Entropy & Chaos

Ben Wildsmith

By the end of Tony Blair’s first hundred days in office his government had announced devolution referendums in Wales and Scotland, an independent Bank of England, minimum wage legislation, costed plans to reduce class sizes and NHS waiting lists, and significant progress towards the following year’s signing of the Good Friday Agreement.

As we learn that Sue Gray, Keir Starmer’s Chief of Staff, has stepped down 93 days after the election, it’s not unreasonable to make a comparison.

In the years between John Smith’s death and the 1997 election, all but one of the policies mentioned had become familiar to the UK public. The Bank of England policy was held back as a statement of intent for the new government, indicating that it was unafraid to make bold decisions.

The personalities of Blair’s cabinet: Gordon Brown, Jack Straw, Robin Cook etc. had also been established in the national consciousness and explicitly linked to the briefs they would hold. So, when New Labour came to power, we knew what to expect and who was delivering it.

Discipline

To govern in a radical way, Blair knew that message discipline, repetition, and familiar faces were the keys to reassuring a cautious public. With John Major’s Conservatives exhausted from 18 years in power and mired in sleaze, Blair and his communications chief, Alastair Campbell persuaded the UK that significant change was the responsible course of action.

All of the above seems obvious in retrospect but required sound political instincts in its formulation.

Nearly a hundred days into Starmer’s first term, his government has lost control of the narrative. The most recognisable policy decision has been to cut winter fuel payments to the elderly, whilst the news agenda has been dominated by tales of questionable gifts to MPs and donations to party funds.

It’s fair to point out that Blair inherited a healthier economy than Starmer enjoys but the mechanics of politics remain the same. Governments must take bold action upon assuming office. There are two reasons for this: public goodwill is at its highest straight after an election, and it tells the world that detailed plans were made during the party’s time in opposition.

Aside from the granny-freezing, we are still waiting for announcements that would allow us all to discern the shape of the government we have.

Unworkable

Plans to introduce VAT on private school fees are reportedly unworkable, whilst unions warn that promised legislation on workers’ rights is being steadily diluted at the urging of business leaders. An impression is forming that the government is unsure as to what it stands for. The resignation of Sue Gray so early in the day can only fuel accusations of rudderless leadership.

Tony Blair’s embrace of George W Bush’s policies in the Middle East sits alongside the disastrous economics of PFI and a failure to address the needs of post-industrial communities as a lasting stain on Labour governance. Many will never forgive him for it.

His government was, however, consequential. In its first term it was a model of legislative energy and efficient presentation. These virtues flowed from the political instincts of those at the helm. Whether it was turning the death of Diana into a personal PR triumph or brushing off well-founded accusations of corruption surrounding donations from Formula One boss Bernie Ecclestone, these people had a feel for the moment.

Contrast that with Starmer choosing to accept gifts, then claiming there was nothing wrong with it then deciding to return £6k’s worth of them anyway.

War crimes

More seriously, do you think Tony Blair could have been entrapped by a radio presenter into explicitly endorsing war crimes? Would any competent government vote to impoverish pensioners to the tune of £1.2 billion and then publicly hand half that sum to a foreign nation the next day?

Would it announce to the world that the country was broke and then jet off to urge military escalation on the Americans?

Before and during the election Labour operated a ‘trust me bro’ approach to policy presentation. Pointing at the sober figure of Starmer it told us to wait and see the fundamental changes he would bring to the country. None were forthcoming during the campaign, and now we find ourselves waiting for Rachel Reeves’ budget to see what we are in for.

All governments end in entropy and chaos. Mistakes are made, scapegoats dismissed, and factions formed around them. It is the nature of the beast.

The trick is to get as much legislation as you can on the books before all of that overwhelms you.

Sue Gray’s departure comes before this government has any achievements to point to. The moment of its optimum potency is passing without reward.

If it doesn’t seize the initiative presently, it won’t be Lord Alli’s clothes the public are worried by, so much as the emperor’s.