YouGov: Labour on course for worst result in Wales as Brexit Party projected to win four Senedd seats

First Minister Mark Drakeford AM.
First Minister Mark Drakeford AM. Mark Hawkins / Alamy Stock Photo

Labour would record its worst-ever result and Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party would snatch four seats at a Welsh Assembly election, according to a new poll by YouGov and Cardiff University.

The poll projects that Labour would win 23 seats, Plaid Cymru 16 seats, the Conservatives 15 seats, the Brexit Party 4 seats, and the Liberal Democrats and UKIP one seat each.

This is the first time that YouGov have put Plaid Cymru ahead of the Conservatives for the Assembly constituency ballot since July 2016. It would be their best share of seats since the 1999 election.

Plaid Cymru are projected to pick up Blaenau Gwent, Cardiff West, Caerphilly and Llanelli, while the Conservatives would take Vale of Clwyd and Vale of Glamorgan.

Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University said that the poll showed that the “traditional two leading parties are in some trouble”.

“Their failings are losing them support. While the voters of Wales have not yet coalesced around a single alternative, the potential for other parties to gain support is very considerable,” he said.

“With further troubles for the Conservative-Labour duopoly likely to lie ahead, we should not assume that their dominance of electoral politics in Wales will continue.”

Constituency Seats Regional Seats Total Seats
Labour 31% (-1) 21 28% (-1) 2 23
Plaid Cymru 24% (+2) 10 22% (-1) 6 16
Conservative 23% (-3) 8 20% (-4) 7 15
Brexit Party See ‘Others’ 0 6% (+6) 4 4
UKIP 7% (-) 0 5% (-1) 1 1
Liberal Democrats 6% (-2) 0 5% (-1) 1 1
Change UK 4% (+4%) 0 5% (+5) 0 0
Greens See ‘Others’ 0 3% (-1) 0 0
Abolish the Assembly See ‘Others’ 0 3% (-1) 0 0
Others 6% (+1) 0 2% (-2) 0 0


Westminster

The projections for Westminster mirror those for the Welsh Assembly, with Labour and the Conservatives slipping below a combined 60% of the vote and Plaid Cymru gaining in the polls.

Under the results, Labour would win 23 seats,  the Conservatives 12 seats and Plaid Cymru five seats.

The Conservatives would win Cardiff North, Gower, Vale of Clwyd and Wrexham while Plaid Cymru would take Ynys Môn.

Party Percent of the vote Seats
Labour 33% (-2) 23
Conservative 26% (-3) 12
Plaid Cymru 15% (+1) 5
Change UK 9% (+9) 0
Liberal Democrats 7% (+1) 0
Brexit Party 4% (+4) 0
UKIP 3% (-3) 0
Others 3% (-5) 0

Roger Scully said that they were “sensational results”.

“They show the combined Labour and Conservative vote share below 60 percent – having been at 82.5 percent in the June 2017 general election,” he said.

“The apparent resurgence of two-party politics that we saw just a couple of years ago seems to be in something close to free fall.

“Just eighteen months ago Labour alone were at fifty percent support in Wales; now they are not much above thirty percent.”

‘Momentum’

Responding to today’s YouGov polling results, a Plaid Cymru spokesperson said:

“This is yet another opinion poll that has produced a promising set of results for Plaid Cymru. This projection would be our strongest result since 2003 in the Senedd and our best ever result in Westminster.

“We believe we are on track to form a government with Adam Price as First Minister. We have the momentum and are determined to keep on talking to people in every community in Wales and bring them with us on this exciting journey towards a New Wales.

“It is clear that people across Wales are eager for change. They are tired of being let down by the failures and incompetence of both Labour and the Tories. But through Plaid Cymru, people in every corner of Wales are finding hope for a better future for our nation.”

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