2025 is a make or break year for Plaid Cymru
Jonathan Edwards
2025 is a gigantic year for Plaid Cymru. The party will celebrate its centenary in August. It can look back with pride on its contribution to the life of our country.
The Welsh language arguably would be in an even more precarious position had it not been for the efforts of the party to normalise its use in Welsh life.
When I was growing up, language baiting by some unionist politicians was a common tactic to sow division within the country. Those days are gone for the mainstream unionist parties and Plaid has been the main party political force legitimising the language.
It will be interesting to see the approach of Reform. If I was them, I would embrace the language despite the likely views of some of their leading figures. An anti-Welsh language platform could backfire spectacularly in the run-up to 2026.
There wouldn’t be a Welsh language television channel if it wasn’t for Plaid, though I personally fear that S4C is finished unless it adapts to the streaming age. My children don’t watch traditional TV; they want to control their own viewing itinerary and download what they want to watch.
There wouldn’t be a Welsh Parliament if it wasn’t for Plaid. It has used a bad political hand to strengthen the Senedd and I am glad that I was able to play a very small part in that work.
Welsh nationhood
There is a strong argument to say that the party has managed to preserve Welsh nationhood by its very existence – no small achievement considering the strength of the British State and the forces at its disposal.
Despite this the party has flattered to deceive politically. The 1966 breakthrough, while being an historic achievement, was contained to the Fro Gymraeg. I can’t ever see Plaid Cymru winning a Westminster seat outside the Western seaboard unless an independence referendum is held which results in a realignment, as happened in Scotland after 2014.
In 25 years of devolved politics, it has only won three Valleys constituency and none in the capital, Swansea or Newport.
In the Senedd, apart from the unexpectedly good result in 1999, every election has been a disappointment.
I might be out of order, but my feeling is that the vast majority of Plaid Senedd Members are happy to be bystanders in opposition. I don’t get a sense of burning desire to govern Wales and to replace Labour.
Battleground
The next Senedd election is within sight and this year will determine the battleground of that campaign. And for once the circumstances couldn’t be more favourable for the party.
A better set of conditions could not be asked for. Labour have ruled the Welsh Government since 1999 and in reality have been in management mode as opposed to governing mode for most of the last quarter of a century.
At UK level the new government couldn’t have got off to a worse start. Its sights are very much on 2029, front loading unpopular decisions which are going to hurt Labour in 2026 no matter what the Welsh Government does.
If the end of year economic projections come true and 2025 is another year of flatlining growth and compressed living standards, there will be no hiding place for Labour.
The conditions are ripe for an insurgency. The problem for Plaid is that the most potent force is likely to come from the British right in the shape of Reform. Plaid to all intents and purposes resembles continuity of Labour.
Posturing
Rhun ap Iorwerth has ended the cooperation agreement but that is superficial posturing. If it is to establish itself as the alternative to Labour, it needs to start outlining quickly how things under a Plaid Cymru government would be different.
Such a strategy would pose a risk as it would provide a target for their opponents, but I don’t think Plaid has the luxury of being able to sit back. Without an alternative platform, more and more voters will look to Reform to shake the Welsh political establishment up.
If Plaid Cymru fails to capitalise on the opportunities before it, then Welsh nationalists should start asking themselves serious questions about the future political strategy. After all, the cause of Welsh nationhood is far more important than Plaid Cymru.
My rabid enemies on the Plaid Cymru left will like this quote from Gramsci from his Prison Diaries: “The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born.”
If it fails to win in 2026, Welsh nationalism will find itself in a similar interregnum.
Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-2024
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Why so coy? Spell out the actual policy platform that you’d have them adopt.
If Plaid don’t up their game, and fast it’s a very real possibility that the new Nazi party end up in the Senedd.
We all know what people want, a great NHS, secure well paid jobs, cheaper living conditions. We also know Welsh Labour are struggling and have failed in many areas. The public don’t need reminding of these issues. Reform are just going to focus on their pet hate – immigrants, and how they are causing all our woes. Plaid needs to focus on one topic too, make it their goal and give the message of inclusiveness, tolerance and love alongside it (basically the opposite to reform). Keep the message clear and simple and promote togetherness.
I doubt they will delve into immigration – they know full well it’s better to pass the buck to Labour/Westminster for this, plus they know they’ve already got the anti-immigration voters supporting them
Instead, they will promise council tax freezes, higher income tax thresholds, ‘clear the NHS waiting list’, scrap business rates, build more roads, fill potholes. They will probably look to policies that pulls labour voters to them. The very ones Plaid needs!
Another excellent contribution from JE, but I think we may not fully agree on the solution. When voters say they won’t support Plaid Cymru, even with its good leadership, they often give the same reason: “Plaid Cymru is a party for middle-class Welsh speakers.” Whether this is true or not, it’s the challenge we face. That’s why Rhun must relaunch the party in 2025—its centenary year—much like Tony Blair did with New Labour. To connect with both Welsh and English speakers, the party should think about dual branding. This means using an English name for English-speaking folk and a Welsh… Read more »
The problem over Neil M is that Plaid cancelled him, with the usual and intended results. He was put on his backside with a young family to support. So he has found it hard to do Welsh national politics. Well done Plaid Cymru, no doubt you feel pleased with yourselves. Here are two updates on Neil M. 1. He was not allowed to beat Drakeford in Cardiff West because his own party betrayed any chance he had. 2. He/Propel were able to beat Plaid into oblivion in Splott recently (and beat Reform in Wales) despite it all. And do well… Read more »
Voting for any other party than Plaid Cymru in 2025 will not benefit Wales. We’ve had the Welsh Conservatives since the devolution. vote 1997 campaign against the Senedd , an institution that gave them a bloody voice after their New Labour wipeout in 1997. We were for forced to endure Ukip/Brexit Party obtaining a voice thanks to the list seat system to the then Welsh Assembly, an Assembly they wanted to abolish, in which their members actively undermined Wales on behalf of ultra rightwing English Conservatives , one donor who thought Wales shouldn’t be called a country but a constituent… Read more »
“We were for forced to endure Ukip/Brexit Party obtaining a voice”
I thought Wales voted in favour of Brexit?
Try being a English mostly speaker in Plaid. It’s hell of a laugh… not
Not so for Monoglot English speaking members of Sinn Fein or the SNP
Many good points as usual, but as was said previously, don’t be coy, what is the alternative approach you suggest. After all the alternative policy options are limited. As we approach the election, every party will save the health and care sector, improve our children’s education, build more affordable homes and give more money to the local councils and give us a green and pleasant land.. Pre the recent Westminster election, Plaid promised a green economy, with 80000 green jobs. How was it to be financed. They would ask the Westminster government for £6 billion. That’s not an alternative, that’s… Read more »
“My rabid enemies on the Plaid Cymru left”.
Ti llawer gwell na hyn Jonathan.
Jonathan redodd ymgyrch Leanne i fod yn arweinydd nôl yn 2012 hefyd – ond mae’n gyfleus iddo anghofio hynny.
Plaid has a big problem connecting outside Y Fro to the required degree, I’m not seeing signs of that changing in time for 2026. Polling, although Plaid came out on top to end the year, is more a case of standing still whilst Labour and the Tories collapse. So not anything to get carried away with. Unfortunately, the current direction of travel is that Reform will do very well and Plaid will remain static. Anyone who was politically awake during the 2016-21 Senedd knows what an epic carcrash the UKIP Senedd Group was; perhaps that’s what it’s going to take… Read more »