Running out of steam – how Labour failed with its rail promises

Carrie Harper
Sometimes in life we need to receive the same message in a multitude of ways before the cold hard reality actually sets in.
We’ve been had, duped, hoodwinked. We’ve unwittingly put our faith in something that was never grounded in reality and, as the rose-tinted glasses finally start to crack, the depressing truth can be a bitter pill to swallow.
But it’s a necessary dose of “wake up and smell the coffee”.
Our relationship with Westminster is a prime example of political gaslighting. The recent UK Labour Spending Review has yet again shone a spotlight on the chronic underfunding of Welsh rail but it’s also revealing something much more fundamental: Wales does not matter to London-based political parties.
And yes, I mean all of them.
Side-eye
It shouldn’t be a surprise that organisations with HQs based in the country next door don’t make our needs a priority but it’s a basic truth that has taken a long time to embed itself in the minds of the Welsh public. However, a collective Welsh side-eye is currently fixing itself firmly on Keir Starmer and London Labour.
Right now the Labour machine is in full spin, waxing lyrical about an ‘historic’ boost to rail funding in Wales and describing the UK Chancellor’s announcement of £445m over 10 years as a ‘win’. But there’s an air of twitchy bum about the PR spin, which tellingly began in advance of the official announcement.
The Fiscal Analysis, part of the Wales Governance Centre, has issued a damning verdict on Labours claims.
The reality is that compared to the current spending commitment of the UK Government to rail enhancement projects in England, Wales will get nowhere near our fair share. They state: “Any suggestion that this funding in any way compensates Wales for the loss incurred from HS2 is obviously unsustainable. It does not substantially change the overall picture of underfunding of Welsh rail Infrastructure”.
It’s a politely worded rejection of Labour’s self-described win. To add insult to injury, a quick comparison of the funding allocations lays bare the reality of Eluned Morgan’s so-called partnership of power between Labour in London and Cardiff.
With Manchester receiving FIVE times as much funding as Wales with a smaller population, they’re fooling no one.
Greater Manchester – £2.5 billion
West Midlands – £2.4 billion
West Yorkshire – £2.1 billion
East Midlands – £2 billion
South Yorkshire – £1.5 billion
Wales – £0.4 billion
The truth is that £445 million over a decade is drop in the ocean compared to the billions Wales is owed from HS2 and decades of underinvestment. Until it got into power, Labour bemoaned the fact that Wales had:
11% of UK rail tracks
5% of the UK population
1% of UK rail infrastructure spending.
They’ve now gone quiet on that fundamental inequality.
Smoke and mirrors
This latest smoke and mirrors attempt from Labour on rail funding follows hot on the heels of the recent scandal of Welsh taxpayers subsidising a rail link between Oxford and Cambridge.
The East-West rail project, bizarrely reclassified by Labour as an ‘England and Wales’ scheme in the past year when it was previously (rightly) an English-only project, sees Wales losing out on an estimated £360 million.
Scotland and Northern Ireland justifiably receive a “Barnett consequential”* as they did for HS2 whilst yet again Wales loses out, despite not one inch of track being laid here.
It’s a blatant injustice.
The embarrassment over this latest blunder may also explain some of the voodoo economics on the Spending Review figures. The amount allocated to Wales as part of the spending review period of 4 years is actually £300m, with an additional £145m added in over 10 years. Did Labour simply want to announce a figure higher than the £360m loss to Wales over the Oxford to Cambridge link to try and save face?
There are certainly more questions than answers at this stage, with some also highlighting that buried in the stats is the fact that the Welsh Labour Government has actually received a -0.9% squeeze in their capital budget when compared to the small boost in funding for SNP led Scotland of +0.3% and +0.7% to the Sinn Fein led Northern Ireland Executive.
That’s unsurprisingly not a point they’re including in the current spin.
Labour know the game’s up. They know because recent polling shows the Labour vote collapsing in Wales whilst Plaid Cymru and Reform UK surge.
Two successive polls have now shown a clear lead for Plaid Cymru, now leading Labour by a substantial 14%. Labour voters have finally woken up to Labour’s misrule in both Cardiff and London and it seems the writing is on the wall.
Seismic shake up
The political landscape in Wales is set for a seismic shake up at next year’s Senedd election and you can sense Labour’s desperation as they scan the horizon.
Perhaps that explains Keir Starmer snarky attack on Plaid Cymru’s Liz Savile-Roberts (and subsequent apology); perhaps that explains Mark Drakeford’s petulant attack on Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth in the Senedd yesterday; perhaps that explains the First Minister’s childish jibes every week.
They’re rattled by a party that is ready to take the reins and replace them.
This brings me back to the fundamental issue – being shafted on rail funding is just the latest example of the unfairness baked into the Westminster system when it comes to Cymru.
There is a long line of examples stretching back as far as the eye can see that paint the same picture over and over again. Whether it’s control over our water and resources, a fit-for-purpose devolution settlement, rail funding, the Crown Estate, austerity, child poverty levels, welfare cuts to the most vulnerable, the bedroom tax, you name it, we’re never the priority.
We are not a priority because all London-based parties have a fundamental conflict of interest when it comes to Wales and we see this play out whichever party is in the driving seat in London. Test this yourself – whether it’s Labour, the Tories or Reform, look at how they vote on Welsh issues, look at how they’ve voted historically.
Indifference
They don’t care and the price of their indifference is counted not only in pounds but in people. It’s counted in the unrealised potential of our communities, it’s counted in the appalling poverty levels across our country and I hope in May next year it will be counted in votes as the people of Wales deliver a verdict that’s been a very long time coming.
But in the dawning of this reality, as that message finally locks into place in the Welsh consciousness, it’s important to point people to the primary root cause of the problem and not the periphery. Our issue is simply this, we will never be a priority for Westminster-based parties and a Westminster system that doesn’t serve our needs.
To put it bluntly, the whole house of cards is designed by another country, for another country and we can’t thrive under such a limiting system. It’s no wonder it’s not working.
We have languished behind because of a misplaced faith in those we put our trust in, they’ve let us down and it’s a painful lesson. But just because that’s how it’s been, doesn’t mean that’s how it’s going to be moving forward. All we need is the collective self belief in our innate ability to solve our own problems and the willingness to look beyond what we know and choose a new vision over the comfort of what’s familiar.
We can take the first step on that journey in a year’s time, by ditching London-based parties and putting our faith in Plaid Cymru, the party of Wales.
Cllr Carrie Harper is a Plaid Cymru Senedd Election candidate for Fflint Wrecsam
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One of the first lines in the piece says ‘Wales does not matter to London-based political parties.’ This is a statement of fact and shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. What is even worse is that, from their reaction to this dreadful allocation of funding, this sad, gutless bunch of Welsh Labour politicians are arguing for the absolute shafting of our country, the country that we elected them to look after. Only 12 months ago, in opposition, they were criticising the Conservatives for the fact that Wales wasn’t getting the £4 billion Barnett money from HS2. At the time the… Read more »
‘What he doesn’t mention is that the entire £350 million is to be spent yet again for the benefit of Cardiff and the South East. Nothing for West, Mid or North Wales.’ In fairness, there has been the announcement of the ‘north Wales metro’, which in a rather small way does match the ‘south Wales metro’ project. Although it is indeed a rather small bit of north-eastern Wales – just Wrexham northward to the eastern border area of Deeside – which it will serve. However, those who live and work in some of the less urbanized areas of western Wales… Read more »
Mark Drakeford’s little temper tantrum is very funny!! A real sign that they know that the writing is on the wall.
He is definitely a sheep in a toothless tigers clothing, to excuse the mixed metaphor , plus a mention of Tiger Bay and what some people think of the Senedd !
Watching lame donkey Eluned Morgan and her cowardly Welsh Government ministers spin the poultry £445 million rail infrastructure given to Wales on TV made my stomach turn. The sums of money being spent on those English regions highlighted in the very good article compared to Wales is truly appalling. And ask yourselves this very question. Why? Why has UK Labour opted to shortchange Wales not England , Scotland or Northern Ireland. I’ll tell you why. Because they assume the Welsh are thick. After all, they’ve elected Welsh Labour to power for the last 26 years they laugh. Those Welsh would… Read more »
When will the penny finally drop? When will unionist (the valleys are full of them unfortunately) realise that we never have and never will reach our full potential in Cymru until we become independent from Westminster.
Well said Carrie. With the exception of the England & Wales Green Party, that has declared its support for Independence for Wales, I totally agree with her statement that “Wales does not matter to London-based political parties”. Cymru will only matter to them if, and when, our independence movement becomes strong enough to be an undeniable threat to their precious and beloved United Kingdom. Hopefully this will, at least, begin to happen as a result of the 2026 Senedd election results.
Tom Nairn, Tom Nairn, Tom Nairn. Read his book. Plaid Cymru exists because the UK doesn’t work. Seperatism is the consequence of neglect by the centre. They keep neglecting us, more and more of us give up on the UK.
I can’t help thinking about the situation in Northern Ireland when looking at what’s happening in Wales. There, the two largest parties are Sinn Fein and the DUP. These represent the strongest arguments on either side of the debate and a move away from the centre ground politics that preceded it. Similarly, Wales seems to be moving in the direction of Plaid Cymru on the left and Reform on the right with Labour and the Conservatives sinking in the middle.