‘Do we go this way? Or do we go that way?’ – The Welsh Conservative struggle

Lewis Norton

Several weeks ago, I wrote a piece about the need for the Welsh Conservatives to embrace their Welshness on a much greater scale.

As it turned out, the very basis of that argument would come to the surface not long after.

Of course, as is natural in politics, things move very fast. In the charade that has been Welsh politics in 2024, this perhaps hasn’t been more true.

Three First Ministers, a prolonged donations scandal, and the Welsh Labour Party’s divine right of Welsh governance seemingly fading amidst infighting and their pro-devolution credentials being strenuously tested, and yet still the Welsh Tories don’t find themselves positioned to take any advantage.

Of course, UK-wide circumstances have done them no favours. But in an arena where the party could carve themselves a distinct Welsh identity, instead they have opted to tow the same line as the flailing UK party.

A 25 Year Long Struggle

This year marked the 25th anniversary of the first election to the then Welsh Assembly. In what should be an occasion to remark at how far we’ve come in our democracy, instead on the Conservative side, all that can be done is to lament the lack of progress we’ve made.

In a quarter of a century, little has been achieved on the front of settling the division between party members on the subject of devolution. The very fact that Welsh democracy is still up for debate at this point is an incredibly poor reflection on the party.

Accepting devolution has been a huge struggle for the Conservatives. Transitioning from the No campaign in 1997 to establishing a platform to be competitive in Welsh elections was always going to have its challenges. The evolution of the Welsh Conservative stance on devolution can be classed as a ‘struggle’ in the truest sense of the word. The core objections of many of its members versus the need to contest elections.

It is disingenuous to suggest that it has ever been Conservative policy to abolish the Senedd, though it has clearly never been enthusiastic about its being. The party’s 2005 pledge of “a referendum on whether to keep the Assembly in its current form, increase its powers or abolish it” is the closest the party has really sailed to officially supporting abolition.

In the context of Welsh politics, the Tories have always been following, never leading.

In 2003, they opposed primary legislative powers and wanted the Assembly tied closer to Westminster. This would evolve in 2010 to a pledge of a “free vote” in what would become the 2011 referendum on primary legislative powers. Still unable to firmly and enthusiastically support further Welsh powers, this would be a sign of things to come.

Enhancements 

Some Tories will point, with some validity, to the enhancements to devolution over their 14 years of government. In trying to keep pace with the Welsh political climate, the UK party did oversee the implementations of the 2014 and 2017 Wales Acts, within which were transfers of powers which would have seemed unworldly just a few years prior.

However, it’s difficult to say that this ‘settled’ the argument in the party, or that it was any more than attempting to quell the forces of opposition parties by portraying a merely adequate sense of Welshness.

This all leads to the here and now, and can anyone really say that in 25 years the party has moved all that much from doing the bare minimum to remain an electoral force?

Still Asking The Same Question

Boris Johnson once called Scottish devolution “Tony Blair’s biggest mistake” (I mean really, was there nothing else?), and it’s hard to believe the sentiment is much different in regards to Welsh devolution.

The Welsh Tories have never been able to shake off the image of being ‘anti-Welsh’, even when the party has actually tried their hand at fighting it.

Andrew RT Davies’ impromptu poll at the Vale of Glamorgan drew the ire of a lot of people. However, it didn’t draw much of this negativity from the right people.

As much as some may disagree, it ultimately doesn’t matter a whole lot that Welsh nationalists or people who would never vote Conservative in an eternity of elections disapproved, their disapproval doesn’t hold much sway in changing their mindset.

Very few Welsh Conservatives came out against the question being raised and put out any support for devolution. All the more interesting were the actual results of this ball poll. While not exactly utilising the same scientific methodology as a real poll, it still paints the picture of a party internally divided over what by now should be a very simple consensus.

It is unfortunately inevitable that the question is to be asked by someone.

‘Anti-devolutionism’ can’t just be completely ignored. A significant minority of the Welsh electorate believe in fewer or no powers for the Senedd, and it’s obviously important that a governing institution should always have the consent of the governed.

However, the man with the two plastic boxes should not be the leader of Wales’ main right-leaning party.

Welsh democracy is not, and should not be, a ‘left-right’ issue. It is perfectly possible to be on the right and be enthused on the topic of Welsh powers. Ultimately, powers are best when at the closest possible level to the people, and while the Senedd is by no means perfect, it is much preferable to the alternative of centralisation suggested by those opposed to it.

Bad Strategy, Worse Results

The Conservative campaign in Wales in 2024 has been shockingly poor, and is in need
of a massive upheaval.

The Welsh Conservative strategy has been heavily focused on opposing the 2026 Senedd reforms. The Welsh Tories stand as the only mainstream party against the reforms, a title they’re happily espousing even now. Even Reform has come on board, though one suspects that is a matter of electoral self-interest.

The cost of politics is a real issue, none of us particularly like seeing the huge salaries and expenses our politicians can incur. However, we can’t cheap out on the number of our representatives for the sake of it, that justification leads dangerously down the road of abolition.

The sooner the Conservatives give up on this losing battle and focus their efforts on 2026, the better.

No one particularly knows what a Conservative vision for Wales looks like, because we’ve never really been told. The airwaves are too clogged with messages over 20mph speed limits, scandals within Welsh Labour, and most recently the issues over Winter Fuel Allowance.

In lieu of any kind of election winner, the Welsh Tories have relied on issues like these to remain afloat; a strategy that clearly didn’t work this year and likely won’t in two years time.

Future Prospects

So, we’ve seen the ghosts of Welsh Conservative past and present. But what of the future?

It’s hardly a hot political take for me to say that the Welsh Tories have rocky waters to navigate between now and 2026. On the back of an electoral wipeout (even if courtesy of an unfair voting system), they now have less than two years to convince the 2021 Welsh Tory voters not to switch their vote to the two emerging choices, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.

This naturally puts the party in a difficult position a la devolution. Should they continue to walk the path of trying to outflank Reform on being opposed to devolution, or should they finally realise the road to Welsh electoral relevancy is paved with a positive outlook for Wales’ governance?

Far from being certain over the Welsh Conservatives position on devolution, we can’t yet be certain who will be leading them in 2026. Amidst rumours of a power struggle between anti-devolutionists and those more favoured towards devolution in the Welsh Conservative Senedd group, the path the party choose to walk will be pivotal in deciding what that group looks like in two years.

Whoever is holding the reins come 2026 will be leading a party which can be characterised by its past ambivalence towards Welsh devolution. In the face of UK Party leadership candidates like Kemi Badenoch saying that we need to “talk about rolling it back”, they will need to come clean about how they see Wales’ democracy going forward, and choosing the wrong way may have long-lasting consequences for the party.

No pressure.

Lewis Norton is a Welsh Government and Politics MA student at Cardiff University