Are the Welsh Conservatives facing an Extinction Level Event?

Jonathan Edwards

The Conservative Party in Wales is in serious trouble. Last summer I wrote an article arguing that unless matters improved it was on the verge of an Extinction Level Event (ELE).

The polls that are facing them are not getting any better. The Official Opposition in the Senedd find themselves firmly in fourth place with a poll rating of around only 15%.

It is tipping point territory for two reasons. Firstly, the threshold for one seat in the new six-member constituency isn’t far off their poll rating.

In other words, if they were to fall further, they could find themselves not electing any representatives in many of the new constituencies – an incredible fall from grace.

Local organisation

Speaking to someone who understands the new system far better than me, his analysis was that the key determining factor as things stand on whether the Tories win a seat or not in constituencies will depend on local organisation.

For example, they are far more likely to elect one member in Ceredigion Penfro where Paul Davies and Sam Kurtz are operational when compared to Sir Gaerfyrddin where they have no ground operation.

The second reason they face a tipping point is that as it becomes established that Reform is way ahead of the Conservatives and pushing to win the election, those with right wing persuasions are more likely to coalesce around Mr Farage and his Ltd company.

The polls seem to indicate that the haemorrhage is well advanced. I don’t suspect that those on the right have a brand loyalty to a political party that left wing parties enjoy.

In other words, voters on the right will support who they think has the best chance of winning – and that clearly points to Reform at the moment.

Far-reaching consequences

This has far-reaching consequences for UK politics as well. Hence the projections that the Tories could lose 60% of their councillors next week in England.

The Tories face a world of problems. The one glimmer of hope I can offer them is the shrewd appointment of David TC Davies, the former Secretary of State for Wales, as Senedd Chief of Staff.

Top Cat has a considerable strategic brain and in private politically was far more geared towards conciliation and compromise than the public face he projected.

He understands the tensions and dynamics at play across the political spectrum. The Tories will therefore have a plan for the next year which gives them some hope they can refloat the boat.

Strategically they have to decide whether they are going to compete with Reform for the anti-establishment, anti-Senedd vote. I can’t see how they can out-Reform Reform.

The attacks on Gwynedd council’s education policy as linguistic zealotry by new leader Darren Millar indicate that the Tories still think they can defeat the Reform challenge. If I was them, I would fear that such inflammatory attacks will only energise Reform.

It is a strategy doomed to failure unless Farage collapses. They can’t out-megaphone a political party that’s founded on shaking up the system, and Mr Millar has no hope of defeating Mr Farage in such a contest.

Rebrand

An alternative strategy would be for the Conservative Party in Wales to rebrand as a genuine Welsh right-of-centre party committed to the Senedd and empowering the Welsh Government with the necessary fiscal powers to turn around the Welsh economy.

The platform would be based on using Brexit freedoms to devolve significant levers such as Corporation Tax and VAT.

This sits perfectly within traditional Tory values of political accountability and the incentivisation of economic growth. Such a strategy would enable them to fight on a platform of offering a more pro-Wales platform than Plaid Cymru, who have no idea what they would do with major tax powers.

It would also enable the Conservatives to portray Plaid as a party lost in the wilderness of the identity politics rabbit hole.

Witness the response of Sioned Williams to the recent Supreme Court judgment as a case in point.

Which brings me to the ultimate dilemma which may face the Conservatives and why Kemi Badenoch needs to take an active interest in events in Wales.

On a very good day for the Tories next May, even from fourth position, it is not inconceivable that they could find themselves holding the balance of power between a Labour/Plaid coalition or supporting Reform.

That choice will define the Tories across the UK for the period leading up to the next general election and whichever path they take could herald a permanent changing of the guard of the British political right.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010 – 2024