Plaid Cymru’s electoral success sets stage for 2026 Senedd election
Anwen Elias, Reader in Politics, Aberystwyth University
Plaid Cymru had an excellent general election. They secured four seats in Wales out of 32, increasing their share of the Welsh vote to 14.8%. That’s a rise of 4.9% compared with the 2019 general election.
While the party also won four seats in 2019, changes to electoral constituencies in Wales for this election, reducing the number from 40 to 32, meant existing seats were merged and expanded.
Despite this, Plaid Cymru maintained its representation.
Two of its sitting MPs were re-elected in the newly formed constituencies of Dwyfor Meirionydd and Ceredigion and Preseli. The party also triumphed in its target seats of Ynys Môn and Caerfyrddin.
These are significant achievements when you consider the challenges facing Plaid Cymru going into this election.
Difficult
General elections are always difficult for parties like Plaid Cymru, which only campaign in a specific part of the UK. However well they perform, they will only ever have a few seats in the House of Commons. With an electoral system favouring UK-wide parties, and which typically gives them a majority of seats, there’s little prospect that smaller parties will have a role in forming the next UK government.
Voters have to be convinced that it’s still important for Plaid Cymru to have a presence in the UK parliament. That’s a tough sell during campaigns dominated by national themes and major political parties.
Plaid Cymru also went into the election after a difficult period for the party internally. In recent years, in general and devolved elections, the party has struggled to make any electoral advances beyond its Welsh-speaking heartlands in north and west Wales. This has raised questions about the adequacy of its campaigning strategies and structures.
Sexual harassment
A report last year highlighted a culture of sexual harassment, bullying and misogyny within the party, leading to the resignation of then leader Adam Price. This election was the first opportunity for voters to assess the party’s efforts to detoxify under new leader Rhun ap Iorwerth.
Despite its commitment to Welsh independence, Plaid Cymru’s election campaign did not heavily emphasise this constitutional goal. A manifesto pledge to “prepare a Green Paper on the path to independence” was given much less prominence than criticisms of the main political parties’ lack of ambition for Wales. And it repeated calls for a fair funding settlement to tackle poorly performing public services and a stagnating economy.
These central campaign messages were targeted not only at voters disillusioned with the incumbent Conservative government in Westminster. They also sought to position Plaid Cymru in relation to a Labour Party that has been in government in Wales since 1999 and which was expected to form the next UK government. Such a strategy reflects the multi-level political dynamics of elections in the UK.
For Plaid Cymru, the general election was also a chance to profile itself, and its new leader, ahead of the next elections to the Senedd (Welsh parliament) in 2026. Plaid Cymru will be aiming to lead the next Welsh government from 2026. This general election has already seen it outline its pitch to Welsh voters.
2026 Senedd elections
The next Senedd elections will probably revolve around Welsh Labour’s track record on public services and economic growth. With a Labour government in Westminster, Plaid Cymru will aim to amplify its claims that Labour is failing Wales at all levels of government.
The increasing unpopularity of Labour first minister Vaughan Gething and the adoption of a new wholly proportional electoral system for the next Senedd election enhance Plaid Cymru’s prospects for a breakthrough. The gains in this general election have provided the party with momentum heading into 2026.
The leadership of ap Iorwerth has been a critical factor in this respect. Recent polling suggests the Welsh public think he’s doing a good job in the role.
The challenge now is to maintain this profile and momentum in the run up to 2026. But while the external context may well be favourable for continued electoral growth, the party’s response to these opportunities will be critical.
It will need to balance its long-term ambition for Welsh independence (which a minority of voters in Wales support) with a credible programme for tackling the more immediate challenges facing the country. And it will need a modern, sophisticated campaign that can deliver votes beyond the party’s heartlands and under a very different electoral system.
This article was first published on The Conversation.
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A non sequitur is defined as ‘a conclusion or statement that does not logically follow from the previous argument or statement’
The two opening sentences of this article surely falls into that definition:
“Plaid Cymru had an excellent general election. They secured four seats in Wales out of 32”
And no mention that they came second in only two other seats.
If I was in charge at Aber I think I’d get my red pen out and write ‘see me after class’
They came second in four seats, not two.
Blaenau Gwent
Caerphilly
Bangor Aberconwy
Cardiff West
Very close in what is now a 3 way marginal in Llanelli also.
Labour majority in 2017 was about the same size as their total vote in 2024. They lost a massive number of votes but Plaid’s share of the vote went up 2.2%. Hardly a resounding success.
We haven’t come close in the past. Labour’s lost vote split between Libs Greens and us while Cons went to Reform. Folk need to vote tactically if they want Labour out next time. Plaid were 3000 votes off Labour which is a thin majority.
Unlike Reform’s increase in votes.
Yep. This article paints a very rosy picture. In most Welsh constituencies Plaid are nowhere. See Gower, Wrexham, Brecon, Monmouthshire, Vale of Glamorgan…. Familiar hubris from Plaid and it’s supporters – about this time in the last Senedd cycle I remember Adam Price being touted as the next First Minister. It’s not going to happen but my advice would be to come to some arrangement with the Green Party.
Llyn’s contribution is a warning – he is absolutely correct, there is a very long way to go, At countless occasions in the past, Plaid Cymru has done well in one election or another and then announced all kinds of wonders. I remember ’66, Gwynfor’s incredible Carmarthen victory was followed by tons of hubris. I remember that “self government in ten years,” was the mantra, totally missing the point that this was one MP in forty and about half a dozen councillors. This has been repeated over the years, during the relatively successful seventies this happened again and was yet… Read more »
Voters have to be convinced that it’s still important for Plaid Cymru to have a presence in the UK parliament. Maybe so, but even more important is the need to convince the electorate to get off its collective arse and vote Plaid in the 2026 Senedd election as much bigger presence is needed at Y Senedd. Sadly Plaid opted to buy into Labour’s faceless closed list “solution” which will do next to nothing to motivate the electorate out of its dozy trance but will work very nicely to secure Labour’s dominant position with maybe a risk of Reform securing seats in… Read more »
Agree 100%
Did you by any chance check out The Plaid Cymru results in the 2019 GE?
Besides holding the 4 seats they had they didn’t even come Second in the other seats.
The 2024 results will tell you that Plaid are on the upwards not downwards.
I think you’ve misidentified the first two sentences as being a non sequitur. It only appears like a non sequitur if the sentences are reversed
“They secured four seats in Wales out of 32. Plaid Cymru had an excellent general election. ”
Even then “an excellent general election” is subjective and relative.
A non sequitur would be
Plaid Cymru had an excellent general election. They secured four seats in Wales out of 32. Therefore they will form a majority after the next Senedd election.
PS I’m not in charge at Aber and am currently red penless.
What Plaid needs are more members and activists. We need people knocking doors and talking to people about our policies and positions. It takes hard graft to win elections so we need as many shoulders put to the wheel as possible. I hope readers will consider joining the party and giving a little bit of their time and energy to help.
You said it…
For years they have neglected to explain that, if you live here, which side your bread is buttered to those not naturally drawn to the Party…IMHO…
Plaid have representatives with strong personal affinities with their voters…so why adopt Mick Antoniw’s idea of democracy…!
Well I hope that Plaid are the story at the next election and not the Reform Party. Mark my words they will way outspend Plaid, lie and take money from anyone who offers it, regardless of criminal prosecutions, and not give a damn what Welsh journalists say about them.
I suspect that your prediction may turn out to be correct. Although, of course, the Labour candidate was elected as the MP for my north-east Wales constituency, the ‘Reform’ candidate here secured roughly twice the number of votes which went to Plaid Cymru.
Cant a chant. Another reason why we need as many activists and members as we can get.
Yep. Farage likes to Trump his way through interviews. Welsh press must pin them down with facts and stop the prevaricating.
https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/nigel-farage-bots-general-election-2024/
Plaid Cymru should start its 2026 Senedd election campaign now. The poor performance of the Labour party in Wales should be continually exposed as well as the incompetence of its individual AM’s. The recent election has exposed the drop in voter support for Labour that needs to be exploited by Plaid so that they secure a win in 2026 and a prosperous future for all Welsh people
They were too slow with the abuse.
Are reform going to pull the rug, that is a concern. Hope they are looking at that.
I bet Rhun doesn’t snap at his colleagues like the fire breathing Gethin 🔥🔥🔥
The Pareto Principle at work: the two constituencies on Cardigan Bay account for around 5% of the population but 22% of Plaid’s total vote.
Election 2026: earlier in the year campaigners against the vote-for-a-party-only reform were recommending to write “I do not consent” on the ballot. This campaign may or may not gather in strength.
Tories di NOTHING FOR WALES so they where voted out in Wales TORY FREE ZONE along come Labour and the Labour Welsh sec told us no H S 2 money for us no bloody different than Tories now vote LABOUR OUT ALONG WITH THE TORIES vote PLAID
They need a plan to crack the Valleys.
Though many are tired after a tough GE campaign, Plaids’s campaign for 2026 should start as soon as possible. If more people outside of traditional Plaid heartlands are to begin voting for the party they have to be fully immersed in what the party stands for, which isn’t and can’t be just about independence. That message will take time to deliver. Perhaps local newsletters could be established highlighting how Plaid will change Cymru, if it gains control in 2026, and what the parties accomplishments up to now have been. Sure this is an expensive endeavour but the potential benefits would… Read more »
Still tainted by association to the Welsh Labour party…
After-all they have helped Labour bring in 20 mph and the increase in the number of MS’s.
Personally, the 20mph does not even register. Association with Labour, well, politics is working across divides. For me, I may well vote Plaid next Senedd election but I need to see w few things first. Nationally, I will vote to keep the Cons out as with FPTP Plaid will have no effect in Wales as such.
Personally I feel the 2024 GE was a missed opportunity. Independence is important but PC was largely ignored in Left media circles because they aren’t English.
Rhun Ap Iowerth had one opportunity in the 7 leader debate, and while it might have rubbed us up the wrong way he needed to link our issues to England. HS2 for us is really no different to the Tories’ putting the Northern Powerhouse down south. Make Labour’s mistreatment of Wales a warning sign for England. That’ll get more mainstream press.
Essentially, do a Farage and point fingers at Westminster.
I think if you’d ask the majority of people in Wales what Plaid stand for, it would be for Welsh independence but nothing more than that. They need to demonstrate to the non-politically aware person what else they offer.
A stark conversation is needed. Independence is the end goal but we are nowhere near that. The attention has to be on building a Wales that is in the best place to make that decision.
The Welsh electorate in 2026 will have a stark choice soon. Either reelect for another 5 year term Welsh Labour and put your faith and trust in the hands of FM Vaughan Gething bankrolled by a twice convicted criminal, a party that’s been in office for 27 years, or give Plaid Cymru & Rhun ap Iorwerth the opportunity to take Wales in a new direction. They are the real change Wales needs. And we can forget about the Welsh Conservatives under Andrew RT Davies. They are not a serious political party in Wales but central government agent provocateurs.. And Reform… Read more »
Plaid have some serious challenges coming ahead of the 2026 election. Yes they won 4 seats (with a decrease of seats from 40 to 32) and increased their vote share by 5%. They came second in 4 seats (they didn’t come 2nd in any seats in 2019) and third in another 5 (close 3 way in Llanelli). However, in most seats they came 4th or even worse. If PC are to win or most likely come 2nd in the Senedd elections (let’s remember they have come 3rd in the last two Senedd elections) they’ll need to adapt. I’m concerned… Read more »