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Opinion

The Politics of Fear: How disenfranchisement fuels support for Reform UK in south Wales

14 Sep 2024 8 minute read
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage speaking on top of a double decker bus during the general election campaign. Photo Jordan Pettitt/PA Wire

Farrell Perks

For many, deep in the Valleys of South Wales, poverty is the grim reality of daily life.

Utility bills rise, school transport is cut, shops in the high-street close down and inflation bites. Austerity has done a lot to decimate the coalfields of Wales, leaving the population reeling in it’s wake.

These people are scared, poor, confused and unsure how to dig themselves out of this hole. Snake oil salesmen like Nigel Farage have opportunistically seized this shared plight in an attempt to elevate themselves materially and politically.

What Reform UK is offering these disenfranchised voters is an ‘enemy’, someone to whom they can pin their grim reality on, and for a time at least, the opportunity to fight back.

The reality is, there was always an ‘enemy’ for these people, and they sit within boards and think-tanks, rubbing shoulders with bankers and so called ‘political elites’ – The person Nigel Farage actually is, not the insidious caricature of a ‘Man of the people’ he so often portrays.

History has shown us time and time again that if you attack a group of people for their beliefs, however unfounded or misguided, they will dig in their heels, and in more recent cases, begin to view you as the enemy in return.

We need only look towards the state of politics in the US to confirm this in the modern age. A country so divided by politics that a considerable section are openly calling for civil war. Is this really the future we want for the UK?

Are we so blinded by hatred and vitriol that we would ignore such clear warnings of our future and continue down this path of voluntary segregation?

With political rhetoric on both sides of the aisle increasingly becoming combative, intertwining with culture war issues, I would guess that we are much closer to the US’ state of politics than anyone would care to admit. Besides of course those leaders on the far-right openly calling for division, after all, it’s the only way they would be able to hold onto power.

First-hand experience

I feel I can speak on this issue with some certainty because I have first-hand experience campaigning throughout the south Wales Valleys, arguably the poorest area of Wales, perhaps even the UK as a whole.

When I speak to people who clearly indicate that they vote for Reform UK, they are not espousing hate.

There is no aggressive posturing towards fascism or tendencies towards civil war, these people are simply suffering.

Their bills are rising, they cannot reach their doctor, the shops they have known their entire life are closing and Farage is telling them that they need not worry about finding the root cause, he has done the hard work for them – Immigrants are the problem.

Not because of the pigment of their skin, of course, but because we’re giving them too much money, too much housing, too much medicine and too much time and attention.

Their Turkish neighbour, he’s okay, he pays his taxes just like them. The Indian family that runs the nearest takeaway, again, they’re okay. You could one-by-one ask them about every single immigrant in their community and 9 times out of 10 they will describe to you how these community members are absolutely fine, not like those problem immigrants we all hear about.

You and I, reader, know that immigrants don’t receive too much money, unless of course you really think £37.75 per week is too much?

We know that they aren’t receiving too much housing, in fact most migrants have incredible difficulty accessing affordable housing – Legislation across England & Wales places many barriers between migrants and social housing leading to the vast majority of migrants ending up either in private renting or unfortunately homeless.

We also know that they aren’t receiving ‘too much’ healthcare, in fact migrants in the UK suffer severe barriers to wellbeing leading many to forgo treatment, treatment that if ignored usually leads to larger problems. The problem with all of this, though, is that it’s hard to find this information for the average person.

Most people, especially down here in the Valleys, work long hours most days of the week, and want nothing more than to just rest and not have to think about how pervasive societal injustice is when off work.

For many, there isn’t even time to rest, as children require attention when not in schools or there are even those working second jobs to make ends meet.

Compassion and constraint

It’s hard for many to put themselves in the shoes of prospective Reform voters. We often see the racist populist rhetoric for what it is and subsequently disregard the struggling person underneath it all.

Don’t get me wrong, I have no doubt there are some out there that buy into the fascistic tendencies of Farage and the likes, with no qualms about the ramifications, though I do think that they are a vocal minority, and in any case, these are not the people we’re talking about.

During my time campaigning I have spoken to hundreds of Reform voters, and only once have I come across an individual I would consider to be a ‘Reform Absolutist’ if you will.

In almost every single case, the individual fairly quickly indicates their main cause for voting such a way, and it is always fear, without fail.

Fear of many things, fear of rising costs, fear of lacking healthcare, fear of waning culture, the list is endless. The connecting line between them all, is that Reform UK has told them who is to blame for these fears.

They turn up empty, though, when asked how Reform UK intended to fix the issues causing their fears, beyond of course the catch-all “End all migration”, which again, we know isn’t the problem.

The first, and perhaps most crucial, step we should be taking when combating this, is making politics easier to understand. And when I say politics here I mean everything, policy, bills, parliament, the whole lot. The reason Reform is finding it so easy to outright lie to these people, is they have difficulties finding the answers for themselves.

Understanding the bills our parliaments vote on, should be step one for anyone participating in a free and fair democracy, but the support just isn’t there. Second, we need to stop simply ostracising these people, as it does nothing but push them further into the willing arms of those leading them astray. I’ve no doubt that it will be difficult to do that for many, but the alternative is a firm drawing of battle lines between left & right, something a modern democracy doesn’t need, or perhaps couldn’t even survive.

Third, politicians, and more importantly the Welsh Government, need desperately to communicate more with the electorate. Too often decisions are made seemingly in the shadows with people left to read about it via reactions from political pundits rather than from the source itself, serving only to further disenfranchise people from democracy.

A path forward

If we are to prevent further fragmentation of our political landscape, we must approach these issues with empathy and understanding, not condemnation. People in the Valleys and beyond are not gravitating toward Reform UK out of hatred, but out of desperation, fear, and a sense of abandonment.

They are being sold easy answers to complex problems by opportunists who thrive on division. The only way to counter this is by meeting people where they are, listening to their concerns, and offering solutions that address the root causes of their struggles – poverty, failing services, and political isolation.

It is critical that we invest in political education, transparency, and engagement, making it easier for people to understand the systems that govern their lives and participate in shaping them. In Wales, as across the UK, we need leadership that doesn’t retreat into sound bites or scapegoating but faces the tough realities of inequality head-on. Only by doing so can we create a political environment where fear no longer drives people into the arms of right-wing populists, but instead, fosters a society where everyone feels seen, heard, and supported.


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GaryCymru
GaryCymru
2 months ago

Unfortunately, all of the accurate facts you mention above just aren’t known by the majority of reform voters.
It will always be easier to react with grossly uninformed hatred, than informed discussion. Unfortunately, the main demographic of reform voters seem to be the uneducated and hard done by.
These people will always vote according to what their favourite media outlet tells them, rather than what their own thinking tells them.

Margaret Helen Parish
Margaret Helen Parish
2 months ago
Reply to  GaryCymru

People are aware far more than you realise!

NOT Grayham Jones
NOT Grayham Jones
2 months ago
Reply to  GaryCymru

Wow it sounds like you have a superiority complex which is a behavior that suggests a person believes they’re superior to others when you say reform voters are uneducated and hard done by. Problem is GaryCymru those “uneducated hard done by people” have a vote which counts just as much as yours and to think of them in such a way just makes them more determined to put the likes of you Liberal elite types in their place. I believe the next Senedd will have a reform majority because of attitutes like yours.

GaryCymru
GaryCymru
2 months ago

Nope. Zero superiority complex here. I just own enough common sense to know a complete con when I see one.
It’s that simple.
If people were to go and vote “due to my thinking” as you suggest, then I feel you’ve kind of proved a valid point.

Linda Jones
Linda Jones
2 months ago

I agree with much of the article, gross inequality inevitably leads to a breakdown of social order and the rise of the far right such as Reform. Unfortunately neither the tories or Labour will fix this, they are too absorbed in the neo liberal, monetarist ideology to even recognise the problem.

Having said that it is clear that those arriving here without permission does worry many. It has allowed Albanian drug gangs to flourish for example. That has to be stopped

Jeff
Jeff
2 months ago

Yeah, reform, the party that treads a very fine line to avoid censure but I know what they are. I know the people they want to attract and people they will try to fool to attract. Its leader is fond of US ex pres 45 that admitted to being a sex pest (and adjudicated in the US courts) and tried to burn a nation and will try again and looks to be unhinged. That UK party leader would see the same fire burn in the UK and repeated without checking the hate that led to the UK riots recently. Certainly… Read more »

Cablesreet
Cablesreet
2 months ago
Reply to  Jeff

ReFUK is about to get a lot worse if that’s possible. Pertinent article in Searchlight magazine regarding Patriotic Alternative planning to infiltrate Reform, “Clean skin Neo-Nazis to infiltrate Farage’s Reform UK”.

Jeff
Jeff
2 months ago
Reply to  Cablesreet

Yeah, farage boasted about taking bnp on and beating them, sounds like bnp just changed hats. They had to kick out a lot of people they recruited for the election when the press did some digging. His mo is right out of trumps backers playbook.

Sure that”infiltrate” is the right word? Just joining up would do it.

Padi Phillips
Padi Phillips
2 months ago
Reply to  Jeff

Patriotic Alternative is much, much worse than the BNP. Your average BNP member would struggle to tie their bootlaces properly. Patriotic Alternative contains elements from the now banned National Action, and they certainly aren’t knuckle draggers.

It also seems that Patriotic Alternative uses a similar model to Reform in that it’s a limited company.

Given that Patriotic Alternative seems to be slowly morphing into a replacement for National Action, them infiltrating Reform could get Reform banned. That would be quite a neat result.

Jeff
Jeff
2 months ago
Reply to  Padi Phillips

Not thought of t that way.

Cablestreet
Cablestreet
2 months ago
Reply to  Padi Phillips

I like your logic.

includemeout
includemeout
2 months ago

There’s a lot to agree with here. Because the political class is now completely polarised – if you’re not a pukka progressive, fully on board with every facet of the intersectional Omnicause, then you must be an out-and-out raving Trumpist – they tend to assume that everyone else must be the same. In reality, most people are civilians in the culture wars, and are inclined to roll their eyes and sigh at the excesses of both sides. Until something precious to them becomes a battlefield, forcing them to pick a side or get mown down. The difficulty is, fixing the… Read more »

hdavies15
hdavies15
2 months ago
Reply to  includemeout

People perched at the extremes offer daft solutions. Far Right & Far Left are only a fag paper apart when you look at how deranged they are. Far Left seem wedded to some fantasist world view that will take away what’s left of your freedoms while the Far Right will blame anyone but themselves for the predicament we live through. Both extremes about much use as a wet paper sack.

Padi Phillips
Padi Phillips
2 months ago
Reply to  hdavies15

The far left aren’t even within an ace of achieving any significant political power. The far right are. That is the crucial difference. I’m also convinced, and this article explains why with great clarity, that those people supposedly in the middle ‘rolling their eyes’ are precisely those who will vote Reform. Not because they are fascists, because most aren’t anywhere being that, but because they’ve been persuaded by a snake oil salesman who really has nothing to offer, but those voting for him won’t realise until it’s too late. A bit like Brexit really, fearful people voting against their own… Read more »

hdavies15
hdavies15
2 months ago
Reply to  Padi Phillips

Look at my response to CapM further up this page. Labour and Plaid have been negligent in not getting stuck into those issues which were evident long before 2016, but after that Brexit vote they should have been far more active in addressing the root causes. Instead we had a long dull diet of rhetoric.

CapM
CapM
2 months ago
Reply to  hdavies15

If you are referring to immigration.
The management of immigration is the responsibility of the UK.
I can’t remember an occasion when Plaid Cymru formed the UK government.
Whatever noises Plaid Cymru make about immigration are ultimately irrelevant to this UK government issue and only effect the level of support at elections Plaid Cymru gain or lose.

For other issues Plaid Cymru only get more influence with Labour if they win more Senedd seats. Or run the show if they get a majority.
Ultimately they don’t because the heart of the electorate is still Unionist.

Martyn Vaughan
Martyn Vaughan
2 months ago

I see little hope as these same South Walians were easily persuaded by Farage to shoot themselves in the foot by leaving the EU.

Dr John Ball
Dr John Ball
2 months ago

To me there are two basic issues.
Ultimately, the problems of the valleys are about economic opportunity.
Economic development has been the responsibility of the Labour controlled Senedd since 1999. Endless inept ministers and no coherent policy his has led to abject failure.
Would it be over cynical of me to suggest that keeping the valleys poor suits Labour – blame everyone and anyone, but please, not us…
And where’s the ‘Party of Wales?’ Asleep, as ever.

Vincent Van Go
Vincent Van Go
2 months ago
Reply to  Dr John Ball

The economy isn’t devolved.

Dr John Ball
Dr John Ball
2 months ago
Reply to  Vincent Van Go

Economic development policy is!

Vincent Van Go
Vincent Van Go
2 months ago
Reply to  Dr John Ball

How can you develop the economy without control of the tools and levers needed to develop the economy?

Dr John Ball
Dr John Ball
2 months ago
Reply to  Vincent Van Go

Your response is perhaps indicative of a fundamental misunderstanding of the economy.
The Senedd inherited a number of development powers, notably from the WDA and DBRW and has powers that sit along with economic development.
In a nutshell – powers to develop industrial sites; provide finance (itself or through Finance Wales) including grants, loans and equity; advice services; planning and highways – and education..
All these, taken together, are useful and indeed powerful economic development tools.
All these powers are greater than any other part of the UK, except Scotland

Padi Phillips
Padi Phillips
2 months ago
Reply to  Dr John Ball

I memory serves me correctly i also seem to remember that the two development agencies in Wales also had the powers to actually set up and run businesses, (similar to Northern Ireland) and then move them on once they were up and running, but the Welsh Office never utilised that ability.

Dr John Ball
Dr John Ball
2 months ago
Reply to  Padi Phillips

Thank you Paddy. I am not aware of such powers and if they did exist they were certainly never used.

Vincent Van Go
Vincent Van Go
2 months ago
Reply to  Dr John Ball

It’s like bailing out a leaking boat when someone keeps making more holes. At some point you have to look at the way the UK economy is rigged to benefit London and say, isn’t it time to fix the root causes.

Dr John Ball
Dr John Ball
2 months ago
Reply to  Vincent Van Go

As ever, don’t blame the Welsh Labour government, the problems in Wales can be blamed on everyone and anyone else.
Vincent – the bottom line is that the Senedd DOES have considerable economic development powers which it simply does not use.
It’s easier to bleat while keeping the valleys poor.
Wake Up!

Vincent Van Go
Vincent Van Go
2 months ago
Reply to  Dr John Ball

Let’s look at the three you listed. Develop industrial sites: this won’t help if industry doesn’t want it because UK level policies are not supporting industry anywhere in the UK. Provide finance: this helps traditional business but wont support unicorn businesses because state backed finance can’t gamble with taxpayer money. Education: this helps the individual be more successful but if they use it to move to the richest part of the economy where jobs and opportunities gravitate then Wales hasn’t benefited. What’s missing is any macroeconomic policy that makes Wales or any other nation or region more attractive than London… Read more »

Last edited 2 months ago by Vincent Van Go
Dr John Ball
Dr John Ball
2 months ago
Reply to  Vincent Van Go

There’s insufficient space to address these issues in depth, suffice to say that all have their part to play but within a coherent, consistent policy. Your comment on the need for a macroeconomic policy for Cymru is entirely correct – that’s the point! I’m not going to comment on “bribes,”I’ve said plenty in the past about a “policy” that simply means throwing money at often doubtful schemes. Changes in corporation tax is not a suitable policy and is being quietly dropped in many places, not least that an organisation has to earn substantial profit to begin with before any incentive… Read more »

Vincent Van Go
Vincent Van Go
2 months ago
Reply to  Dr John Ball

Heaving control of corporation tax, combined with single market access, turned Ireland from an economic basket case under Whitehall control into the second richest country in the world.

Dr John Ball
Dr John Ball
2 months ago
Reply to  Vincent Van Go

I am well aware of the success of Ireland. The success was based on careful identification of growth industries (not the dummies who came here) and the incentives were not just tax – appropriate education and skills were in many ways far more important. There were other advantages. A substantial diaspora, notably in America and at the time of peak investment the world economy was booming. Investment has slowed down and now there’s a problem. The EU is not happy and over 35% of all tax raised is from these investors which is risky. I note that you have not… Read more »

Vincent Van Go
Vincent Van Go
2 months ago
Reply to  Dr John Ball

But those states have control of macroeconomic policy. The problem in Wales is being part of a larger economy that doesn’t play its part. That’s why the promises of devolution haven’t been met because they assumed and expected a fair partner in Whitehall. You only have to look at the flimsy excuses to not devolve APD to see that’s not the case. That might’ve been acceptable if they chose to fix the problems it causes (underperforming regional airports) instead but they didn’t do that either. The root cause of all this goes back hundreds of years with the misguided ideology… Read more »

Last edited 2 months ago by Vincent Van Go
Dr John Ball
Dr John Ball
2 months ago
Reply to  Vincent Van Go

I entirely agree!
There is my opinion both as an economist and an unashamed nationalist, that the way forward is independence.
However, what started this debate – and I stand by it – is that the Labour controlled Senedd does have significant economic development powers which it refuses to use.
Reason? Keep Wales poor and stay in power by blaming everyone else for our nation’s malaise.

Dr John Ball
Dr John Ball
2 months ago
Reply to  Vincent Van Go

I replied earlier today but for some reason it has not appeared.
I agree!
As an economist and life long nationalist I believe – and have always believed – the only way forward is independence.
May I say however that your responses miss the point. This discussion started with my pointing out that the Labour controlled Senedd does have substantial economic development powers which it chooses not to use.
Why?
It’s easier to keep the people of Wales poor and then blame anyone and everyone for our nation’s malaise.

Welshman28
Welshman28
2 months ago
Reply to  Vincent Van Go

If you believe that why comment. Vaughan Gething as business minister in the Labour senedd lost more business and no investment to the valleys than ever seen before

Ernie The Smallholder
Ernie The Smallholder
2 months ago
Reply to  Dr John Ball

If you feel that way join Plaid Cymru, and become active. Wake Cymru to the benefits of independence.

Dr John Ball
Dr John Ball
2 months ago

There are many hard working Plaud Cymru members for whom I have the greatest regard. The leadership however is a self serving clique, afraid both to commit to independence or take on their chums in Labour.
Incidentally, in how many elections have you stood, won or party offices held?

Wiwergoch
Wiwergoch
2 months ago

Neither of the two main parties are willing to take drastic measures to cut down on immigration. Reform claim they will freeze non-essential immigration. People are going to be voting for them. I don’t think that being a nation of sanctuary is a priority for struggling families.

Padi Phillips
Padi Phillips
2 months ago
Reply to  Wiwergoch

Immigration from outside of the UK isn’t significant in Cymru. Immigration from within the UK is, but not into the areas under discussion here. These communities are the survivors of the imposition of brutal neoliberal economic policies that just closed down the industries that once thrived there, and indeed were the reason those communities existed in the first place. Nothing serious was done by either the supra-national government or the national government in Cardiff Bay to rebuild the economic fortunes of those communities. These communities should have been the focus for action decades ago, and the concerns of the people… Read more »

Last edited 2 months ago by Padi Phillips
Stephen Morris
Stephen Morris
2 months ago

If people need an enemy, then Labour are the enemy. They’ve abused 100 years of voter loyalty while pursuing policies which do nothing to help people in Wales, especially not the poorest. It’s increasingly obvious that the people in whose interest they govern are professional middle-class public-sector workers, of whom very few live in the areas where Reform are doing well. People are looking for an alternative, but options have been few. The Conservatives have been anathema since well before Thatcher’s time, and it’s hard to see a day when they’ll ever overcome their toxic legacy in industrial Wales. Plaid’s… Read more »

hdavies15
hdavies15
2 months ago
Reply to  Stephen Morris

.. and it doesn’t make a meal of blaming Johnnie Foreigner for all our ills. Native talent and ambition stifled by the negative influences of Unionist Uniparty policies and practices are the major flaws. Too many native Welsh are wedded to that way of doing things despite the evident repeated shooting in both feet !

Padi Phillips
Padi Phillips
2 months ago
Reply to  Stephen Morris

I don’t think Wales’ answer to the AfD is a real option.

Cablesreet
Cablesreet
2 months ago
Reply to  Padi Phillips

I’m not the only one to have seen through them then?

hdavies15
hdavies15
2 months ago
Reply to  Padi Phillips

Reform is the AfD replica here in Wales. It has a supremacist, xenophobic content that is not a feature of Gwlad. Some Gwlad members have a resentment of our near neighbour’s supremacist and presumptuous stance towards our people, culture etc which may be expressed in prejudiced tones but still a long way from what gets spouted regularly by Reform members and supporters.

Rob
Rob
2 months ago
Reply to  Padi Phillips

I don’t know exactly where Gwlad stand on the political spectrum than that they are on right. But I would much rather Welsh voters went for them and not for Reform.

Ernie The Smallholder
Ernie The Smallholder
2 months ago
Reply to  Rob

…….. As long as it doesn’t divide the independence vote due to FPTP.

Cablesreet
Cablesreet
2 months ago
Reply to  Stephen Morris

Gwlad is a joke. Did incredibly well in the last Senedd elections I believe.

David
David
2 months ago
Reply to  Cablesreet

I’m led to believe that Gwlad did not contest any seats the last Senedd election.

Ernie The Smallholder
Ernie The Smallholder
2 months ago
Reply to  Stephen Morris

Plaid Cymru has NEVER been cosying up to Labour.
Unlike the Lib-Dems, Plaid Cymru has never accepted any minister post within a labour government during this Senedd, but, had advised on different policies as the constructive opposition party in Cymru.
I urge all supporters to organise in YesCymru, support (& join) Plaid Cymru in the interests of our nation gaining independence, so we can plan our own future and not let it be determined from outside our country by the UK.

Dr John Ball
Dr John Ball
2 months ago

You are mistaken, or deliberately ignoring the facts.
Plaid Cymru was in coalition with labour. Four ministers and the hapless IWJ was deputy FM.
This was then followed by the euphemistically referred to as an arrangement.
And you are doing Cymru no favours with your constant call for YC members to join Plaid Cymru – the great strength of YC is that it is NOT a political movement, attracting supporters from all or no political parties.
And if you believe P C believes unequivocally in independence you clearly reside on another planet.

Jack
Jack
2 months ago

Hmm. Too many can not see that voting for populist parties may be a positive thing of voting for traditional values which have been overlooked for too long. Politicians believe they know best and impose their views on others. When many people get a chance they vote against the imposed (left /woke) values and for tradition.

Fanny Hill
Fanny Hill
2 months ago
Reply to  Jack

Human sacrifice was traditional, so was bear baiting, owning slaves, child chimney sweeps, beating your wife, beating your children. Those were the days.

Last edited 2 months ago by Fanny Hill
Adrian
Adrian
2 months ago
Reply to  Fanny Hill

So was the importance of the nuclear family – with a father and a mother, a solid work ethic that kept you off benefits, taking responsibility for your life choices, and not allowing your daughter to go out dressed like a hooker.

Jeff
Jeff
2 months ago
Reply to  Adrian

For real?
Dude, we left the dark ages some time ago.

Adrian
Adrian
2 months ago
Reply to  Jeff

…and look how well it’s worked out.

Jeff
Jeff
2 months ago
Reply to  Adrian

Still in the dark ages but you have effectively just said that women getting raped and abused are at fault, in case you missed what you wrote about clothing and the terminology you used.

Abuse such as that has only one problem at its root and that is men. Males.

Tiny
Tiny
2 months ago
Reply to  Adrian

Plenty of nuclear families who pay their own way manage to turn out sociopathic damaged goods because they outsource all their parental responsibilities to nannys and private schools. Often their humanity deprived progeny become Tory MPs.

Ernie The Smallholder
Ernie The Smallholder
2 months ago
Reply to  Jack

Those ‘traditional values’ expressed by ReformUK are certainly not the value of Cymru not their interests.

Jac
Jac
2 months ago

Plaid Cymru needs to be active and campaigning in the Valleys over the next 2 years in order to put a positive alternative to the people of these deprived communities, a vision of putting Wales first and ending the pillaging of Wales by the British state. Countering the right-wing populism of Farage and his henchmen with left-wing populism and a clear vision of how we can end poverty in Wales by taking control of our natural resources, crown estates etc.

Adrian
Adrian
2 months ago
Reply to  Jac

Plaid are just another bunch of hucksters pretending that men can become women, that there’s an impending climate catastrophe, and that low-skilled immigration is a net benefit. The reason that the right is in ascendence across Europe is because the left peddles delusional nonsense: people have had enough of it.

Last edited 2 months ago by Adrian
Jac
Jac
2 months ago
Reply to  Adrian

Give your head a wobble lad

CapM
CapM
2 months ago
Reply to  Adrian

At least the pretence of not being a Reform UK Party Limited cheerleader has evaporated.

Rob
Rob
2 months ago
Reply to  Jac

I agree to an extent that Plaid needs to be more active however it needs to adopt a Wales First strategy and not a left wing one. It needs to counteract not just Farage but also the Westminster establishment and the Welsh Labour establishment both of whom are guilty of taking Wales for granted.

John Ellis
John Ellis
2 months ago

One of the major opinion pollster businesses has recently published its latest ‘state of political public opinion’ estimates in which they project that were an election to take place right now, Llanelli would return a Reform UK MP.

Not exactly the first place in Wales where I’d have anticipated such an outcome. I think that election results during the next few years might sometimes throw up some surprises.

CapM
CapM
2 months ago
Reply to  John Ellis

“One of the major opinion pollster businesses has recently published its latest…..”
Which one is that?

John Ellis
John Ellis
2 months ago
Reply to  CapM

Survation.

CapM
CapM
2 months ago
Reply to  John Ellis

I can’t find anything about Llanelli and Reform UK Party Limited winning the seat on

https://www.survation.com/https-www-survation-com-archive-2024-2/

Can you point me to what the assertion is based on. Diolch.

John Ellis
John Ellis
2 months ago
Reply to  John Ellis

My mistake – it wasn’t Survation but Electoral Calculus, to whose e-mails I also subscribe. Take a look at:

Seat Details – Llanelli (electoralcalculus.co.uk)

CapM
CapM
2 months ago
Reply to  John Ellis

We had a conversation about Electoral Calculus’s method before the last general election. Their site then allowed lots of goes at putting in voter info and for me their predictions of who I’d vote for were basically based on which party I voted for the last time. In any case I think it’s a bit early for predictions of voting intentions in five years time and so comes under the ‘just for fun’ category. If they do some calculations for the Senedd election then it will be more useful but I suspect they might not have the ability to take… Read more »

John Ellis
John Ellis
2 months ago
Reply to  CapM

I wouldn’t disagree with you there, overall. And I think your point that ‘… it’s a bit early for predictions of voting intentions in five years time …’ is indisputable!

Dr John Ball
Dr John Ball
2 months ago
Reply to  John Ellis

Perhaps the people of Llanelli have woken up to the failings of labour and simply turned to a ready alternative
Which begs the question. Where is the “Party of Wales” (sic)?

Ernie The Smallholder
Ernie The Smallholder
2 months ago
Reply to  Dr John Ball

Plaid must canvass in Llanelli now for the next Senedd election in 2026.
We must succeed, Plaid Cymru is now the only party defending the democracy of Cymru within Llanelli.

Last edited 2 months ago by Ernie The Smallholder
Jack
Jack
2 months ago

I dislike this article because of the asumption that only disaffected people vote for Reform. That may be true for some but not all. Some Reform policies have some appeal across the nation such as scrap the net zero target (why go for net zero as the UK only contributes 1% to global warming so bakrupting the country to go to net zero is pointless as what the UK does will have no worldwide impact), banning transgender issues in schools (many will consider transgender issues have no role in schools especially in primary schools), tax relief on independent school fees… Read more »

CapM
CapM
2 months ago
Reply to  Jack

A recent Ipsos poll indicates that twice as many respondents 52% compared with 26% prefer to vote for a party that “takes strong action against the things that cause climate change” rather than one that” will slow down actions against things that cause climate change”, https://ipsos-insight-llc.foleon.com/ipsos-thinks/ipsos-net-zero-living-2024/ Therefore both Reform Limited and you are not reflecting reality. Reform Limited has a motive for misleading the public the rest of us a a responsibility to see beyond the propaganda technique of repeat:repeat:repeat until a critical mass of the electorate believe to put it bluntly what is a lie. Transgender issues is basically… Read more »

Rob
Rob
2 months ago
Reply to  Jack

“leaving the ECHR”

What and fall into the same category as Russia and Belarus? No thanks. The ECHR was established by Churchill after WW2 to ensure everyone’s human rights are upheld, including mine and yours. Our rights are non-negotiable.

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