Predicting the next coal tip disaster

Simon Hobson 

As climate change accelerates, the imperative to understand and mitigate its risks has become an increasingly urgent responsibility for governments and businesses alike.

The intensifying frequency of extreme weather events not only threatens river systems, coastal regions, and upland soils but also exacerbates the legacy risks embedded in Wales’ industrial past.

Among the most pressing concerns is the instability of disused coal tips: vestiges of an era when the mineral wealth of Wales powered the British Empire at a profound cost to its landscapes and people.

For a mining engineer, such as myself, today the primary duty is to safeguard both human lives and the environment: a principle that contrasts starkly with the priorities of the industrialists who once oversaw these Welsh coal operations.

Historically, engineers were instructed to extract resources at minimal expense, with little regard for the long-term consequences. The wealth generated from coal and other minerals flowed into the coffers of mine owners and the British state, while the environmental and health risks were left to linger in the communities whose labour sustained the empire.

Exploitation

The legacy of that exploitation remains palpable. The topography of Wales, coupled with the historical acquiescence of its people to colonial forces, has left the nation vulnerable to the dangers of coal tip instability.

Climate change has only heightened these risks, with more frequent and intense rainfall increasing the likelihood of landslides and flooding. These events increase the likelihood of coal tips collapsing.

In response to mounting concerns, especially after the landslide scare following Storm Dennis in 2020, the Welsh Government has introduced the Disused Mine and Quarry Tips (Wales) Bill, proposing the creation of the Disused Tips Authority for Wales to oversee the safety of these precarious sites.

The estimated cost of stabilising and reclaiming the coal tips stands at £600 million: a sum that reflects the scale of the challenge but remains conspicuously absent from Westminster’s funding commitments.

Legacy

Securing full financial support from the UK Government is not merely a matter of fiscal responsibility – it is a moral imperative. The profits of Wales’ industrial legacy accrued to the British Empire, while the environmental burdens were passed down through generations of people in Wales.

Delaying the necessary investment to remediate coal tips only compounds the risks faced by communities already on the frontlines of climate change.

Mitigating these dangers demands a thorough understanding of the physical risk elements that underlie tip instability. Advances in artificial intelligence offer a promising avenue for enhancing risk assessments.

AI-powered climate risk analytics, already employed by companies like AISIX to model wildfire and flooding probability in Canada, can help governments and insurers identify, assess, and prioritise hazardous sites.

Such technology enables comprehensive site identification and hazard mapping, providing vital insights into slope stability, flooding risks, contamination pathways, and structural integrity.

By harnessing these innovations, the Welsh Government can adopt a proactive approach, stabilising high-risk tips, improving drainage systems, and containing pollution before highlighted problems become a disaster.

Burden

This preventative strategy not only protects lives but also preserves the landscapes of Wales, offering a measure of restitution to communities long burdened by the costs of industrial extraction.

A government’s duty extends beyond crisis response, it must empower citizens to make evidence-based decisions about their lives and the broader environments in which they live.

Investing in cutting-edge risk assessment technologies, securing funding from those who profited from past exploitation: such as the UK government, and making good the landscapes of Wales represent not only practical necessities but also an act of justice.

The scars of industrial history may never fully fade, but by confronting the physical risks of the past with the tools of the future, Wales can forge a path toward a safer and more equitable future.