Support our Nation today - please donate here
News

YouGov Senedd poll gives Welsh Labour largest lead in almost 10 years

08 Dec 2022 2 minute read
Mark Drakeford. Picture by CPMR – Conference of Peripheral Maritime Regions (CC BY-SA 2.0).

A YouGov Senedd poll has given Welsh Labour its largest lead in almost 10 years.

The poll shows the party up four points on 44% in the constituency vote in Wales, and up one to 38% in the list, compared with September.

It is Labour’s largest lead with YouGov since 2013, when they were projected to be on 46% on the vote, and improves on their 39.9% in last year’s Senedd election.

With Labour already on 30 seats the poll suggests that they could win more than half the seats in the Senedd for the first time if an election were held now.

The poll projects that Plaid Cymru, currently the third largest party in the Senedd, would become the main opposition on 20% and 23% of the vote in the constituency and list.

The Conservatives are projected to fall to 17% and 16% of the vote, compared with 26% and 25% at the Senedd election last year.

The divide between constituency and list votes may not be applicable by the next Senedd election, with a number of reforms due to be implemented by the Senedd.

They include enlarging the Welsh parliament to 96 members and the creation of 16 multi-member wards, each electing six Senedd Members through proportional representation.

There are as yet no polls that suggest how people could vote under this as-yet hypothetical scenario.

The latest YouGov poll was conducted between 25 November and 1 December.


Support our Nation today

For the price of a cup of coffee a month you can help us create an independent, not-for-profit, national news service for the people of Wales, by the people of Wales.

Subscribe
Notify of
guest

12 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Leigh Richards
Leigh Richards
1 month ago

Sadly too many people in Wales continue to suffer from a severe case of Stockholm syndrome โ˜น๏ธ. We need to find a cure for this if we are to become an independent nation

Robert
Robert
1 month ago
Reply to  Leigh Richards

At least PC is up and the tories are down. That’s something positive.

Leigh Richards
Leigh Richards
1 month ago
Reply to  Robert

๐Ÿ‘

George Thomas
George Thomas
1 month ago
Reply to  Leigh Richards

I don’t think it’s a case of Stockholm Syndrome, I think the debate hasn’t progressed beyond “Westminster is awful” and “independence would be awful”. Scotland has more devolved to it, has a smaller and less important border with England and higher population – they are closer to independence than we are but still so many big questions left unanswered. Hopefully Plaid moving into second place ensures there is greater focus on getting tax/justice devolved and improving travel networks throughout Wales (despite us being only nation in world to have mountains) to inch us closer. On an individual level, getting healthier… Read more »

Rob
Rob
1 month ago
Reply to  George Thomas

The lack of a Welsh media doesn’t help either. Most people still get their news from English sources. Half of the Newport area watch BBC West not BBC Wales, same thing up north with many tuned into Granada instead of Wales. When it comes to Senedd elections people tend to vote on UK wide rather then Welsh matters. ‘Vote Labour to send a message to the Tories’ etc, and Labour will be happy to keep things as they are. Hopefully though with an expanded Senedd and MS’s no longer being elected via FPTP then we can keep them on their… Read more »

Dai Rob
Dai Rob
1 month ago

The utter shambles that is the UK at present, Welsh Indy at near-record levels & Plaid still only on 23%. Just up a measly 3% from a very low baseline.
Price is a failure. I have mostly voted Plaid for the last 33 years…..I wouldn’t again under Price, no way.
Plaid should be a broad church….they are not!

George Thomas
George Thomas
1 month ago
Reply to  Dai Rob

Price is second best party leader in Wales and is better than whichever candidate will replace Drakeford.

If Price is a weak politician, then we are really screwed in next 5-10 years.

Richard
Richard
1 month ago
Reply to  George Thomas

AP is certainly a highly talented individual who really found his place at Westminster on issues he could master including the Iraq ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ War โ€ฆ his sharp mind and use of procedure was masterful and respected across the parties. He however has struggled at Cardiff Bay to develop a collegiate approach within his own group and unfortunately struggles with models of media programmes especially question and answer formats lacking the either โ€˜ warmth โ€˜ and audience connection of Mark Drakeford and even to some extent ( and yes I have taken my pills ๐Ÿ’Š) of ARTD . It is unfortunate… Read more »

Last edited 1 month ago by Richard
Cynan again
Cynan again
1 month ago

And the back and forth swap between the Conservative Labour pact continues. disUK-wide, first Tories get 12 years, then Labour gets 12 years then Tories get 12 years, then Labout gets 12 years ad infinitum, doing nothing. In Cymru, Labour gets many votes, then it gets very many votes, then it gets many votes, ad infinitum. And the good of the people of Cymru (or even the disUK) improves not at all. Such is the lie of “freedom” and “democracy”. The irony being that the population willingly continue to vote between their own limited choice of jailers and think this… Read more »

John Davies
John Davies
1 month ago

This may be the last hurrah before the crash. Labour’s popularity is largely Drakeford’s creation. He is very adept at politics. He has managed to please unionists while at the same time honouring national sentiment and saying that full independence is back on the political agenda, a fairly radical statement for a unionist politician to make. He has managed to cultivate a level of political understanding with Plaid. He has managed to pursue policies distinctively different from England while avoiding grandstanding and open conflict. He is a subtle and effective operator. But he is retiring soon. The bunch of authoritarian… Read more »

I.Humphrys
I.Humphrys
1 month ago
Reply to  John Davies

Hope so!

Argol fawr!
Argol fawr!
1 month ago

Crumbs, heโ€™s not that good. Just miles better than any tory and more credible than Price.

Our Supporters

All information provided to Nation.Cymru will be handled sensitively and within the boundaries of the Data Protection Act 2018.