World on track for ‘catastrophic’ 3.1C of global warming this century, UN warns

The world is on track for a “catastrophic” 3.1C of global warming, the UN has warned as it called for massive efforts to cut the emissions driving climate change.

In its annual report on the gap between the emissions cuts needed to limit global warming to 1.5C and what countries are doing and have pledged to do, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) said the goal would “soon be dead” without a global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before.

It warned the world was currently on track for temperature rises of 2.6C to 3.1C, depending on how much of the currently promised climate action is delivered.

But, as countries prepare to submit the next set of plans for action up to 2035 in the next few months, UNEP is warning the goal of preventing dangerous warming is slipping out of reach.

“Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster – with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most,” he said.

He said already people were suffering from monster hurricanes, biblical floods and record heat which was turning forests into tinder boxes and cities into saunas, and warned “current policies are taking us towards a catastrophic 3.1C temperature rise by the end of the century”.

He said governments must drive down all greenhouse gas emissions, weaning the world off fossil fuels, accelerating the rollout of renewables and halting and reversing deforestation, and agree a new finance goal at Cop29 to unlock the huge sums of money developing countries need to tackle climate change.

Crunch time

Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP, said: “Climate crunch time is here. We need global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before – starting right now, before the next round of climate pledges – or the 1.5C goal will soon be dead and well below 2C will take its place in the intensive care unit.”

She urged nations meeting for Cop29 to increase action now, set the stage for stronger national plans and then “go all-out to get on a 1.5C pathway”.

And she said: “Even if the world overshoots 1.5C – and the chances of this happening are increasing every day – we must keep striving for a net-zero, sustainable and prosperous world.

“Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot.”

Nations must collectively commit to cut 42% off annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57% by 2035 in the next round of NDCs to achieve the 1.5C goal, UNEP warned.

It is technically feasible to deliver such a cut, by tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, ramping up energy efficiency improvements, shifting away from fossil fuel use and protecting and restoring natural habitats such as forests and mangroves.

But there must be a massive globalisation effort to cut the global greenhouse gases driving rising temperatures, starting today and led by the G20, UNEP said.