YouGov Senedd poll gives Welsh Labour largest lead in almost 10 years
A YouGov Senedd poll has given Welsh Labour its largest lead in almost 10 years.
The poll shows the party up four points on 44% in the constituency vote in Wales, and up one to 38% in the list, compared with September.
It is Labour’s largest lead with YouGov since 2013, when they were projected to be on 46% on the vote, and improves on their 39.9% in last year’s Senedd election.
With Labour already on 30 seats the poll suggests that they could win more than half the seats in the Senedd for the first time if an election were held now.
The poll projects that Plaid Cymru, currently the third largest party in the Senedd, would become the main opposition on 20% and 23% of the vote in the constituency and list.
The Conservatives are projected to fall to 17% and 16% of the vote, compared with 26% and 25% at the Senedd election last year.
The divide between constituency and list votes may not be applicable by the next Senedd election, with a number of reforms due to be implemented by the Senedd.
They include enlarging the Welsh parliament to 96 members and the creation of 16 multi-member wards, each electing six Senedd Members through proportional representation.
There are as yet no polls that suggest how people could vote under this as-yet hypothetical scenario.
The latest YouGov poll was conducted between 25 November and 1 December.
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