Could the right win in Wales?

Jonathan Edwards

In my previous life I used to hate opinion polls. Don’t get me wrong – I was obsessed with all sorts of data, be it opinion polling, focus groups or voter identification work. It was just that media coverage of opinion polling sucked all oxygen from the political debate.

As someone who is now fortunate to scribble a few thoughts on politics they are captivating, especially when a poll comes along and produces a result that no one expected.

Despite this I firmly believe opinion polls for public consumption should be prohibited during a formal election period. Their very presence means that news coverage both mainstream and on social media during a campaign moves from one poll to the other, and there is hardly any meaningful coverage of the major issues that should be debated during this very period.

As an aspiring commentator, I should learn the perils of penning an article on one poll only to find another poll coming along within days which changes the situation completely, as happened at the weekend.

Earth-shattering

Recognising all the obvious caveats about this being only one poll and margins of error, the latest Barn Cymru poll by YouGov for ITV Cymru and Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre is earth-shattering.

The poll places Plaid Cymru in the lead for the first time in a Wales wide poll for the Senedd since 2010 on 24% of the vote; Labour and Reform on 23% and the Tories on 19%.

If this trend is sustained, then both Labour and the Conservative parties are in deep trouble.

For Labour they are haemorrhaging votes to the Welsh nationalist left and the British nationalist right.

Being attacked from both flanks leaves them politically wide open. If the trend persists and accelerates the threat could become existential.

In Carmarthenshire, as we peeled away Labour elected members in successive elections, the whole operation collapsed like a pack of cards.

The core of the party is rotten: it might not possess the local organisation to recover from a bad election.

Precipice

The Tory brand is on the precipice of existential territory already. This is the second poll in quick succession that puts them behind Reform. The movement to Reform from their natural support base could become a stampede. Although for the right in general this might not necessarily be a major issue.

Of all the parties it seems to me that Reform is the best placed to make advances from their current position.

This should be sending shivers down the backs of the political establishment in Cardiff Bay. Voters of all parties are prepared to vote for them. The reasons for this have been covered in previous articles.

In several conversations last week that I had with normal people in my home communities, I sensed the old Brexit divides emerging. Those that voted Brexit are enthused by the emergence of Reform. Those who opposed Brexit are appalled by Reform.

I sense on my social media feeds the same energy which fuelled the Brexit vote simmering. We know how Wales voted then.

What I suspected would face Wales at the next but one Senedd election might fast forward to 2026.

At the end of the day every election is a numbers game and the only thing that really matters is how the seat allocation for each party will fall. The new system makes matters trickier this time but let’s look at two different calculations I have come across this week.

The first, by Deryn Consulting, places Labour on 25 seats; Reform on 25; Plaid Cymru on 24; Tories 19; Lib Dems 2 and the Greens 1. If this was the case the main strategic considerations are covered in the article published last week.

The New Wales think tank has calculated the following: Plaid Cymru 28; Reform 27; Labour 23; Conservatives 17; Lib Dems 1.

Polarise

If this is replicated it would be an earthquake moment in Welsh politics. Furthermore, if more polls produce results like this over the next 16 months, Labour could collapse as voters polarise between Plaid and Reform.

On this basis the only stable government is a Plaid-led administration supported by Labour.

After a century of hegemony in our country, would Labour be willing to accept a subordinate role be it confidence and supply or a formal coalition? I suspect they won’t make life easy, based on what’s happened in Scotland over the last 13 years, and I very much doubt that the Labour UK Government would give much consideration to demands for more Senedd powers from Plaid.

The right-wing block of Reform and the Conservatives based on this projection would only be five short of majority.

Could they together cross the Rubicon and change Wales forever?

The momentum is with the forces of change. I would suspect that Reform will be highlighting that Plaid can’t change didlly squat without coming to some sort of arrangement with Labour and that their programme to all intents and purposes is continuity Labour in any case.

Plaid will surely polarise against Reform in the hope of siphoning off as many progressive votes as possible from Labour.

Labour must surely do everything it can to destabilise Plaid and present itself as the only credible bulwark against the populist right.

As for the Tories, it seems their best bet is coming to an informal electoral pact with Reform so that both maximise seat numbers. It will be interesting to see how their new leader responds to the dire polling position the party finds itself in.

These are the emerging battle lines as we enter 2025, a year that could change the face of Welsh politics forever.

Furthermore, developments in Wales might give an indication of the trajectory of the political debate across the UK.

If the right was to unite, Labour’s landslide of only a few months ago looks built on sand.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East & Dinefwr from 2010 until 2024.