Welsh Secretary among those who would lose seat in General Election, new Survation poll suggests
A new UK-wide opinion poll has recorded another big lead for the Labour Party, and projected five cabinet ministers, including the Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Welsh Secretary Simon Hart, could lose their seats.
The Survation poll is the latest of three polls in the last few days to project heavy losses for the Conservatives in Wales.
It also suggests that the Tories could lose all their seats in Scotland and retain only three of the 40 key ‘Red Wall’ seats currently held, Dudley North, Morley and Outwood, and Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland.
The study which put support for Labour on 41 per cent, the Conservatives on 35 per cent and nine per cent for the Lib Dems, predicts a net loss of 111 Tory seats, with Labour returning 309 seats — 11 short of a majority.
The SNP is expected to win 54 seats, while the Lib Dems despite recent by-election victories in England are expected to lose nine seats.
The five Cabinet ministers predicted to lose their seats along with Boris Johnson are Environment Secretary George Eustice, Simon Hart, Scotland Secretary Alister Jack and COP26 President Alok Sharma.
The poll of 10,000 people was commissioned by activist group 38 Degrees and analysed using a technique that generates predictions based on small geographic areas, revealing that older voters and those living in rural areas, which have traditionally been Tory strongholds, are the most concerned about the sleaze allegations which have dogged the government for the past month.
Last week a YouGov poll conducted for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University suggested the Conservative Party would be set to lose eight seats in Wales if a general election were to be held.
The YouGov poll projected Delyn, Bridgend, Clwyd South, Vale of Clwyd, Ynys Mon, Wrexham, Aberconwy and the Vale of Glamorgan could all be won by Labour based on the current number of seats in Wales, 40, however, the number of Welsh seats are due to be cut to 32 before the next election.
Another poll, published n Sunday, suggested that the Conservatives would lose all of their seats in Wales apart from Brecon and Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire if a General Election was fought now.
The new Survation poll records support for Plaid Cymru at 0.8% across the UK – up from 0.5% at the 2019 General Election.
Support our Nation today
For the price of a cup of coffee a month you can help us create an independent, not-for-profit, national news service for the people of Wales, by the people of Wales.