Mapping out Welsh independence – what would it look like

Llew Gruffudd

Wales independence. Will the border be hard or soft? Or just a line on a map?

Prior to the Cold War and the fall of the Berlin Wall, the border between East and West Germany had a ploughed strip along its length. This was regularly inspected by the East German military to see if people had illegally crossed.

From the hysteria surrounding independence, some seem convinced that it will be similar along Offas Dyke. (Perhaps to catch English pensioners, heading for life on the Welsh coast!)

Presently, the border between Wales and England/UK, is a line on the map.

There are no fences, walls or trenches. Any future obstacles will be new and entirely man made.

For many however, more generally, the questions are:
Will there be a hard border?
How will I get to work in England?
Will I be able to shop in England?
How am I going to move my goods?

Restrictions

All voiced as concerns that life would be more difficult after independence. And all stated as if Wales was the only country to ever face these issues

The border is defined as hard or soft, not because of walls or fences, but as to the degree of restriction to trade and freedom of movement.

However it is futile to pretend that nothing will change. The question is. How much of a change and will the benefits outweigh these changes?

First some context.

People crossing the border for work, business and pleasure

Approximately 90,000 people cross the border from Wales to work in the UK – predominantly England.
This equates to 6% of the Wales workers.
You would expect this figure to reduce significantly as an independent Wales economy grows.
Approximately 48000 people cross into Wales to work.

There is also a free flow of people crossing for business and pleasure.

So how would this change, post independence.

Some talk, including the recent Commission on the Constitution, of a hard border being imposed by ‘a belligerent’ England. Meaning difficulties visiting relatives or for pleasure. What nonsense.

The question for those prophesying doom is – Why?

Why would England/UK impose unnecessary costs and movement restrictions, not only on Wales, but on its own citizens?

Why? Because England would be a bit miffed at Wales breaking free, or that they didn’t get all their own way in negotiations?

Would they impose costs on the almost £30 billions of trade they do with Wales?

Risk difficulties with vital water supplies?

Jeopardise the supply of renewable energy that Wales would have in abundance?

All because they are a bit miffed?

Logically and reasonably there would be little change.

Borders

Citizens can cross the US/Canadian border for business or pleasure, by simply showing a driving licence or similar.

The people of Sweden and Norway, one a member of the EU the other not, have unrestricted movement by agreement. Indeed much of the 1600 km border is unmanned.

This ID free agreement extends to other Nordic countries. Denmark, Finland and Iceland.

The UK presently has its own free movement agreement. The Common Travel Area (CTA)
This allows freedom of movement between the nations of the UK, England, N Ireland, Scotland and Wales, as well as the Channel Islands and Isle of Man (who are not governed by Westminster) and the Republic of Ireland (an independent nation and member of the EU)
There is no logical reason why the same freedoms should not extend to Wales on independence.

Unlike many negative examples raised to illustrate difficulties, Wales is not at war with the UK. It does not have a standing army ready to protect its borders.

It merely wishes to work under a constitutional arrangement of its own choosing.

There are many precedents to assure the Welsh public that a border should be no significant impediment on independence.

Not least, the protest from the English Midlands if their government introduced any obstacle to their annual pilgrimage to Trecco Bay.

Trade post independence

Some perspective.

A little over 50% of Wales business output is sold internally, that is within Wales. Therefore no tariffs or border checks.

A further 20% is exported, predominantly to the EU. These Wales exporters are already subject to the regulations of those countries.

Which leaves 30% of Wales trade going to the rest of the UK and it is this trade that could be affected by independence. But to what extent?

After independence Wales’ trading relationships with the remaining UK will most assuredly change.

The recent history of Wales’ industrial base has been heavily biassed on supplying parts for businesses in England.

There has been a woeful lack of investing in and attracting the industries of the future, space sciences, semiconductors, transport technology, etc and generally in innovation, research and development.

When this decline is reversed, Wales’ industrial base will change, and will become more concentrated in the future, green technology industry and more international.

Wales will become less dependent on trade with the next door neighbour and the costs of international trade, will be compensated by the higher value nature of such trade.

Resources

With independence Wales will take control of its considerable resources, particularly renewable energy from offshore wind and tidal and marine energy,

In addition to providing a secure supply of relatively cheap energy to its people and businesses, Wales will become a major energy exporter.

This energy will not be subject to tariffs and barriers as other commodities.

As well as Wales exports to the UK, Wales also buys approximately the same value of imports from them. It is therefore in no one’s interests to raise unnecessary barriers to this trade.

Wales exports to the UK are valued at £26.5 billion (UK Department for Internal Market)

The UK average tariff rate is 3.9%, which itself is higher than the average for all nations of 2.6%.

If the ‘ belligerent ‘ UK was to impose their average, in full, on Wales imports, it would raise a little over £1 billion. An unwelcome cost to Wales, but certainly not an economy breaker, or deterrent to independence.

From England’s side. Is such little gain worthwhile, set against the possible retaliatory hassle?

European Union

Wales, on independence, will become a member of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). The UK is already a member.

The purpose of that organisation is to promote the maximum freedom of trade. It prevents its members imposing unnecessary, arbitrary and unfair charges, restrictions and tariffs on others. This will apply to trade between an Independent Wales and UK.

Whether an independent Wales applies to rejoin the EU will be a decision for a Wales government, weighing up the costs and benefits and unlike now, Wales will be free to make agreements and associations, with whom it wishes, at mutual benefits. The change of costs of trading with England will be one of those considerations.

Some want certainty and some use the uncertainties as a weapon, as further obstacles to independence. Such negativity.

Staying in the Union is filled with uncertainties, but based on experience, Wales’ wellbeing is unlikely to improve by doing so.

The reality is that border issues are part of any negotiations that will inevitably come with independence.

There is no reason why Wales should fear the outcomes and should spend its time until independence, untangling its ties. Data and policy presently presented on an England/Wales basis would be a start.

Border issues are one more area where Wales should be concerned with developing its own policies, preparing for independence and less concerned by what England may or may not do.

One certainty is that if the Welsh people want independence, for all the huff and puff and project fear, it will happen and you can still have tea with Aunty Em in Bristol.