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Opinion

The big lesson for Wales in Trump’s return to the White House

09 Nov 2024 6 minute read
Photo Jonah Elkowitz

Martin Shipton

Hand-wringing about Donald Trump’s election victory is simply not good enough.

We need to recognise that his return to the White House reflects the profound disillusionment with mainstream politics felt by many millions of people in the United States – and that such feelings have strong resonances in Wales and Britain as a whole.

The next essential step is to do something about it.

It’s often been said that what happens in the United States happens in Britain some time later. Such are the cultural influences that America has on us that It would be foolish to disregard that.

Trump was described after the election result by the Irish Times’ political commentator Fintan O’Toole as “a sexual predator, a racist, a misogynist, a fraudster, a felon, a coup monger, an inveterate liar and a senescent spewer of increasingly deranged and vulgar nonsense”.

O’Toole added: “The world must now come to terms with the undeniable fact that the US has freely and fairly chosen to embody its values in a man it knows damn well to be all those things.”

Deranged

Of course every word of that is true, but it would be wrong to infer from O’Toole’s well-honed description that Trump’s voters are all psychotically deranged themselves.

Various reasons have been put forward for why the majority of voters backed him. A right-wing Labour friend opined: “For years people will be writing about how the Democrats took leave of their senses, imposing a woke West Coast woman without a primary election when the stakes were so high.

“She’s everything people don’t want. It’s like they’ve learned nothing. She was just the worst candidate for this race. It would be like Emily Thornberry running for Tees Valley Mayor.

“Young angry white men are drawn to Trump: Andrew Tate TikTok people.”

In Britain, we take comfort from reassuring ourselves that Trump could never be elected – that most people would see the character traits identified by O’Neill as factors that would disqualify him from holding any kind of public office or retaining any degree of respect.

For many Americans, however, Trump’s multiple sins are outweighed by the fact that he provides them with a convenient vent for the frustrations they feel as members of a downtrodden working class that feels it has been abandoned by the Democrats.

Looking at some statistics about the lives of working class people in the US underpins such concerns.

Since 2021, when the Biden-Harris team took power, the number of people living in food insecure households has risen from 33.8 million to 47.4 million.

Over the same period, poverty in the US has increased by 67%, from 25.6 million people living below the poverty line to 42.8 million.

And since 2020, the average annual food expenditure per US household has gone up by 35% from under $13,000 to $17,242.

Equally, the average hourly wage for blue-collar workers has barely increased since the 1970s.

Discontent

Figures like this explain the discontent of millions and point up why Trump’s language of toxic insurgency has such cachet. All the celebrity endorsements in the world won’t come close to matching the profound sense of alienation felt by so many.

Much was made by the British media in the run-up to the presidential election of the multitudes of women who would be voting for Kamala Harris because of the draconian restrictions on abortion introduced in some states since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade, which for half a century had protected such rights.

In the end, the lead Harris had in the votes of women was more than outweighed by Trump’s votes among men – and it seemed that many women were more concerned about the rising cost of living than making a stand over reproductive rights.

Of course it’s profoundly shocking that such a vile man as Trump will once again be the supposed leader of the “free world” – not simply because of his detestable nature, but because of the uncertain consequences there will be for the rest of the world if he behaves according to his tyrannical instincts, which will be enabled by a compliant Congress.

Delivery

There is therefore all the more reason for us in Wales and Britain as a whole to put pressure on our politicians to concentrate on pursuing policies that will improve ordinary people’s standard of living. The focus must be on delivery in a way it rarely has been in recent years.

Blaenau Gwent Labour MS Alun Davies had confidently predicted that Kamala Harris would win the election. He acknowledges that he miscalculated.

He told me: “Trump’s election is a disaster for the US and for democracy everywhere. It poses a huge challenge to politicians on the progressive left.

What’s very worrying is that working class people in rust belt states voted for Trump in their droves.

“But I don’t believe that 73 million people voted for Trump because they are all misogynists or followers of Andrew Tate. Many of them did so because they feel that the Democrats are no longer representing their interests.

“What they’re concerned about is being able to afford a home, the rising cost of living, having a reasonably well-paid job and the ability to access decent public services. These are bread and butter issues, and those of us on the progressive left of politics have to prioritise such concerns.

“In the US, many people saw Trump as the politician who related to them. I’m sure that in Britain we in the Labour Party understand what has to be done.”

Brexiteers

It’s by no means clear, however, that such a message has got through to the “progressive left” on our doorstep. Why otherwise would Reform UK have gained as many votes as it did in July’s general election? And why, as things stand, is it likely to have a sizeable block in the Senedd after the election in 2026?

They are, of course, the same people who brought us the economic disaster that is Brexit, although that fact is rarely mentioned by Labour because they are officially Brexiteers too.

There’s a huge irony in the fact that those who exacerbated our economic problems are now exploiting them to their own political advantage.

Unless Labour delivers tangible improvements to people’s lives pretty quickly, it risks being consumed by the populist right.


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AW Savill
AW Savill
1 month ago

Ethyrgyl gwych

S Duggan
S Duggan
1 month ago

The article hits it on the head – politicians in power, if they want to avoid what happened in the States, happening here, need to start improving the quality of live for ordinary people as soon as possible. Discontentment will lead to people like Farage with even more power and that is not good for anyone.

Richard Davies
Richard Davies
1 month ago

Britain did elect an equivalent to trump when we ended up with boris johnson as prime minister following the 2019 general election!

Annibendod
Annibendod
29 days ago

Indeed England did elect a Trumpian PM in 2019 as did a sizeable minority in both Scotland and Wales. Most of those voters are still around and given the right face and the right circumstances, would vote the same way again. What is astonishing to me is that it is blatantly obvious that Trump, Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Farage, Truss etc all so obviously put the interest of capital in front of the interests of workers. Yet a slab of joviality and a tranche of false promises was enough to win them votes. How poor has the Left been? I wonder if… Read more »

Last edited 29 days ago by Annibendod
Padi Phillips
Padi Phillips
29 days ago
Reply to  Annibendod

I agree with your analysis, but please, don’t try and tell me that Plaid Cymru has even got the first clue in how to deal with this situation, which they have been partly responsible for. Where is the loud, and audible in public outcry from Plaid about the sense of hopelessness that’s palpable in community after community all over Cymru, in some of them it’s been a story of decline for the past 100 years, and in many others for the best part of the past 50 years? People want change now, and none of the usual ‘jam tomorrow’ promises,… Read more »

Annibendod
Annibendod
29 days ago
Reply to  Padi Phillips

Who do you think held Labour’s feet to the fire on school meals Padi? Who fought for objective one funding when the Westminster tryptych denied Wales needed it? Who campaigned at the last election to raise taxation progressively on the wealthiest when all the others bar Greens showed how cowed they were by the interests of capitalists? Seriously Padi, if you think our activism is lacking, join us. I can tell you now that we need more members and activists to help us make a difference. Don’t be like JB shouting into the void. Roll up you sleeves and get… Read more »

Fanny Hill
Fanny Hill
29 days ago
Reply to  Padi Phillips

Have you ever considered running for the Senedd?

Jones
Jones
27 days ago
Reply to  Padi Phillips

Agree 100%

Brychan
Brychan
29 days ago

The “Young angry white men are drawn to Trump” is a myth, often portrayed by the BBC. The CBS exit poll shows the Trump vote demographic was 71% white, 11% black, and 12% Latino. Significantly, the only gain, shift in vote for Harris, was amongst white people, that of 5%. More importantly, there was a shift in the black vote to Trump of 1% and a shift in to Latino vote to Trump of a whopping 25%. It was this what won it. Important to look at reality

HarrisR
HarrisR
29 days ago

Nothing will change.

“It’s like they’ve learned nothing. She (Harris) was just the worst candidate for this race. It would be like Emily Thornberry running for Tees Valley Mayor”

You KNOW this Labour would cheerfully impose Thornberry for Tees Valley Mayor in a heartbeat if it suited their hedge fund owners and the Mandelson/Blair ideological axis approved. Starmer is just an increasingly redundant wrapper.

As for Wales, how do you reverse the last twenty years of grey indifference, elite contempt and absolute political banality in the next two?

You can’t.

Rob Pountney
Rob Pountney
29 days ago

So… What we are being told here is that the Democrats had a candidate from ‘the wrong state’, of the ‘wrong colour’, of the ‘wrong gender’, who was too sympathetic to human rights… While we all know the US is not a democracy, this strikes me as being an obscene idea… Obama proved that you don’t have to pander to racist young white males in order to be able to win… As for the rest, however incompetent you may think a political party might be, it does NOT legitimize voting for someone who (to quote Trump’s own former head of… Read more »

Padi Phillips
Padi Phillips
29 days ago
Reply to  Rob Pountney

I think that given that Trump won the election that those votes certainly were legitimised, however much you and I might not like that. It is, after all, how fascists and demagogues get into power.

Alun
Alun
28 days ago

Today’s politicians come across untrustworthy and bereft of common sense. It seems to get harder each year to find someone who aligns with your beliefs that you could wholeheartedly endorse.

Brenig Davies
Brenig Davies
28 days ago

The relevance and quality of a student’s schooling has an influence on later life social-economic status.

An ‘Analysis of the U.S. Educational System’ by The Science Survey organisation concluded that:

‘The United States education system had been believed to be the best until economists realized in the 1980s what students’ test scores had been. – Not one of us had really seen it declining sharply since the mid 1960s.’

Iain R
Iain R
27 days ago

The Welsh Reform Party had its conference in Newport at the weekend. I didn’t see any report in Nation Cymru about it. GB News was banned from the Senedd as “it didn’t represent our values”. A fat lot of good that did in the GE where Reform came third in terms of votes. Farage and his party see the Senedd 2026 elections as the bridgehead into the rest of the UK. They want to overtake the Tories as the main opposition here with the aim of doing the same elsewhere. Unfortunately, the Welsh liberal left thinks it can ignore, ban… Read more »

Jones
Jones
27 days ago
Reply to  Iain R

BBC news did several times. Other outlets like to deny the truth of the situation

Jeff
Jeff
26 days ago
Reply to  Iain R

Conspiracy channels are not news channels.
gbeebies is reform and farages vehicle for their brand of hate.

Ffeminist hen ffashiwn
Ffeminist hen ffashiwn
27 days ago

No one wants to write/talk about what so many Americans voted for. Trump said he’s going to “keep men out of women’s sports” referring to Title 1X which was changed to include men who say they’re women —and “cut federal funding for any school pushing…radical gender ideology.” Trans ideology has been imbedded in Britain in the NHS, schools, civil service and councils even though most people know that mammals cannot change sex. Kemi Badenoch was going to address this – our hope now is that Wes Streeting will carry on speaking up for women. Let the woke left in Britain… Read more »

Linda Jones
Linda Jones
25 days ago

Excellent article. Trump winning the election by a healthy margin should be a warning to UK politicians but it’s unlikely it will. They know best they think. Clearly the working class in the UK have no real representation in politics, their interests, fears and issues are gaslighted by the main parties, both of whom follow the failed neo liberal mantra. So many people are now left high and dry, like the US families here are struggling to keep a roof over their heads, food on the table and the heating on. In other words so many are struggling just to… Read more »

Brenig Davies
Brenig Davies
22 days ago

This Opinion piece, under Brexiteers, falls into the trap of judging Brexit solely short term. Though, short term I do agree with the prevailing economic disaster. It is the consequences of a failing economy on far too many people that   Brexit has become a moral issue. It is the immorality of knowingly that Brexit will result in a weak economy and fall on the most vulnerable. Notwithstanding Covid, our weak economy has far more societal harmful consequences than Brexit supporting politicians, and Brexiteers will admit, or choose to publicly ignore. Of course, Leave Brexit is not confined to the underprivileged, the middle class and small businesses… Read more »

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