Andrew RT Davies is wrecking the Welsh Conservatives because he foolishly thinks he can out-Farage Farage

Martin Shipton

Given a choice between Andrew RT Davies and Nigel Farage when one is seeking to find a right-wing populist leader with charisma, there really is no contest.

So it makes no sense whatsoever for Mr Davies to try to out-Farage Farage, which is what appears to be his current strategy.

We have now very much entered 2026 Senedd election mode. You can tell that’s the case because some of the London-based papers have woken up to the fact that it will present a major opportunity to Reform UK, the third and latest party that Mr Farage has led.

Reform polled well but won no seats in Wales at July’s general election, thanks to the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system. But neither did the Conservative Party win any Welsh seats.

May 2026 will be an entirely different story. The introduction of the proportional “closed list” electoral system means that a right-wing, populist party led by a charismatic leader has an excellent chance of doing well. It is, after all, part of the zeitgeist.

Threat

The new arrangements, which also include increasing the number of Senedd Members from 60 to 96, pose a threat to the Labour Party, whose chances of winning an overall majority in the Senedd have significantly diminished, both because of the change in electoral system and for other reasons.

The fact that Labour will have been in power for two years at Westminster is highly likely in itself to result in a loss of support, with all the indications being that living standards for the majority are unlikely to rise over the intervening period. But there is also a sense that there is a greater level of disillusionment with Welsh Labour over its failure to deliver improvements to public services in Wales over many years than has previously been the case.

These factors provide opportunities for opposition parties to make gains.

Nowadays, in this debased era, there are essentially two kinds of political party. There are those that have a traditional ideological agenda, which they use to develop a policy programme that they offer to the electorate. In this category falls Plaid Cymru, which not only aspires to Welsh independence but puts together a detailed set of policies which it argues will make Wales more prosperous and equal. Previously the Welsh Conservatives have done the same.

Grievances

The rise in recent years of the populist right has created a new kind of party that doesn’t so much offer a coherent set of policy proposals as seek to exploit grievances that capture people’s sense of dissatisfaction with the way things happen to be. Such parties can be particularly successful if they have a charismatic leader who appears able to relate to people’s concerns and gives the impression that adopting a “commensense” approach will miraculously make things better. This is what Reform UK is achieving under the leadership of Nigel Farage.

The other day the Guardian published an interesting article that picked up on the fact that Reform was doing well in Wales and was likely to make a mark at the next Senedd election.

Extracts from the piece provide an accurate reflection of the way many appear to be thinking:

* Olivia Jones, 32, a paramedic who lives in Cwmbran, engages with politics mostly on social media, particularly Instagram. “Lots of friends of mine repost reels of different things about the Reform party,” she said, explaining she would consider voting for them. “Just want to vote for someone different … I find Nigel Farage speaks more sense to me than a lot of the others.”

* Immigration is an issue frequently mentioned by voters in the town, but not exclusively; many are frustrated with the state of public services, as well as a general apathy and distrust with capital-centric politics, be that London or Cardiff; and many cite the perceived charisma of Farage as a major appeal.

* [Ian] Stevenson, who works in security, said there had been an increase in foreign nationals in Abergavenny, and claimed a rise in assaults in the town of 14,000 people were being committed by such incomers. The Guardian has found no evidence for these claims. The only houses in Abergavenny are being given to [foreign nationals],” he said. “People that have been waiting for houses all their lives, waiting like in the line, but they [foreign nationals] are coming in and they’re being given the best houses.” The Guardian was again unable to find evidence of these claims.

* Marilyn Bevan, 65, a carer from Abertillery who has previously voted Labour and never Conservative, said: “Labour doesn’t do anything for where I live.” She cited antisocial behaviour, housing and potholes. On Reform, she said: “I do listen to their views and what they say they would do, I probably would next time give them a chance. Farage seems to be personable, and has a good sort of character. He seems to be genuine. A lot of them say one thing and don’t carry it out – he seems to be on most people’s wavelengths.” Bevan said the antisocial behaviour in her town included the use of e-scooters, open drug use and the relentless barking of dogs.

Immigration

Without doing very much, or offering detailed solutions, Reform is gaining traction. Immigration is a non-devolved matter, of course, but that doesn’t deter Welsh voters from being prepared to vote for Reform because of its perceived position on the issue. So far as disillusioned Valleys voters are concerned, frustration with barking dogs – hardly a traditional campaign debating point – is a reason for placing faith in Nigel Farage to make things better.

Predictably, Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru criticised Reform for announcing no Wales-specific policies at the party’s annual conference in Newport’s Celtic Manor Resort. This misses the point. Reform with Farage at the helm doesn’t need Wales-specific policies to pick up significant swathes of support.

And here’s the danger for the Welsh Conservatives – especially given the way they are currently being led by Andrew RT Davies.

Under Mr Davies the party has moved further away from its historic role as the upholder of traditional Tory positions like value for money in government spending and creating an economic environment in which business can flourish. Instead it’s getting attention for his pathetic attempts to jump on what he sees as winning populist bandwagons, but which in fact represent the worst kind of dog-whistle politics, usually tinged with an unedifying dose of racism.

Nasty

It’s mean-spirited and nasty, reflecting a desperate desire to hang on to the coattails of Nigel Farage while making himself and his party look terminally inept.

Mr Davies doesn’t understand that you can’t out-Farage Farage. He’s trying to shift the Welsh Conservatives away from their place as a mainstream party with a traditional ideological appeal onto territory reserved for the populist, insurgent right.

Goodness knows who told him he had the charisma to pull such a transformation off, but Mr Davies and his advisers are seriously deluded. If they carry on as they are, their party will lose what remaining credibility it has.

With a vote on Mr Davies’ future as Welsh Conservative Senedd leader coming up, Tory MSs need to think very carefully about which direction they want their party to take.

This may be the only opportunity they get before it’s too late to do anything constructive.