Embracing the Nation of Sanctuary to defeat Reform

Nathan Phillips Asylum Matters

With the turn of the new year, many eyes in Cardiff Bay are already looking towards the Senedd elections in 2026.

Whilst a week is a long time in politics, a year really isn’t in an election countdown.

There’s been much discussion about the apparent inevitability of the rise of Reform thanks to Wales’ new proportional voting system.

But, it doesn’t have to be this way.

Whilst Reform is certainly polling well in Wales, they crumble under even the lightest scrutiny.

If you don’t believe me, watch Trump’s spurned ex- Nigel Farage and self-proclaimed hero of the Somme Lee Anderson squirm when asked by Will Hayward to name a single hospital in Wales after trashing our NHS.

They are completely candid about seeing the Senedd race as a stepping stone to gains in Westminster, as well as a cash cow.

More seats in Wales means more funding they can spend chasing seats in the UK Parliament.

They are incapable of articulating a vision for Wales, and they don’t even respect the Welsh electorate enough to appoint a leader of Reform in Wales.

Picking apart Reform’s total lack of an offer to the people of Wales is one way all other parties can undermine their influence.

Ambition

Another is not to underestimate the votes to be won by embracing the ambition of Wales becoming the world’s first Nation of Sanctuary.

Yes, anti-migrant rhetoric appears at an all-time high, and over the summer streets were literally on fire when racist rioters tried to burn down hotels with sanctuary seekers trapped inside. But, none of these violent attacks took place in Wales. They were promised, in Swansea, Cardiff and elsewhere. But what materialised instead were large counter-demonstrations of anti-racists showing solidarity with minoritised communities, whilst all the far-right could muster were a handful of social media rent-a-nazis shipped over from England.

You’ll forgive me a wry smile when said racists were subject to tongue-in-cheek ‘go back to your own country’ chants by anti-racist protestors.

When communities in England showed great courage and solidarity in standing up to far-right rioters, communities in Wales showed out in force to do the same but found no rioters to stand up to.

Rhetoric

Furthermore, whilst UK media outlets continue to whip up hostile anti-migrant rhetoric, and amplify the dog-whistles of right-wing political actors, public attitudes towards migration are actually softening, with the numbers of people viewing immigration negatively falling to 32 percent in the last British Election Studies survey.

The mainstream parties should not mistake the same old anti-migrant voices getting louder for them spreading wider.

The quiet majority are welcoming towards refugees – just look at the Penally Welcomes group that organically sprang up in west Wales when sanctuary seekers were placed in an inhumane former military camp.

Yes, the scenes around the Stradey Park Hotel in Llanelli were ugly and lessons must be learned – but equally it should be noted many of the camping protestors were again shipped in from England and specifically a similar anti-migrant camp at Scampton in Lincolnshire, and local tensions in Furnace were inflamed as much by the blindingly incompetent mismanagement of the situation by the Home Office as anything else.

Common sense pro-migrant policies such as lifting the ban on the right to work for people seeking asylum after six months, are actually wildly popular with voters according to polling.

Lifting the work ban, as well as adding £1.2bn of elusive growth to the UK economy according to the Commission for the Integration of Refugees, enjoys 81% public approval – numbers the likes of Welsh Labour would lop off an arm for so close to an election. 

Whilst immigration policy is set in Whitehall, the Welsh Government has pledged to use the powers it does have to make Wales a Nation of Sanctuary. This is also a very popular initiative.

Wales has a proud tradition of providing its own brand of croeso to refugees. You don’t have to look far to find the stories.

I recently found myself exploring in Caerfyrddin, and stumbling upon a pub in Brechfa that displayed on the wall the village’s history of providing refuge to children fleeing Franco’s fascist regime during the Spanish Civil War.

Swansea was the first accredited City of Sanctuary in Wales and the second in the UK.

Wales is full of schools, universities, libraries and theatres with City of Sanctuary UK accreditation – think of the number of people this involves.

Teachers, librarians, academics, students, civil servants, governors, volunteers and more, taking time out of their busy lives to quietly but diligently work towards the Nation of Sanctuary vision by making their corner of Wales that bit more welcoming to refugees.

These may not be the people who are screaming bloody murder on Twitter (that’s what it’s called, I refuse to be told otherwise) or spamming their MS’ inbox with ranty emails – but they’re politically engaged and community-minded, so you guessed it, they vote.

Cosplay

The route to electoral success in Wales for Reform is not inevitable. But it will be if their political opponents make the mistake of the Tories ahead of the General Election and try on their clothes.

The scale of the Conservative defeat in July was down to the seats it lost on its left flank to the Liberal Democrats, not its right to Reform.

Cosplaying as Nigel Farage won’t work. Employing his tired machismo rhetoric about ‘smashing’ gangs, ‘cracking down’ on migration or ‘rounding up’ people for deportation won’t work either.

For that vocal minority who this attracts – they can vote for the real thing, they won’t be swayed by a poor imitation.

No, the way to keep Reform from running rampant in next year’s Senedd election is much simpler.

Expose their lack of interest in Wales and embrace the quiet majority by committing to the Nation of Sanctuary vision.

It requires political bravery on the part of Wales’ political players – but the dividends will be rewarding, not only for their electoral hopes, but for the cohesion and contentment of the communities they serve.