Devolution at stake as Reform plans a Senedd challenge

Jonathan Edwards

The demise of Vaughan Gething as First Minister has seemed inevitable for a while.

I offer no comment on whether his downfall was based on naivety or something more sinister, but it seems to me that accepting a donation of £200,000 in a Welsh political context was always going to lead to trouble.

Welsh politics has thankfully up to now avoided the sullied reputation of Westminster – it is sad that big money is starting to find its way into our politics. Most members of the public cannot fathom such sums of money and are understandably sceptical about why someone would give such enormous sums to a politician or a political party out of the goodness of their own heart.

Plaid Cymru understandably called for a snap election to end the chaos of revolving First Ministers, employing a tactic very successfully employed by Labour in Westminster as the Tories burned through Prime Ministers faster than a fuse on a stick of dynamite.

The difference being that Labour was 20 points ahead in the polls and heading for a landslide. The latest YouGov poll puts Plaid Cymru only on 14 seats, with Labour projected to win nearly double that number, based on the current voting system and boundaries.

Gimmick

Regardless, it’s a good gimmick and indicates a growing self-confidence within Plaid Cymru after the general election. Politics is all about the Big Mo – momentum is everything.

Generating momentum is the key to all electoral success. The question which now arises for Plaid is, can it build from here and mount a serious challenge in 2026?

With momentum comes expectation. With expectation comes pressure. Can it match what the SNP achieved in 2007? Their strategy based on a message of ‘It’s Time’ is the obvious one for Plaid to follow.

The SNP had some serious operators in its ranks back then. We are about to find out if Plaid Cymru has a group of individuals that can capture a nation as the SNP did nearly two decades ago.

Plaid can hardly hope for a more favourable set of circumstances.

To be perfectly frank, Labour in the Senedd look out on their feet. They have been in government for a quarter of a century and look devoid of a sense of purpose and direction.

Unpopular

By 2026 the Labour UK Government will also be deeply unpopular if it fails to raise people’s living standards. I see nothing in its economic policy or legislative programme which is likely to achieve that aim, which seems totally reliant on external global factors to generate economic growth.

Even if the economy picks up on the coattails of an improved global outlook, the key political consideration is whether normal people feel more financially comfortable as opposed to abstract GDP figures.

The problem for Plaid is that they aren’t the only insurgent force in Welsh politics.

If the general election results are anything to go by, the real story in 2026 could be the emergence of Reform as a Senedd force. Across the south Wales Valleys and Swansea they came second and can credibly claim to be the real opposition to Labour in the most populous parts of our country.

They also have a base in the rest of the country.

Worst case scenario

The Senedd political establishment should be operating on a worst case scenario basis that Reform, aided by the new closed list voting system, easily finds itself as the official opposition to Labour following the next Senedd election.

A party that is openly hostile to devolution in that position would drastically change the political dynamic in Wales.

If we move forward another four years in that scenario to 2030, with a Labour-led Welsh Government on life support and a second term Labour UK Government in a similar state, let’s just say that all of a sudden we could face an election where the main challenger for supremacy will be standing on an abolish the Senedd ticket.

Now is no time for complacency therefore for those of us who want to see our country develop as a political nation.

I see senior Welsh politicians calling for a war on social media against the populist right. To be perfectly frank, a keyboard war is exactly what they seek.

Reform can only be tackled if the political establishment improves living standards and improves public services. On both fronts I am deeply concerned.

If we just briefly touch on health, as an MP I received weekly emails from constituents raging that they couldn’t get an appointment to see their GP, couldn’t find a dentist, or were stuck on never-ending hospital waiting lists.

A cursory look at the Welsh Government’s Budget indicates how health is taking an ever-greater portion of expenditure with no discernible improvement in outcomes and every other public service area is being starved of investment. The situation is completely unsustainable.

Political stars

While the political stars are aligning for Plaid Cymru, they are also aligning for the populist right.

Taking chunks out of the Labour governments in Cardiff and London is obviously likely to be easy in the months and years ahead, but in doing so the established opposition parties in Wales will also be feeding the populist right.

There is an urgent onus therefore on Plaid Cymru, the Conservative Party and the Liberal Democrats to outline an alternative positive vision for a Welsh Government in the lead-up to 2026.

My fear is that those respective parties are so institutionally used to opposition that they lack the intellectual capacity to meet the opportunities and challenges they now face.

For Plaid Cymru in particular, as it approaches its centenary celebrations, it is a matter of make or break. At stake is not just its own electoral fortunes but the existence of the Welsh political institutions which define us as a nation.

Can it cope with the pressure cooker it now finds itself in?

Jonathan Edwards is the former MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr