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Welsh Secretary among those who would lose seat in General Election, new Survation poll suggests

27 Dec 2021 2 minute read
Simon Hart photo by Chris McAndrew (CC BY 3.0).

A new UK-wide opinion poll has recorded another big lead for the Labour Party, and projected five cabinet ministers, including the Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Welsh Secretary Simon Hart, could lose their seats.

The Survation poll is the latest of three polls in the last few days to project heavy losses for the Conservatives in Wales.

It also suggests that the Tories could lose all their seats in Scotland and retain only three of the 40 key ‘Red Wall’ seats currently held, Dudley North, Morley and Outwood, and Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland.

The study which put support for Labour on 41 per cent, the Conservatives on 35 per cent and nine per cent for the Lib Dems, predicts a net loss of 111 Tory seats, with Labour returning 309 seats — 11 short of a majority.

The SNP is expected to win 54 seats, while the Lib Dems despite recent by-election victories in England are expected to lose nine seats.

The five Cabinet ministers predicted to lose their seats along with Boris Johnson are Environment Secretary George Eustice, Simon Hart, Scotland Secretary Alister Jack and COP26 President Alok Sharma.

The poll of 10,000 people was commissioned by activist group 38 Degrees and analysed using a technique that generates predictions based on small geographic areas, revealing that older voters and those living in rural areas, which have traditionally been Tory strongholds, are the most concerned about the sleaze allegations which have dogged the government for the past month.

Last week a YouGov poll conducted for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University suggested the Conservative Party would be set to lose eight seats in Wales if a general election were to be held.

The YouGov poll projected Delyn, Bridgend, Clwyd South, Vale of Clwyd, Ynys Mon, Wrexham, Aberconwy and the Vale of Glamorgan could all be won by Labour based on the current number of seats in Wales, 40, however, the number of Welsh seats are due to be cut to 32 before the next election.

Another poll, published n Sunday, suggested that the Conservatives would lose all of their seats in Wales apart from Brecon and Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire if a General Election was fought now.

The new Survation poll records support for Plaid Cymru at 0.8% across the UK – up from 0.5% at the 2019 General Election.


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Welsh_Siôn
Welsh_Siôn
11 months ago

Another poll, published on Sunday, suggested that the Conservatives would lose all of their seats in Wales apart from Brecon and Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire if a General Election was fought now.

Oh dear, how sad, never mind. – YouTube

j humphrys
j humphrys
11 months ago
Reply to  Welsh_Siôn

If so, all our parties must do a deal on tactical voting for those three, and policy deals on others which may be marginal? And to begin to do so next week.

Last edited 11 months ago by j humphrys
Argol Fawr
Argol Fawr
11 months ago

All well and good, but as in a classy pantomime, every parliament needs at least one villain.

Probably not in this case though.

Last edited 11 months ago by Argol Fawr
Richard
Richard
11 months ago

But how accurate is this ‘ British ‘ overview 🇬🇧 Poll ?

Shows trends and themes certainly-

– but examination and even the slightest knowledge of the Wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 political scene tends to temper one’s degree of trust in this.

Grayham Jones
11 months ago

Kick all English party’s out of wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 we
I’m wales have got to stop being little Englanders and and be proud to be welsh start fighting for your children and grandchildren future in wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

Phil
Phil
11 months ago

All sheer speculation. The Tories gained most of those seats over the Brexit issue and the Labour Party’s fragmented attitude to it. No one would be surprised to see the seats return to their former state. They’d never have gone Tory had Labour listened to the voters and backed leaving the EU.

j humphrys
j humphrys
11 months ago
Reply to  Phil

………and what if the voters had a time machine?

Phil
Phil
11 months ago
Reply to  j humphrys

Sour grapes…. Just because you didn’t agree with the result doesn’t mean that the majority of the rest of the country was wrong. It’s called democracy.

Y Cymro
Y Cymro
11 months ago

Simon Hart is one of the worst Welsh Secretaries Wales has ever had, and there’s been many. I thought Jon Redwood was bad enough, but this quisling takes his crown.

And if & when this happens, will be just deserts. He has not done anything positive for Wales in his sorry tenure as a Welsh Office Minister.

Last edited 11 months ago by Y Cymro
Welsh_Siôn
Welsh_Siôn
11 months ago
Reply to  Y Cymro

Westminster’s man in Wales … as opposed to Wales’s man in Westminster.

Phil
Phil
11 months ago
Reply to  Y Cymro

Let’s be fair… His role is largely redundant. He’s only a mouthpiece for Westminster in Wales. Nobody pays much interest to his mouthings.

Phil
Phil
11 months ago
Reply to  Y Cymro

Redwood was more frightening ‘cos he had a bit of power, pre devolution. Hart is a pointless man in a pointless job.

Malcolm rj
Malcolm rj
11 months ago

Simon hart May lose his job I won’t sleep tonight what a massive lose too Wales

Peter Cuthbert
Peter Cuthbert
11 months ago
Reply to  Malcolm rj

Whilst I agree with the general feeling of euphoria that the Tories might take a hammering in Wales and England, it will not happen without much work on the ground. If only we could persuade some of the party wonks at local level to come out of their bunkers and talk with other parties about fielding a single ‘candidate for change’. Compass has analysed the various non-Tory manifestos and a huge proportion of the policy proposals are compatible. Most also support electoral reform and should be embarassed by the fact that the only other country in Europe that uses FPTP… Read more »

Quornby
Quornby
11 months ago

O joy!

R W
R W
11 months ago

This poll has Plaid Cymru on around 16% in Wales for a UK General Election, which would be a significant improvement on their 2019 performance. I guess it’s a step in the right direction at least.

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