Labour are heading for victory – but with a hollowed-out party

Martin Shipton

What can we expect from an incoming UK Labour government which has, according to the doyen of British psephologists Sir John Curtice, a 99% chance of becoming a real thing this year?

Before answering the question directly, it’s worth pondering on a paradox. A few days ago there was what I considered to be quite a revealing post on X.

Someone called Jack wrote: “All is not well in Cardiff North Labour camp .5yrs ago, 60-70 people would turn up for AGM, last week a mere 18, where no one was willing to stand as chair. The formidable fundraising/leafleting force now dwindled to mostly elected reps!”

So at a time when Labour is streets ahead in the polls, its active membership seems to have hollowed out in a largely prosperous middle class seat in our capital city. But the same seems to be happening in more working class seats too, according to people I know in the party.

There’s some evidence of this in the pictures posted by Labour leafleting teams, which show tiny groups of party activists “on the Labour doorstep”, many of whom are elected politicians. Sometimes the same individuals pop up in different locations.

Welsh Labour Grassroots

Trying to find out what had happened in Cardiff North, I called Steve Davies, a longstanding member of the Constituency Labour Party and a now retired social sciences academic from Cardiff University. I’ve known him for more than 20 years as someone on the left of the party.

He was involved with Welsh Labour Grassroots, a pioneering progressive group which supported the “clear red water” agenda espoused in the early years of devolution by Rhodri Morgan and Mark Drakeford to distinguish what they were hoping to achieve from the New Labour Blairite approach.

He co-produced a very readable satirical blog in those early years and later became one of the organisers of the Cardiff Transformed events where politicians, journalists, academics and others came together to discuss progressive ideas.

Steve told me that he’d finally left Labour last year, with Keir Starmer’s attitude towards Israel’s invasion of Gaza the final straw. He’s also unhappy with what he sees as the huge number of U-turns performed by Starmer since he became leader.

We discussed a promotional video he’d used in his leadership campaign in which he was portrayed as a mineworkers’ hero and a defender of human rights. Steve wasn’t impressed by Starmer’s demonstrable lurch to the right since.

‘Depressing’

He also said: “It’s very depressing how Shadow Ministers are using phrases like ‘The country has maxed out its credit card’ and ‘There’s no magic money tree’ – repeating phrases that they probably don’t believe in, but feel they have to say to appeal to people as if we’re all thickos who don’t understand anything about economics.

“Actually, there’s a good way to talk about economics – by being honest. They could start by pointing out that a huge amount of money was printed at the time of the Covid crisis in order to keep the economy afloat. Also during the banking crisis. And how our economic problems won’t be cured by more austerity. But it’s almost as if they want to hold back from saying that, to give them an alibi for continuing self-defeating Tory policies, if that’s what’s convenient for them.”

Like me, Steve is worried that Labour will return to power with a big majority, but then squander the goodwill it has drawn on to get elected.

When disillusionment sets in, the populist right will be in a good position to exploit it because Labour won’t have articulated a coherent progressive vision. The party’s obsession with winning at all costs seems to have stopped it considering how voters’ legitimate aspirations can be met.

Another big issue is the way in which members of the Shadow Cabinet have been making complimentary noises about Thatcher. Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves devoted most of a recent speech to praising the former Prime Minister’s legacy and Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy described her as a visionary.

I wondered what Shadow Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens would make of this, especially as she recently spoke with passion about how her area of north Wales had been very badly affected by the closure of Shotton steelworks in the Thatcher era.

Employment lawyer

I first met Jo many years ago as a union rep when she was an employment lawyer with Thompsons, used by many trade unions. Her belief in workers’ rights was palpable and admirable. In 2015 Jo was the Labour candidate in Cardiff Central, hoping to win the seat back from the Liberal Democrats.

At the same general election Mari Williams was the Labour candidate in Cardiff North, which she hoped to win back from the Tories.As things turned out Jo was successful, but Mari wasn’t.

I interviewed the two of them together and, while they were both very personable, they were clearly from different wings of the party. Mari’s answers were very centrist, which I’m sure reflected her political position. She was trying to persuade Tory voters to support her instead, and didn’t want to frighten the horses.

Jo, on the other hand, was clearly on the left of the party. Every answer she gave was more radical than the response to the same question given by Mari. Cardiff Central had more students and more ethnic minority residents. The horses in Cardiff Central were unlikely to be frightened by someone expressing support for nuclear disarmament or the renationalisation of the rail industry. But it was clear that she spoke with sincerity.

Clear vision

Responding to my question about the praise given to Thatcher by her Shadow Cabinet colleagues, Jo Stevens said: “There’s no doubt that Thatcher had a clear vision about how she wanted to change the country and she delivered it in a ruthless way whether you agreed with it or not. I didn’t at the time and I still don’t.

“I saw first-hand the damage she caused to communities across Wales including Shotton, which was scarred by the closure of its steelworks. For me, the impact that had on my community growing up is her legacy.”

I found this a good and honest response. In the context of today’s UK Labour Party, where politicians are expected to bite their tongues or preferably discard the principles they may have held for decades with the short-term aim of winning the coming general election, it took courage to say what she believes.

But how many others like her are there? We know there has been a concerted effort on the part of those running the UK party to get rid of as many left wing MPs as possible.

This is driven by the belief that left-wingers inhibit Labour’s chance of victory. I don’t believe that – they have an important contribution to make in a party that – to use the old cliche – has always been a broad church.

By alienating the likes of Steve Davies, and by failing to inspire a new generation of idealistic activists, the Labour Party may win by a landslide in this year’s general election, but lose its soul and continue as a hollowed-out version of its former self.

That clearly has major implications for the future of Wales and Welsh politics.