A road to Liberal revival – a Fydd Cymru?

Gwern Gwynfil

Liberalism is almost dead in Wales today. The Welsh Liberal Democrats have one Senedd member and one member of Parliament but they have no voice and make little, if any, impact.

Polling suggests that in the 2026 Senedd elections they will do well to retain their single seat. What newsflow there is for the Welsh Liberal Democrats is more negative than positive.

This is a bleak picture.

The excellent Welsh Election Study makes it clear that self professed liberals are almost invisible. The offhand disparagement of the Liberal Democrats at the tail end of this podcast (well worth a listen) epitomises the state of the party in Wales today.

Wherefore art thou Liberal Wales?

 This is strange when we consider that, in terms of classical Liberal values, the tenets and beliefs of the Welsh Liberals of old, Wales is awash with people who hold such views. A vast array of data would suggest that a significant portion of the Welsh electorate would align with a real Welsh Liberal party.

Presumably they are scattered across Plaid Cymru, Labour and the Conservatives, with many abstaining from the political process completely – the latter in justifiable disgust at the denigration of politics and civic life we see today.

Classical liberalism is underpinned by freedom of speech, personal responsibility, civil liberty within the law, individual liberty, (but not the toxic ‘everyone for themselves, your loss is my gain’ evolution of the cult of the individual), essential but limited government, economic and political freedom –  summarised by Dr Richard Price as ‘Liberty, Virtue and Truth’. Core values which many in Wales would recognise and embrace – why is there no clear political expression of these values?

Political Degradation

It is an indictment of all politicians when the most popular politician across the UK is Nigel Farage, and he is still disapproved of by 62% of the population. His has been a career as a fringe disruptor, albeit a politically adept, opportunistic and long lived one – always a loud voice railing against the machine, leaping on any issue from which he feels he can milk advantage, but never having to engage with the realities of government and governing.

Experience suggests that Farage lacks the necessary skills for effective government and governance as all of his various party embodiments have ultimately fallen apart in acrimony. It is unclear whether he wants such responsibility.

One wonders whether he’s considering a further transformation to be a new conservative media star in the US pantheon – there are some holes to fill, as Trump appoints talking heads, presenters and celebrity ‘experts’ to his forthcoming administration. How long before the cracks begin to show in Reform, and Farage, astute as ever, jumps ship before it sinks?

Make Some Noise

With few, if any, loud, clear voices elsewhere in Wales, no doubt even some liberals have slid towards the enticing populist idea that the world is to blame for all ills and that the only politicians shouting loudly should be believed when they say they have a magic bullet to fix things.

Shouting loudly enough certainly drowns out the rest of the room and captures the spotlight – inexplicably, other political voices insist on whispering rather than fronting up, shouting down and tearing apart the weaknesses and fallacies of the populists patter.

Pursuing a curious approach of appeasement rather than embracing the courage of their convictions and taking on the fundamentally weak arguments of the populist with reason, data and the firm resistance it deserves.

Even more inexplicably, the normally sensible conservative factions seem to be intent on outdoing the populists, providing their own insubstantial policies and a relentlessly negative narrative of blame, with no hope or aspiration.

A Path to Liberal Revival

Wales was a Liberal nation before the Labour hegemony arrived but this was a different Liberal party to the one we see today. It was much more Welsh, in every sense – today, there is an inescapable perception of the Liberal Democrats in Wales as an English party, tarnished by their coalition with Cameron’s Conservative government. This is a connection the party must sever if they are to succeed.

Whilst it may conjure a somewhat unpleasant urinary image, nevertheless, the party must create ‘clear yellow water’ between itself and the federal party at the UK level. The Liberals already have that federal structure, unlike Labour, which manages to give the impression of a separate ‘Welsh Labour’ party when they are one and the same.

Time for Welsh Liberals to distance themselves from Ed Davey’s Liberals. It is both possible and relatively easy to underline that all Liberals share the same core values, whilst accepting that Wales needs very different policies and a very different party to represent its interests here in the Senedd. Potentially, future Welsh Liberal MPs at Westminster, affiliated to the wider Liberal movement in the UK, may well be far more vocal than most Welsh MPs (some honourable exceptions) in defence of Wales and Welsh interests but this should not be incompatible with the policies and goals of the Liberal Democrats at the UK level.

The Welsh Liberals of old understood well that constitutional and economic issues are inextricably linked, that to achieve economic and social aims a certain boldness in constitutional affairs was a prerequisite. Considerably more attention and bravery required than is evident in the vague lip service to ‘federalism’, sporadically espoused by the Liberal Democrats today.

Practical Steps

 A symbolic break with the central party and the recent past is a must – call it a 21st century ‘clause 4’ moment for Welsh Liberalism. This is easily achieved, a simple name change should be symbol enough of a new beginning for an old party.

The ‘New Welsh Liberals’ would be a far more attractive proposition in Wales than the washed up Welsh Liberal Democrats. It also sounds like the name of a funky 1980’s New Romantic pop band – Bowie’s ‘Heroes’ is a great campaign track for 2026! A little momentum, and in 2030, who knows, it could be Duran Duran’s ‘Hungry like a Wolf’, as Welsh Liberalism chases down the comfortable hegemony and flips Wales back to its pre-Labour world, where the Liberal party was the voice of Wales.

The internet memes would be fun too.

Identity

Whilst this sounds fluffy and light hearted there is a serious undercurrent here. Liberalism in Wales must define itself clearly so that it can present a platform for Wales designed to improve the lives of the people of Wales. Creating a buzz, momentum and a clear identity are vital first steps that must be taken so that this becomes possible.

Ed Davey’s campaign team taught us during the General Election that if you want to be heard, first you have to be seen. Right now the Welsh Liberal Democrats are invisible. On the rare occasions they appear in news feeds it’s for all the wrong reasons, they face effective electoral oblivion in 2026. Hard to imagine that things could be much worse for them than they already are but retaining just one seat when there are 36 new ones is tantamount to a final death blow for the party in Wales.

Localism

 The Liberal Democrats are famous for fighting (and winning) elections on hyper local issues. That won’t work in Wales in 2026. To make inroads all parties need a ‘blanket’ 12-15% across the whole nation. The Liberals now need to localise the whole of Wales and treat it as a single local election, targeting their campaign to Welsh issues in a very focussed and cohesive way. This may bring them into some conflict with the federal party. Issues which energise Welsh liberals may not be so relevant to the ‘Yellow Wall’ across the South and South East of England.

But the federal party must accept that if they want a strong liberal voice in Wales then they must set it free, the Welsh party must press for and embrace their independence within the federal structure.

There is a longer term benefit to the federal party here. A Liberal revival in Wales will ultimately provide Welsh MPs for the Liberal group in Westminster. In 2029, that may make all the difference. By 2034 it may be the balance of power. People may scoff at such notions but politics is fast moving – anyone who thinks ‘it could never happen here’ may find a short study of ‘En Marche’ enlightening.

Wales needs change and we are at a point in the political cycle where change is an attractive proposition. The New Welsh Liberals can be the proponents of that change in Wales, bringing fresh energy and dynamism to the political debate. Doing so with hope and optimism rather than the politics of blame and negativity which currently empowers Farage’s Reform.

Many in Wales would be drawn to the appeal of a new Liberalism. A Liberalism which espouses a brighter, better future for Wales, acknowledging the need for fundamental change, rooted in the classical liberal values to which a large part of the Welsh population already subscribe.

With a little bravery and ambition, perhaps we can find out over the coming decade.