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Welsh Tories could be entirely wiped out in next election, according to a new poll

28 Feb 2023 2 minute read
Welsh Tories could be entirely wiped out in next election, according to a new poll

A YouGov poll for WalesOnline, released ahead of St David’s Day, shows the Conservatives’ share of the vote has slipped to just 19%, while Labour’s share has surged from 41% in 2019 to 53% now.

Among people aged 25-49, the Tory share of the vote is just 7%.

A series of crises, allegations of sleaze and government mismanagement have engulfed the Conservative party since the election of 2019 – in which time the UK has had three different Prime Ministers.

The poll found that in Wales, the Conservative vote share has slipped to just 19%.

This is similar to how the Conservatives fared in 1997 and lower than 2001 when they won no seats in Wales.

In 2019 they won 14 seats (a gain of 6) with 36.1% of the vote and since then, 19% have gone to Labour with a significant 12% going to Reform.

Swing

Labour’s vote share has surged over 12 percentage points, from 41% in 2019 to 53%.

28% of people who voted Plaid in 2019 now intend to vote Labour.

The Tory vote is very low among working age people under 50 and among those aged 25-49 just 7% would vote Conservative if there was an election tomorrow.

Geographically, Labour dominate Cardiff and Valleys areas, where 62% of people intend to vote for them.

According to the Wales Governance Centre, the YouGov poll shows that, based on uniform swing and current boundaries, the Conservative party would keep just two Welsh seats, the lowest number since they gained none in the 2001 election.

Those seats are Brecon and Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire.

The WalesOnline/YouGov poll used a sample size of 1,083 of adults in Wales who were questioned between February 17-23, 2023.

Results weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote, don’t know, or refused, and excluding 16-17 year olds this week.


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Rob
Rob
11 months ago

Don’t forget that the boundary reforms will incorporate part of Neath into Brecon and Radnor, and part of Clwyd South will be incorporated into Clwyd South. Both of which would be of beneficial to the Labour party. Furthermore Powys was traditionally Lib Dem territory, and since they are unlikely going to win those seats back anytime soon, they may lend their support to Labour just to stop the Tories from getting back in. The rise in support for Reform UK is coming from disgruntled Tory voters unhappy with the way Boris was ousted, endorsed Truss but ended up with Sunak.… Read more »

Cathy Jones
Cathy Jones
11 months ago

Q: Where do the biggest scumbags in Cymru live?

A: Montgomeryshire, obviously.

hdavies15
hdavies15
11 months ago
Reply to  Cathy Jones

Isn’t there a concentration around your locality ?

NOT Grayham Jones
NOT Grayham Jones
11 months ago

How will the 28% of plaid votes going to Labour affect Plaid? will they be wiped out as well.

Glen
Glen
11 months ago

The inevitable consequence of being viewed by voters as Labour’s little helpers.

Dai Rob
Dai Rob
11 months ago

I’m a Welsh Nationalist. Have always supported Independence, always will until my last breath.
I will not vote Plaid, they are utterly pathetic, people simply do not trust them.
I will vote labour, despite their Unionism.
This will get downvoted here, I’m sure, but I am not alone.

Steve Duggan
Steve Duggan
11 months ago
Reply to  Dai Rob

Yes we want the Tories out of Westminster asap. However, the trouble with voting Labour is nothing much will change, poverty in Cymru will not fall. It hasn’t done so in past Labour administrations it won’t in this one coming. As much as Plaid needs to change it is still the only option that is solely for Cymru. We want independence, if we don’t like how Plaid (let’s face it, it is one of the organisations that will get us self determination) is run – get in there, raise your voice and try and change things. Abandoning it is not… Read more »

Dai Rob
Dai Rob
11 months ago
Reply to  Steve Duggan

Good response…however, Plaid are on 12% and their support has consistently fallen, for the last 10 years. They are an utter irrelevance in 90% of Wales. Their calibre of politician is so low, their vote is unlikely to recover.
And yes, Labour at UK level will do little for Wales, I agree.

Ernie The Smallholder
Ernie The Smallholder
11 months ago
Reply to  Dai Rob

So Dai, Are you going to join Labour and fight inside for Welsh Labour to become independent of the UK party so that it may stand on a platform for an independent Wales? The majority of Labour’e membership in Wales consider independence as an future option however their leadership have ruled it out. I tried writing to them only for the reply to come from England ?!? Then what the chance for Wales? UK Labour (which they follow) are using Wales to bolster up their MPs for their failure to mobilise support in Eastern England. The only real party for… Read more »

R W
R W
11 months ago
Reply to  Dai Rob

That’s right. With the likes of Carolyn Harris, Chris Bryant and Hefin David, Labour is filled with a whole load of quality politicians!!! 😂😂😂

Geraint
Geraint
11 months ago
Reply to  Dai Rob

In 2015 Plaid gained 12.1% of the vote at a UK general election which was their third highest percentage vote since 1987.
You are right since 2015 their vote has fallen to 9.9%. So if you are also right that the Plaid vote has increased to 12% in this poll it does suggest a recovery.

Benjiman Angwin
Benjiman Angwin
11 months ago
Reply to  Steve Duggan

Sir Keir Starmer is good, but our Senedd needs a change of social & economic ideas away from the Party of power like a normal nation. Plaid has Labour values with indy added. That is only a change in constitution – we need change in ideas and values before we can discuss constitutional matters.

R W
R W
11 months ago
Reply to  Dai Rob

Good luck with that. Labour are simply the Tory Lite Party!!

Jack
Jack
11 months ago

“28% of people who voted Plaid in 2019 now intend to vote Labour.”

You love to see it

Cawr
Cawr
11 months ago
Reply to  Jack

I love to see you in an avalanche

Jack
Jack
11 months ago
Reply to  Cawr

The traditional term is politics is ‘landslide’ not avalanche.

As in, “Labour winning a landslide is excellent news for Unionists.”

R W
R W
11 months ago
Reply to  Jack

Actually, that statement is rather misleading. This poll has Plaid on 12%, which is up 1.6% on their vote share at the 2019 General Election.

Erisian
Erisian
11 months ago

Did nobody proof read or spell/grammar-check this piece before publication?

Fi yn unig
Fi yn unig
11 months ago

Whatever happened to those days when the political map of Cymru was all red and green and was a blue free zone? Dare we dream?

Gruff Williams
Gruff Williams
11 months ago
Reply to  Fi yn unig

Mewnlifiad

Owain Morgan
Owain Morgan
11 months ago

So, let me get this right, while moderate Tories in England won’t vote for them at the next UK General election their counterparts in Powys will. Pardon me?! How does that work!? If this poll is to be believed, moderate Tory voters either side of the border vote in different ways. I think, as usual, a lot of Tory voters are not telling pollsters the truth. No wonder then that these people are Conservatives 🙄😒

NOT Grayham Jones
NOT Grayham Jones
11 months ago

What the pollsters fail to realise is that Keir Starmer is basically a Tory wearing a red badge so in effect the Tories will win a landslide LOL

Y Cymro
Y Cymro
11 months ago

The “Welsh” Tories serve no purpose. They actively undermine Wales at every opportunity and deserve everything they get.

hdavies15
hdavies15
11 months ago

Labour running the UK will only create changes at the margins of policy. One thing for sure, Wales will be at the back of the queue.

Iago Prydderch
Iago Prydderch
11 months ago

Regardless what the polls say every single one of the Conservative candidates will get votes so there are people in Wales who are Tories. Yes, the Conservatives are Unionists, but so are Labour. There’s no difference between the Conservatives and Labour in that case. Plaid Cymru claim to be the party of Wales, but they are more interested in everyone else’s identity than Welsh identity. For over 100 years Wales has been voting in the same parties while the Welsh language and culture is eroding away because they believe their ideology is more important. Wales needs a new party that… Read more »

Owain Morgan
Owain Morgan
11 months ago
Reply to  Iago Prydderch

Sounds like a Party political broadcast for a new Welsh Independence party 🙄😒

Benjiman Angwin
Benjiman Angwin
11 months ago

Wales lacking Parties of pro-market, or socially conservative values (from a Wales-centric angle) harms this democracy and, long-term, Welsh Devolution suffers. Our public space is stunted and stifled from us not having the courage to change political ideas and values in Wales.

Rob
Rob
11 months ago

I agree with you. If Wales is going to be successful as a fully self-governing nation then it needs to embrace the free market as all other countries in Western Europe has done. How many pro-devolution, pro-independence votes have been lost to the Tories. Plaid need to become a broadchurch and embrace the centre ground.

Rob
Rob
11 months ago

Wales is not going to achieve independence before Scotland. Following recent events in regards to the SNP there they may not go independent anytime soon.
What Plaid should focus on in the mean time is demanding that Wales have parity with Scotland in terms of powers and privilege. And its not just Scotland, but also Northern Ireland. Westminster acts as an English and British Parliament at the same time.
“Parity with everyone else” could be a vote winner among Welsh voters.

Owain Morgan
Owain Morgan
11 months ago
Reply to  Rob

No, they won’t! SNP voters are switching back to Labour because of the Gender Reform Scotland Act. Notice now how Labour are keeping to a set line on Transgendered persons ‘We support the Transgender community but…’ It’s pathetic on the part of Labour! They’re selling the Transgendered community down the river to regain Scotland’s Westminster seats. 😤😠😡🤬

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