%
Other: 2.0%
Newport West and Islwyn
Labour Hold
Conservative: 21.1%
Labour: 42.1%
Liberal Democrat: 4.4%
Reform UK: 15.2%
Green: 8.1%
Plaid Cymru: 7.4%
Other: 1.5%
Pontypridd
Labour Hold
Conservative: 22.6%
Labour: 32.2%
Liberal Democrat: 2.9%
Reform UK: 17.9%
Green: 8.5%
Plaid Cymru: 13.3%
Other: 2.8%
Rhondda and Ogmore
Reform UK Gain From Labour
Conservative: 20.8%
Labour: 21.6%
Liberal Democrat: 0.8%
Reform UK: 28.6%
Green: 10.9%
Plaid Cymru: 15.6%
Other: 1.8%
Swansea West
Labour Hold
Conservative: 22.0%
Labour: 22.6%
Liberal Democrat: 3.1%
Reform UK: 21.9%
Green: 13.3%
Plaid Cymru: 14.6%
Other: 2.6%
Torfaen
Labour Hold
Conservative: 21.5%
Labour: 37.2%
Liberal Democrat: 2.6%
Reform UK: 20.5%
Green: 10.6%
Plaid Cymru: 6.5%
Other: 1.2%
Vale of Glamorgan
Labour Hold
Conservative: 25.9%
Labour: 32.7%
Liberal Democrat: 6.5%
Reform UK: 16.2%
Green: 4.5%
Plaid Cymru: 12.9%
Other: 1.3%
Wrexham
Labour Hold
Conservative: 26.1%
Labour: 35.6%
Liberal Democrat: 5.5%
Reform UK: 15.1%
Green: 6.4%
Plaid Cymru: 9.5%
Other: 1.8%
Ynys Mon
Plaid Cymru Hold
Conservative: 18%
Labour: 27.7%
Liberal Democrat: 2.9%
Reform UK: 17.8%
Green: 3.4%
Plaid Cymru: 29.7%
Other: 0.7%
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In those 3 seats projected for Reform UK, Plaid and Green voters will have to decide if they want to vote Labour or enable a far-right, British nationalist, climate change denying party.
The only difference bewteen Reform and Labour is that Reform tells you what you want to hear and Labour keeps their true nature secret until they get elected.
Perfectly put Brychan
In those 3 seats they have incumbents who are not popular (in 2 of the 3 cases actually derided), why shouldn’t what’s left of the Labour voters vote for Plaid (or the Greens for that matter)? that’s the trouble with FPTP, there is nothing on Earth that would persuade me to vote for nepo baby & Copenhagen resident Kinnock, or Bryant, or Griffith, or any of the 3 most obvious parachute jobs, perhaps the Labour party shouldn’t have alienated its voters in the first place…
There’s only one reason Nia Griffith came close to losing her seat, the Stradey Park Hotel debacle where Reform rode on the coat tails of the cohort of far right extremists who did their dirty work for them. UKIP’s Stan Robinson and Reform’s Gareth Beer were both prominent at the SPH protests and pictured together smiling at the entrance to the farce that was the hustings.
Ironic that a Labour MP nearly lost their seat because of the actions of a Conservative home secretary (and government). Opposition MP are powerless.
Before the move to the ‘popular front’, in the early 1930s the Communist International held to a theory called ‘social fascism’ which saw all democratic parties as simply offering moderate variants of fascism. This self defeating theory meant that the fascists throughout Europe had a helping hand to power in the face of a divided opposition.
I fear your political purity in the face of the far-right threat will be as helpful in Wales for the forces of extremism as the disastrous theory of ‘social fascism’ was in 30s Europe.
What you are missing is that German elections then (as now) were elected under a system of proportional representation, the issue you describe is thus not actually relevant, it had nothing to do with individual voter choices, or ‘ideological purity’ it was about the policy choices of the leaderships of the parties in question… It is actually typical of the failed FPTP system that people like yourself end up trying to bully people in to voting for the party of YOUR choice on the basis that any other choice would be some kind of betrayal rather than having something positive… Read more »
I support PR and would vote for Welsh independence if there was a referendum.
But that will not be on the ballot at the next UK general election. Then, in those constituencies where it is either Labour or the far-right Reform UK I would vote, without hesitation, vote Labour. The suggestion that Labour and Reform are the same is simply absurd. BTW Reform UK politicians like Farage would love Plaid, Green and Liberal voters not to vote tactically. It splits the progressive vote and hands the far-right more politicians.
More to the point, way before any election, Reform are “loving” the way Labour (UK and Wales) is “governing”! Racking up industrial levels of disillusionment, dissembling, lies and shape shifting, with an open contempt for their own core, a total collapse of any hope or direction. A hollow laughing stock.
And then comes the inevitable establishment “progressive” call, “vote for us, we’re the least evil”. The last resort of a totally bankrupt political class who have willfully paved the way to where we now are.
A terrible reckoning, as the poet said
Why do I have to vote tactically? Why can’t Labour voters swallow their pride and vote Plaid Cymru or Liberal Democrat where they have a better chance of winning?
Tactical voting, I like it.
Works all ways though.
Why should I be forced to vote Labour Party? Feel free to tell Labour to enact their OWN policy of proportional representation for UK General Elections because if the sort of result suggested by this opinion poll happens no stable UK Government can be formed that commands a majority in the House of Commons.
The other interesting issue will be the growth of Reform in the Sennedd due to the new multi-member sytem which is coming into play.
Not interesting, frightening.
I despair if these figures are accurate. I.quite seriously think a move to Scotland is possible( if they’ll have us) If Labour and the English nationalist tories weren’t bad enough, Welsh people voting for a fascist party is a step to far for me. The people of Cymru get what they deserve
You could try moving to Clacton, Farage is hardly ever there.
Both Llanelli and Rhondda are constituencies have, in recent history, been won by Plaid Cymru in the Senedd. In both Plaid Cymru have since suffered the effects of cosying up to Labour and not presenting a radical alternative. This allows Reform, especially if they have a local candidate, to gain traction. It’s also the case that the Labour MPs for Aberafan and Rhondda are the result of parachutes, from west London and High Wycombe, respectively.
I thought he lived in Copenhagen…
He told the Danish Tax authority that his permenant home address was with his Dad in west London and his financial affairs offshore of both in Switzerland.
You think so called Reform won’t fly in English born candidates as well. Same nonsense, different party.
The recent traffic of discourse on nation.cymru is laden with talk of Reform. This is just an observation.
One can but hope so.
We’re less than a year into a new government for goodness sake. As for RefUK’s growing membership, Dickie has dropped one by acknowledging a number of these are from other countries.
Quite.Just wonder which parties these foreign members vote for inn their own countries. AfD? Front National? Fratelli d’Italia?
Plus Donald Trump
Apologies, forgot the Muskrat as well!
As long as Welsh Labour get a routing and are finally taught a lesson.
Boys and girls, it looks like there’s not a lot happening in the real world when people engage in an indepth “what if” exercise that is quite meaningless in reality. Is it designed to scare people, or comfort them ?
The only real “result” I glean from all this speculative nonsense is that if the winner is either Reform or Labour Wales ends up as a collective loser.
MPs being elected with as little as 22% of the vote. FPTP is unfit for any 21st century democracy. No wonder populism is on the rise.
Now, be fair, the MP for Notting Hill West (sorry Swansea) actually got 22.6%…
There were 2 more under 1/4 and another 18 with less than 1/3, 1 more comes out at 33.4%…
As has been remarked here quite confidently and very recently, once the simple folk of Wales have the merits of Independence carefully and slowly explained to them, all their foolish & disgraceful notions of voting Reform to give the Welsh political class. “a real kicking”, will be forgotten and Wales will once again be the land of song, all of us regardless of class, united by our mission.
Rejoice.
This may add to the unrest in certain areas of the Labour party possibly putting Starmer in the firing line to be replaced, as well as those in Wales who have nailed their colours to his mast at Senedd election.
An opportunity for PC to show they are a true alternative to Labour.
Sorry but I see little difference between Labour, Tories and Reform. We need a change, hopefully many will feel the same and give Plaid a chance
Those considering voting for Reform UK must hate Wales. It’s an act of self-harming. Also, receiving news from English-based news papers, anti-social media outlets like X, Facebook & TikTok, including the failure of those in powers to invest in those poor communities only add to our problems. And why the likes of Reform target those areas like drug dealers. Take Reform leader Nigel Farage. He once admitted that migrant crossing the English Channel was not an issue in Wales , but still he pushed the narrative here regarding stopping the small boats even though Wales was not affected directly by… Read more »
Yes you are correct, it seems that the only thing that will change for the electorate in Wales is the name of the political party but the usual useless suspects jumping ship to ship
Well, we have ex MEP and serial Trump admirer farage’s record so we know what
UKIPBrexitreform will do.Sod all apart from wreck. Maybe people need to see that, much like Germany did back in the 30’s.
If it wasn’t going to cost any lives or lead to war that would be a good idea, unfortunately it will cause many lives to be lost during the peace and the eventual wars.
These figures are based on an average of just under 17 people being polled per constituency, so the percentages that have been extrapolatted per constituency must be taken with a huge pinch of salt.
Agreed, these polsters never look to poll a thousand voters in each swing constituency.
Plaid polling looks rather abysmal in that survey.
Averaging around 14.7% per constituency compared to around 14.8% per constituency at the general election. Yeah, huge difference!!
All these middle aged and old people being brainwashed by social media. They always used to complain about younger people. Now they’ve falled for it.
With age comes wisdom.
The Labour Party will only have themselves to blame if the sort of result predicted by this opinion poll comes to pass. Labour are arrogant and most of the electorate believes that simple solutions can be used to solve complex problems. Welcome to dumba*s Britain 🙄😒
Couldn’t happen to a more deserving three Labour MP’s. Their arrogance and misleading statements have proven that. Could say a lot worse about them. Residents are totally fed up with them
Enlighten us, please do. When you mentioned arrogance and misleading statements I thought you were talking about Farage.
Reform offers nothing new. In fact: more of the same, as from all the other London based parties that have taken Wales for granted for so long. Farage is a manipulator, former Tory. Anyone who stands for him are equally power crazy opportunists – same as the current mai stream London focussed parties the majority keep voting for. I can’t quite believe people fall for it. Wake up!