Plaid needs to solve the Corbyn conundrum – and fast
Ifan Morgan Jones
Today’s Welsh Political Barometer Poll makes for very sombre reading for Plaid Cymru.
The poll shows Labour on 50% of the Westminster vote in Wales while Plaid Cymru has slumped another two and a half percentage points to 8%.
I had expected Plaid Cymru to regain some ground as the adversarial, two-party focus of the General Election media coverage subsided.
Instead, Corbyn is continuing to cut through their support like a knife through butter. Plaid will have to hope that 8% is as low as they can go.
The problem for Plaid Cymru is obvious: Given the choice between two similar left-of-centre parties, voters will always pick the party most likely to actually form a government.
Since that shock result in June, Labour has looked for the first time like the inevitable government in waiting, so their support has risen even further.
But while Plaid Cymru continues to bleed support, they don’t seem to have a plan to deal with Corbyn. Little has changed in terms of messaging since the General Election.
The party is a rabbit caught in the headlights of Labour’s Mansel Davies lorry – it needs to move, fast, or it will get squashed at the next General Election.
It can’t afford to wait 10-20 years for Labour’s popularity to wane in office.
To cut through electorally, Plaid Cymru needs to re-frame the debate – not as left-wing against right-wing, where they will always come second best to Corbyn.
Instead, it needs to highlight the real problems Westminster’s negligence is causing in Wales, and contrast that with what Wales could achieve if given extensive power to shape its own future.
Corbyn’s weakness is that he knows little about Wales, and seems to care even less. Labour too often get away with criticising services in England and Scotland that are performing even worse in Wales.
Plaid need to focus all their resources on highlighting this. No tweet, Facebook post or press release should be wasted in the attempt.
Labour is the party of government in Wales. If Plaid Cymru wants to unseat them, they have to be willing to give them a thorough roasting, rather than present themselves as a mostly supportive but mildly critical friend.
A change of strategy is needed. The sad truth is that the party has little to lose – its vote can’t dip much further.
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I have been saying for a long time that Plaid needs to be the most robust opposition possible. Opposition done well carries its own power. Our attitude to Labour is rather naive. As somebody who was in Labour for 16 years, I’m well qualified to make that assessment. We make bad decisions for the right reasons and that has to change. The only way to move Wales forward is to move Labour out of the way. As yet another opinion poll shows, we won’t do that by propping up the status quo. People want change: Plaid must really be that… Read more »
Why would, Corbyn care about Cymru when he can rely on the vote?
Ifan….the problem with Plaid Cymru is that in most voters minds it is associated with the radical Welsh language movement of the last century. Just look at English language broadcasting in Wales. BBC Radio Wales has major issues according to the recent Rajar survey only having a 5.2 reach resulting in 88.8% of English language speakers in Wales never listening to the BBC national station. This despite a £14 million budget. BBC Radio Ulster has a 20% reach. Which means listeners in Wales are influenced by UK national media. I believe there is scope for a Welsh national party but… Read more »
My labour voting mates….has NO IDEA that Labour in Wales has any criticism…..they are literally Jesus on water up here in North East Wales.
Labour is full of nepotism and corruption and yet no one knows – has THAT ever crossed your minds? People are not aware
Edeyrn is 100% correct in his assessment.I can actually bear witness to that. When the local MP tried damned hard to remove the corrupt elements, and hit a brick wall in Cardiff WL HQ.
The nepotism is SOO blatant – it is quite beyond credulity !
Mike it’s got nothing to do with Welsh or radio stations or your invented stats of 90 percent this or that it’s to do with Plaid’s entire direction of campaign travel which is weak and seen by others to be Labour lite.
You’ve tried to turn comments into a language issue before.
Maybe the question should be, ‘Is Plaid Cymru worth saving?’ Plaid Cymru’s ‘socialism’ is really about sexual identification, the politics of race, saving the planet, and other yawn-inducing ishoos that mean absolutely nothing to most people. Labour on the other hand represents the ‘More money in your pocket, Dai’ ‘socialism’ that I grew up in working class Swansea, And THAT’S why Labour is successful. If Labour in Wales started getting too airy-fairy it would lose support. But that support still wouldn’t go to Plaid because the party has nothing to say to the overwhelming majority of the population. Much of… Read more »
cytuno canran
Plaid Cymru are atruggling, in no man’s land, seemingly without direction or a point of purpose and I agree entirely, Ifan, that they need to stop with this we are the Welsh Corbyn nonsense so beloved by Leanne Wood. Actually, it irritates me to see Leanne Wood make weak points on social media and I am now at the point of cancelling my membership through disappointment and disgust. What happened to the party which organised a Special Conference post Brexit, the party that reintroduced independence back into their constitution? Why is Adam Price encouraging YesCymru to be spokespeople on a… Read more »
Well, well. Mae Plaid yn colli i Lafur. Quelle surprise This is something I’ve noted before. And even though I am a Welsh speaker and a member of Plaid (because for me, Labour pissed on the last of its chips after the Brexit referendum by not forcing a general election and winning it when the Tories had fireworks lit and shoved up their own arses) it is only too obvious that trying to be more Labour than Labour is just going to get us nowhere. Plaid has a choice. Either be the Party of Wales that leads a left-ish of… Read more »
Regarding the previous comment about BBC Radio Wales only having a 5.2% reach. The last figures I saw for the BBC’s flagship News at 10 was just 6%, which puts things into perspective. As for the “90% that don’t care about being bilingual”, well some supporting evidence would be nice, otherwise it’s just an opinion. The contributor might also like to consider that the main drive for bilingualism is coming from Labour, whose share of the vote (as the article outlines) is increasing all the time. Far be it from me to deprive Mr Flynn of his daily rants against… Read more »
Plaid needs to appeal to natural instincts, strengths and traits and never back down or apologise for anything about Wales. It has to be single minded and provide the narrative that people can buy into and instinctively support. It has to tap into a competitive spirit and frustration at being uncompetitive – not everyone is competitive, but I would wager that we have more of that in the bones and communities of the people here in Wales than the idealised sense of Britishness and particularly the standard socialist narrative can cope with. Fair Play and compassion, but with a tough… Read more »
Plaid, here is how you can bring down Labour: Labour is bad for business, bad for business owners, bad for entrepreneurs, aspiration, ambition, motivation and visionaries wishing to create projects, enterprises a ventures of all kinds. It’s bad for industry, creativity and under its stewardship the Welsh Language has declined. Plaid must be the party of aspiration, for a better future in an independent Wales. People want to aspire to better. As George Osbourne said: It’s time we fundamentally changed this badly-designed tax on aspiration.I want many others to fulfil their aspiration of owning their own business.Your aspiration is our… Read more »
In many ways I welcome the poll results, because things need to be bad, real bad, for there to be any momentum for change within Plaid. Pleased though I was to see Ben Lake win in Ceredigion, and Hywel Williams retain his seat in Arfon it only helped to delayed the inevitable serious re-think about direction and leadership that needs to happen. One thing that never ceases to amaze me, is how feeble Plaid is when it comes to attacking the Anglo-centricity of Labour. There are so many open goals waiting, begging to be scored, and yet Plaid insists on… Read more »
I used to be a passionate Plaid member, then came 1989 and Elis Thomas accepting a peerage in the English House of Lords. I left in total disgust that Plaid hadn’t turfed him out of the party. For me there can be no unnecessary truck with imperialist institutions such as the House of Lords. I continued to vote Plaid in every election, more from desperation than in any genuine belief that Plaid were any good, or had a hope in hell of actually getting into a position of taking power. I of course voted for Devolution, and dutifully voted Plaid… Read more »
as you said in your piece – don’t hold your breath ! The advent of Cynulliad has turned out to be nothing like an opportunity for Plaid to strike a radical posture and follow through with exciting programmes of Adfywiad ( I like that word, nothing quite like it in English! ). Instead they have accepted the runner up position gratefully whenever available, occasionally joined with the “winners” to cook up some tasteless offerings for the people of Wales. To reignite interest they will have to work hard at the indepth critical dissection of Labour’s blunders at least until the… Read more »
“a fo ben bid bont” There appears to be enough disillusionment and disenchantment with Plaid Cymru from the outside. Plaid might do well to try and reach out and engage with those who have been members and would consider joining again. Can a bridge be built between agitators at the top within Plaid and those on the outside? We’ve discussed the future of Welsh Speaking Communities where the name and philosophy of Plaid Cymru generally tends to command support. Outside of these communities, Plaid does well in areas where the candidate is popular or well known or where the particular… Read more »
Does Plaid Cymru’s Westminster vote drags down or boost its Assembly vote? If voters can’t see the point of Plaid Cymru representation at Westminster and its poor performance at those elections creates an electoral hangover which drags down the Assembly vote, then the Party might well consider whether to contest future Westminster elections at all. Part of Jeremy Corbyn’s success, especially among young voters, is down to his subversive, anti-establishment appeal. So would not-contesting Westminster elections or Sinn Féin style abstentionism benefit Plaid Cymru by make it seem less like a cosy Welsh institution and give it a bit more… Read more »
I find it odd to see people suggesting that Leanne is soft on independence. My perception is that – internally at least – she’s done far more than any leader in recent times to nail down a serious case for it, not in a sloganeering way but in terms of looking at the practical steps that need to be taken in the real world. OK, maybe that hasn’t come across sufficiently in the public arena (one of our biggest problems is our media) but some people seem to be more interested in slogans than practicalities and don’t accept that getting… Read more »
Opinion Polls appear to be notoriously inaccurate these days as they are often prepared by an incumbent self interest author or a promoter.in the Welsh Government or Cardiff University.team..