The Chancellor might need to get the cheque book out if she wants to save labour in Wales
Jonathan Edwards
We are all awaiting eagerly the next opinion poll on the 2026 Senedd election to see if the seas of change visible in recent polls are continuing their swell to high tide, or if the gravitational pull of the political moon is resulting in the retreat of the waves, and to normal service of Labour domination over our country.
For the purposes of this article, let’s work on the basis that Labour support is continuing to fall in Wales and that its status as the pre-eminent political force in our country is endangered next year.
The loss of Wales would undoubtedly be a psychological hammer blow for the party across the UK and set the alarm bells ringing, especially if the insurgent populist right is in the ascendancy.
So, while some Labour Senedd Members might fancy a spell in opposition relieved from the burdens of power, for the rest of the Labour Party across the UK keeping Eluned Morgan as First Minister is mission critical. Contagion is deadly in politics, especially as the UK polls also report the worrying rise of Reform to a level where they could challenge for victory, come the next general election.
Targeted investments
In a report this week, the Independent Commission on Neighbourhoods (ICON), chaired by former Labour Chief Whip Hilary Armstrong, argues that unless the UK Government targets investment at deprived areas they will hand those communities on a plate to the populist right. While ICON is an England-only body, the same obviously applies to Wales where Reform is polling well in the post-industrial parts of our country.
One of the undoubted problems facing the Labour Party in Wales is the general feeling of stasis in the country. It feels to me as if Labour, after a quarter of a century in charge, is understandably intellectually exhausted. Renewing while in government is an incredibly difficult task. This hasn’t been helped by the financial situation it has faced because of successive UK Government funding allocations.
It is correct to say that the last UK Budget in October 2024 significantly boosted Welsh Government funds. However, it only undid the damage of previous annual real terms reductions – with a huge chunk immediately allocated to pay increases across the Welsh public sector, according to analysis by the excellent team at the Wales Governance Centre. Look at the council tax increases being pre-announced by local authorities across Wales to give an indication of the continuing squeeze on the Welsh public sector.
The old “blame the Tories” line is gone when the purse strings are in your own party’s hands. And the “clearing up the mess of the last lot” strategy is already redundant in the eyes of the electorate.
New powers
In previous articles I have argued that an announcement on new powers for Wales could help address the perception of a country at a standstill, and help Labour triangulate Plaid Cymru. If Labour wants to protect its flanks from the populist right, it needs to also urgently pump investment into the poorest communities in Wales as identified by the ICON report.
During the 2017-19 Parliament, Theresa May offered Northern Ireland a £1bn Barnett-plus bung to win the support of the DUP for confidence, Budget and Brexit votes. The extra investment was made up of £200m of extra capital investment per year for two years; £75m per year for two years for investment in ultrafast broadband infrastructure; £100m over five years on other economic measures; an extra £50m for two years for education and health; £100m for two years for health transformation; and £50m over five years for mental health.
The point being if a Chancellor wants to provide additional funding to a constituent part of the British State outside normal Barnett allocations, it is merely a matter of political will.
Cash injection
A substantial cash injection, or even the promise of one in the shape of extra capital funding, would enable Labour ministers to don their safety helmets and high visual vests and tour the Welsh valleys. It would at least give the impression that the governing party has some answers to the deep social and economic problems our coalfield communities face, and tackle the inertia which feeds populism.
Wales in normal times is taken for granted by the Labour Party at UK level; it is a safe bank of parliamentary seats. But come next May, if current polls are correct, that equation could change and set panic deep within the wider UK Labour party. With a Spending Review due in the Spring and at least one Budget before polling day, it is in the gift of the Chancellor to give the Labour Party in Wales a fighting chance.
The question is, will she act before it’s too late to save her colleagues?
Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-2024
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And the answer is “No, she won’t”. It’s too late already and not sure saving Welsh Labour is mission critical either.
There is something very special about Wales in the Labour psyche. It is part of their story and maters very much to them. Wales has always been seen as reliable. Even in 1931 when Labour was reduced to 52 seats, the Welsh Valleys returned 16 MPs, and it was the Valleys! Even Mr Starmer’s first name Keir takes him back to one of their founding fathers who represented a Welsh seat. To be beaten in Wales would hurt a lot and in my view predict a very difficult future. A few days ago at the London summit on Ukraine the… Read more »
You make some fair points; but I remain of the view that UK Labour are clearly working to a timeline dictated by the next General Election. Despite all of the rhetoric, there no evidence that No 10 is doing anything very much to assist Welsh Labour. Quite the reverse once the return to austerity becomes evident from the spending review. The phrase collateral damage springs to mind
Problem is now re arming and joining the EU. reform are shown for what they are 47 and putin stooges and the tory party trying to defend Vance the other day in the same boat, there are two vectors of hate heading into the UK. I am not completely with labour but at this moment I am glad that they are in charge.
Batten down the hatches Jeff, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
Reform is damaged every time Vladimir Trump opens his mouth.
Nige attacking President Zelenskyy on the radio the other day. This the reform official line? You know, nige who says he knows 47 so well. Nige that says he is a firend of Vance, the same 47 and spare 47 that are doing everything to help putin and nothing to help Ukraine?
MP for Mar a Lago is supporting and boy did it show in his face in the HoC the other day. that, that means Reform is in that mix.
Hows the polls going on Nige leading reform?
For the first time in 3 years there’s a realistic chance of peace in this conflict.
So what is your alternative to keep on fighting resulting in more Ukrainian lives being lost!
If push came to shove would you ever put on your tin hat to go into the front line of this conflict!
Jaw Jaw is better than War War.
Is peace at the expense of freedom actually peace?
Putin can pull out. All that needs to happen. All that ever needed to happen. And trump is just doing everything putin needs to happen.
But that don’t satisfy putins useful idiots in the UK.
Ho hum.
I feel the Labour Party is beyond redemption.
So the idea is to buy the next elections? So much for democracy eh?
it won’t work though: Reform are in ascendence and Labour has no idea what to do about it.
Are you new to this? Triple lock buys votes for the Cons. Levelling Up crumbs bought the North of England for Johnson. House price inflation bought Thatcherites the boomer vote for decades.
Quote from Daniel Davies, BBC Wales political correspondent: “Labour’s 100 years of electoral success in Wales is the longest winning streak of any political party in the world, researchers say. Labour is marking a century since it first won more Welsh seats and votes than its rivals at the general election in November 1922. It has emerged as Wales’ biggest party in every subsequent Westminster election and at all six Senedd elections. Cardiff University’s Prof Richard Wyn Jones said Welsh Labour “is by some distance the democratic world’s most successful election-winning machine”. …….and THE LABOUR PARTY IN WESTMINSTER STILL SH*T… Read more »
A lot of this is down to FPTP though. European elections showed Plaid Cymru and Brexit beating them into third place.
Still over a year until the election. So little scrutiny is applied to what the government is doing day-to-day on health/education and so many articles about an election which is still far off. Labour are probably going to do badly in the next senedd election. It’s worth remembering the last election was their high water since 1999. Whilst they are going through selection processes now, it’s largely gone under the radar how Labour (and I suspect the others as well) are going to struggle to find credible candidates for all seats. As the author alludes, what’s worrying is they’re losing… Read more »
I am sure the Labour party policy of robbing the poorest and most vulnerable in the UK to maintain or even increase the wealth of the already rich and well heeled will not go down well particularly when 1.4 million children in the UK are living below the poverty line. In my opinion Labour have lost the plot and need to go both in the Senedd and Westminster. A spent force. .
London Labour only needs to look for population share shortfalls in “England and Wales” spending and do the right thing. Surely that’s not too much to ask to stop Reform using Wales as a springboard to capture England.