Labour is Imploding in Scotland – an opportunity for Wales?
Jonathan Edwards
Last July at the general election the SNP were routed, losing 39 of their MPs and left with a Parliamentary rump of only nine MPs. Furthermore, their status as the third party in the House of Commons was captured by the Liberal Democrats.
Labour, after a period of terrible electoral performances over nearly 20 years, reasserted control over its previous fiefdom, winning 37 MPs, an increase of 36.
The SNP had experienced several difficult years which are well documented, in addition to the fissure with its most prominent politician Alex Salmond and other veterans such as my good friend Angus MacNeil. The SNP seemed in deep trouble, especially with the emergence of an alternative nationalist party in Alba.
Eye-wateringly bad
However, the latest Scottish polls are eye-wateringly bad for Labour with the Scottish Parliamentary elections around the corner. It looks like the SNP will be returned to lead the Scottish Government for a fifth term, a truly remarkable achievement considering the systemic breakdown the party has suffered. Furthermore, based on the Norstat survey for the Times, Labour will face its worst ever Scottish Parliamentary performance electing only 18 MSPs, tied with the Tories.
A separate Glasgow Herald poll had Labour winning only 16 MSPs. Despite the dire status of the opinion polls for Labour in Wales they can at least point to Scotland and reflect that matters could be far worse.
The emergence of Reform in Scotland with a poll rating of 14%, only 4% behind the Tories and Labour, is a disaster for both main unionist parties. If the poll was replicated at the election, both Labour and the Tories would only have 18 seats with Reform on 15. The Parliament would have a pro-independence majority which, coupled with Labour’s implosion, would surely reignite the constitutional debate in Scotland.
Pitch
Speaking at the Labour Party Spring Conference in Edinburgh in February 2023, the then Leader of the Opposition Keir Starmer made a pitch for the votes of SNP supporters. He said: “Those Scots who lost faith in Britain, they have a point about Westminster. Britain has an economy that hoards potential and a politics which hoards power, and these two problems feed off each other.
“I’m utterly convinced about this – economic reform and political change must go hand in hand.”
He was of course correct and both he and his aides should reflect on these words as the Labour Party think about the next major electoral challenges they face in Scotland and Wales. If they were wise, they would act before 2026, or in the case of Scotland they will be forced to move if they don’t want the clarion calls for independence to become deafening and face losing their newly gained Westminster contingent at the next general election.
In the context of the constitutional debate in Scotland reopening, Wales must be ahead of the curve or see our nation fall further behind yet again.
The Independent Constitutional Commission chaired by Laura McAllister and Rowan Williams, as well as a host of other reports, provides a firm body of evidence for Labour in Wales to enact and could provide the foundations for the understanding between Plaid Cymru and Labour post-2026 if current projections are correct.
Lead
In politics it is always better to lead than be seen to be hostage to events. The easiest group of voters for Eluned Morgan to appeal to if she wants to make sure her party remain in the ascendancy are Plaid Cymru/Labour switchers.
Furthermore, Reform is benefitting from the stasis in Cardiff Bay. A bold announcement on Welsh powers would be one way to create a feeling of excitement in the country that politics is on the move and that our government will be given the necessary tools to improve the Welsh economy and deliver prosperity. If the current crop of Senedd Members can’t offer hope to our people, don’t be surprised when the Welsh electorate turn to the forces of populism.
There is a viable strategy for Labour to avoid what seems now as inevitable humiliation. It’s time for the Labour Party in Wales to show some vision and courage. The Prime Minister needs to think about the political consequences of a hammering in Wales and Scotland next May and the panic it would let loose within the wider Labour Party.
This gives the First Minister a strong bargaining chip with Number 10 Downing Street.
Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-2024
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Backing the wrong horse there, Jonathan. Labour has lost its allure in Cymru (and look even worse in ‘the UK’). They have failed to show any leadership for our country. They are tired and unimaginative. We don’t want more of the same, and particularly more of Rachel from Accounts. Labour is supporting an economic model for the haves, and which cannot and does not work for most of the people, and is life-expired. They have failed working people, let alone non-working people, apparently their unmentionables. There is an alternative. While the Greens and LibDems look weak alone, an alliance would… Read more »
If only that were the case. Plaid Cymru has “…gain our trust…the ideas, the energy and the talent…”
I don’t know which Plaid Cymru you’re getting excited about, it certainly isn’t the one I – or many others – see.
Amazing things can be seen through those funny specs, especially if you buy the tinted prism to go with them.
If only they would enlighten us, with their ideas, energy and talent, what they have been doing for the last 25 years to lead us to Independence and how they are to achieve it now.
You are having a Giraffe!!!
Humiliation for Reform in Wales would seriously damage their UK ambitions. London Labour absolutely needs to focus on making sure that happens. It’s cheap too, 5% of what it would cost to achieve the same at the UK level.
You cannot be serious!!!
Naive I’m afraid. Wales doesn’t want more of the same – and that includes Plaid propping up Labour yet again (or vice versa). Unless and until politicians on the left get this glaring reality, the march of Reform will continue unabated. Scotland is no parallel.
You’re going to be very disappointed when your ‘party’ of millionaire English grifters implodes.
Not at all. I don’t support Farage. But I do despair of the third rate, do nothing, snouts in the trough crowd pretending to have the best interests of Wales at heart.
Absolutely spot on!!!
Only if fools vote for a party with only a one horse strategy and that’s immigration ,vote Reform at your peril of losing free health care and a carbon copy of Trumps America.
You make a fair point; but also illustrate the problem. The NHS needs reform (but not Reform). It is now consuming over half the Welsh budget and probably two thirds by 2030. But Cardiff Bay is too frightened of change. Meanwhile people are dying in corridors or ambulances and there is no money for anything else.
As I have said several times before: the NHS budget is the highest it has ever been, the NHS headcount is the highest it has ever been, and yet the performance of the NHS is the worst it has ever been. The NHS is a disgrace and the sooner people stopped worshipping what it used to be and woke up to what it now is, the sooner we can have a grown-up debate about whether the fundamental structure is sound. Very few other countries use the monolithic system that we have. Most other countries, including most of Europe, have some… Read more »
You REALLY do have to wake up and smell the coffee!!!
My suspicion – with the caveat that I’ve never lived in Scotland and my impressions of Scottish politics are in consequence only drawn from a distance – is that the distinctly unimpressive performance of UK Labour over its first six months in government at Westminster may be the main reason why numbers of Scottish voters might be reverting to support of the SNP. And that even despite the still rather mysterious disintegration of the Scot Nats during the time which followed the departure from the party of the late Alex Salmond. Here in Wales, however, Plaid has never managed to… Read more »
When the SNP were demonised after the Nicola Sturgeon controversy Scottish Labour and their London puppetmaster UK Labour were rolling about like a pig in the proverbial. For a while they were c**k-a-hoop and squealing with delight at the Scottish Government’s misfortune. Not so anymore, especially after eight months UK Labour in power where authoritarian dictator Keir Starmer is drunk with power whose been copy & pasting the ideas and language of the fascist English Tories and rabid Reform UK. And what better to send Keir Starmer & Scottish Labour a message by firstly wiping them off the political map… Read more »
Look at the Scottish council by election results
I am aware that the Senedd Labour Party has difficulty raising it’s horizons above local council levels. But your point is?
Simple February 20th election result Kilmarnock North (East Ayrshire) Council By-Election Result
SNP: 35.8% (-11.8)
LAB: 27.8% (-0.1)
It shows how people actually vote as opposed to opinion polls which fails to identify those not voting.
I won’t vote for a right wing party obviously but the middle/left wing parties all hate women. The Lib Dems has just said it’ll allow “gender critical beliefs”, Labour says that it will “pledge to maintain single-sex exceptions under the Equality Act. In Scotland Anas Sarwar has outlined his “regrets” at Scottish Labour previously supporting the Gender Recognition Reform bill. Having seen that the Democrats in USA lost partially because of not maintaining women’s rights, some parties have realised that this is a vote loser. But not Plaid or the Green Party and the Welsh Labour is hanging back. Ignore this… Read more »
I suspect the biggest group of voters at the next Scottish elections will be those who decide to stay at home. The SNP have proved themselves unfit for office by prioritising ideology over running the country, while Labour in Westminster have done everything they can to make sure their Scottish cousins can’t take advantage of SNP’s downfall and the Conservatives are making a very weak effort to cast themselves as a change from the party that delivered ever-increasing taxes to pay for ever-decreasing public services. Alba may secure a few seats, as may Reform, but the complete inability of the… Read more »