The fourth industrial revolution

Mike Hedges – MS for Swansea East 

We are starting the fourth industrial revolution; the first industrial revolution was powered by coal and involved the movement of people from rural areas to work in factories in the cities.

The second industrial revolution was powered by electrification and petrol; it was based upon the development of assembly lines. The third was based upon computers and improved communications including the internet. Artificial intelligence and nano technology are driving the fourth industrial revolution.

The first industrial revolution started in the second half of the 18th century when the United Kingdom, started industrialisation. Coal mining was the basic raw material used to power steam engines for trains and ships.

Of particular importance for the British economy were technical innovations, which revolutionised the process of manufacturing effectively the move from home working to factories. We had the industrialisation of textile manufacturing driven by inventions such as the spinning jenny.

Modern

The second industrial revolution was a period of rapid industrial development, it was characterised by the expansion of railways, large-scale iron and steel production, widespread use of machinery in manufacturing, use of petrol and the beginning of electrification. It also was the period during which modern methods for operating large-scale businesses came into use and is closely associated with the introduction of production lines.

The main characteristics of the third industrial revolution (the information age) was the introduction of information technology as the main means of information processing in industries and businesses and improved telecommunications, this led to increased productivity because of the integration of information technology with telecommunications.

This involved the development of micro computers (PCs) and the development of a large range of software packages which transformed areas such as typing, accounts and design reducing the number employed. Some of the most skilled work was transformed and the days of large typing pools and drawing offices ended.

Human intervention

In the 21st century we are now in the fourth industrial revolution. Fundamental shifts are taking place in how the global production and supply network operates through ongoing automation of traditional manufacturing and industrial practices, using modern technology, large-scale machine-to-machine communication, and the internet, this integration results in increasing automation, improving communication and self-monitoring, and the use of smart machines that can analyse and diagnose issues without the need for human intervention.

Machines improve human efficiency in performing repetitive functions, and the combination of machine learning and computing power allows machines to carry out increasingly complex tasks. The fourth industrial revolution fosters a production environment where facilities and logistics systems are organised with minimal human intervention.

Artificial intelligence has a wide range of applications across all sectors of the economy. It gained prominence following advancements in deep learning during the 2010s coming to public attention when computers started beating grand masters at chess. Its  impact intensified in the 2020s with the rise of generative AI, a period often referred to as the “AI boom” models can engage in verbal and textual discussions and analyse images.

When people contact financial businesses, the first stage is a chat with AI, only being referred to a human operator when AI cannot answer the question being asked. How AI will develop is not known, but the next stage may be increased robotics, automated vehicles, and real-time data analytics.

In car factories, robots manage the complex painting and finishing processes that give cars their exteriors. From priming and multiple coat applications to sanding, polishing, and inspection, robots are taking over roles traditionally performed by skilled human painters.

Productivity

This transition has brought a major increase in productivity, quality improvements, and environmental benefits. The life sciences industry is changing driven by advancements in biotechnology, healthcare innovation, and increased demand for personalized medicine.

The surprise has been how deployable this technology is to highly creative and high-value work, which had been assumed to be protected from ICT. Jobs identified as threatened by AI include Data Analysts, Customer Service Representatives, Media Content Creators, Legal Assistants and Financial Analysts

Technological change has not been on a linear journey many have failed to achieve what was expected. Examples of technology that has not fulfilled expectations are hovercrafts, Concorde, and nuclear power.

The hovercraft idea was in the 1960s to 1980s very popular with the expectation was that it would be a replacement for cars and boats. Essentially, they are not cost effective due to the fuel and the maintenance costs, combined with the lack comforts for passengers means it has not become a common mode of transport.

Concorde was developed and manufactured by France and the UK under an Anglo-French agreement to create a faster than the speed of sound aircraft. One of the issues that negatively affected the success of Concorde was the cost of fuel which made tickets very expensive and there was a restriction in supersonic travel to only over the sea.

Nuclear power was expected to be the major provider of energy but the cost of creating a nuclear plant, the length of time to build and the expense of decommissioning including the storage of the nuclear waste makes it only viable with substantial government subsidy and the underwriting of decommissioning and waste storage costs.

We do not know which parts of AI will fail and which will succeed, what we do know is that it must work for everyone. Each industrial revolution changed the way of working, improved lives but was disruptive. The same will almost certainly be true of AI.