Latest evidence of support for Reform UK in Wales poses huge challenge to parties on the left

Martin Shipton

Something without precedent is on course to happen in Welsh politics.

The latest “megapoll” on British voting intentions at a general election continues the trend of bad news for Labour, but suggests the party would do spectacularly badly in Wales, winning just five of the 32 seats.

The Find Out Now poll carried out for Electoral Calculus between January 22-29 suggests that Reform UK would win 23 seats, while Plaid Cymru (Ceredigion Preseli and Caerfyrddin) and the Conservatives (Monmouthshire and Vale of Glamorgan) would win two each.

Labour would win the four Cardiff seats plus Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney, with all the rest going to Reform.

While the poll predicts outcomes at the next general election, scheduled for 2029, it provides a pointer to next year’s Senedd election, when more than a century of Labour being the biggest party in Wales could be demolished in a single day.

Up until now, many have been arguing that Labour has shot itself in the foot by insisting that the Senedd election uses the Closed List electoral system – opening the door for Reform to get a sizeable chunk of seats thanks to its wholly proportional nature. But with Reform predicted to take 23 seats in a First Past The Post contest, Labour looks like it may have done itself a favour: on these kinds of figures, it will do better under the Closed List system than it would have done under the hybrid system being ditched.

Exasperation

My first reaction was one of exasperation. I took the view that people were following the latest fad and acting like sheep, without thinking rationally or considering the implications of supporting a party like Reform and what it stands for.

There seemed to be a contradiction between the fact that most people now accept Brexit was a bad idea but that the party led by some of its leading proponents was now riding high in the polls. It didn’t make sense.

Then I was told that a friend who had been a Labour supporter all his life, was certainly not a racist, had always espoused what would be regarded as progressive views and had no time for Trump had joined Reform and was apparently thinking of applying to be a candidate.

This completely threw me and suggested I needed to revise my view of what was happening.

I discussed my shock at this unfathomable conversion with a mutual friend, who is an experienced political strategist, and agreed with him that – apart from anything else – backing Reform was now seen as an acceptable, mainstream option by many people. Nigel Farage’s decision to distance himself and his party from “Tommy Robinson” had helped make Reform appear respectable, and reassured those who wouldn’t want to be associated with thuggish behaviour.

On the issue of people supporting Reform despite believing Brexit had been a mistake, our mutual friend said: “It’s about a lot more than Brexit these days. In fact, it’s no longer about Brexit at all.”

‘Burn it all down’

Asked why people were prepared to trust chancers like Farage and Tice, he said: “I don’t think they do. But they don’t trust anyone. So burn it all down.”

How did my strategist friend think a Reform-led Welsh government would operate in practice? He agreed with another of my friends, who had suggested it would largely be run by civil servants.

“I do think it’s a mistake to believe it will be a ‘disaster’, he said. “There’s a limit to how much you can mess it up and expectations are not high.

“If they’re clever re politics they’ll just focus on a few big gestures – abolishing ‘woke’ quangos, trans stuff etc, and people will think it’s a job well done. Plus lots of money for veterans and a cancer drugs fund.

“The other parties are in complete panic, and don’t have a clue what to do or say – Labour especially. It’s an opportunity for Plaid, though, to be the anti-Reform option.”

Most of this is very depressing, but probably close to the truth.

Dispiriting

As someone who has been on the left throughout my adult life, I find the state of our politics immensely dispiriting. Inequalities are getting worse. Cardiff University, where I did my postgraduate journalism training many years ago, is planning to cut 400 jobs and close down five Schools, while the Vice Chancellor is paid £290,000.

Years of austerity have hit people’s living standards, but the Labour UK government elected seven months ago is not delivering improvements.

That people are turning to the likes of Farage as if he has any real solutions seems absurd to me. What makes it worse is that he is closely allied to Trump, whose style of governing is that of an impetuous and vengeful dictator, who thinks nothing of threatening other countries and attacking international bodies that uphold the rule of law and bring aid to the most vulnerable. Why would anyone sensible want to ally themselves with any of that?

Reform’s current success in Wales is not replicated in Scotland, where the party wouldn’t win a single seat and the contest is between the SNP and Labour. This points up yet again the challenge Plaid Cymru has in breaking through beyond its heartlands. With Labour haemorrhaging support, there should be an opportunity for a Welsh party with nation-building aspirations, founded 100 years ago this August, to come to power, like the SNP did in Scotland in 2007.

Commitment

Plaid Cymru has the advantage of having been around for a long time and of having politicians of commitment and experience in its ranks. It will have the chance to present a comprehensive policy agenda that focusses on the needs of Wales, rather than a cut and paste job from England. Yet to have a chance of success it needs to improve its messaging and shake off the image it has for many of only caring about the Welsh language. That may be demonstrably untrue, but there remains a need to make that known more widely.

Plaid needs to improve its messaging at all levels, not least on social media, where Reform gained traction even before Farage took over the leadership from Tice.

Plaid, Labour and the other parties of the left have a duty to expose how Reform is a party that will act in the interests not of the ordinary people whose votes they are seeking, but in the interests of billionaires like Musk, Bezos and Zuckerberg.

That’s the most relevant message. But it’s somehow got lost in the ether.