The Trump New World Order leaves Brexit Britain isolated
Jonathan Edwards
The British Government must surely by now set up a dedicated unit within the apparatus of Number 10 to plot a response to the daily announcements by President Trump.
I wish them well as the US President has lost none of his ability to make on-the-whim outlandish policy statements.
Conversely, I often wonder whether the US Federal machine has the capability to deal with the political style of the US President. For example, on the Middle East and his promise to turn Gaza into Atlantic City 2.0, did the Pentagon immediately begin preparations for a ground incursion and the forced removal of two million people?
With his promise that “all hell will break loose” unless all Israeli hostages are returned by Hamas by midday this Saturday, are US military assets in the region ready to unilaterally end the Gaza ceasefire?
And are State Department officials desperately trying to lessen the impact such a hostile act would have on political stability in the region at a time when the President has unleashed the tech billionaires to gut the machinery of the US Government?
Losing sleep
Returning to the response of the UK Government to events, the Prime Minister and his aides must be losing sleep. At the beginning of the week, without any warning, Mr Trump promised to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium entering the US.
We know that the President likes using tariffs as part of a diplomatic tool to gain concessions in other areas; however, it’s difficult to see how there will not be reciprocal actions on exports from the US, leading to increased protectionism across the globe.
These sorts of actions tend to spiral. The UK economy is a paper ship about to be let loose in a hurricane. Hoping that the UK’s Ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson, can tame the impact of US policy is showing Baldrick levels of cunning, despite his reputation as the Prince of Darkness.
Was the UK decision not to sign a global AI declaration in Paris this week driven by US’s decision to refuse?
There seems to be a considerable lack of engagement in Parliament with the seismic events before us. Only 18 MPs bothered to attend an urgent question on the President’s steel tariff announcement, and not a single Welsh MP contributed.
The lack of interest results in our political class having no idea how to respond to unfolding events. I am not convinced that a ‘don’t poke the bear’ response is going to protect Welsh jobs.
Russian/Ukraine border
Perhaps more worrying has been the Presidential announcement in relation to Ukraine. Unless commentators are very much mistaken, President Trump is about to draw a new Russian/Ukraine border in a meeting with President Putin. Furthermore, President Zelensky will receive a copy of the communique once the big boys have left Saudi Arabia.
This would probably entail Ukraine being forced to accept losses to its territory to Russia, completely undermining NATO policy to date. Furthermore, the new border will likely be hot and contested and policed via a demilitarised zone.
The Ukrainian side will require significant international military support to hold Russia in check. I think we can safely assume that President Trump will believe that Europeans should be performing their own security responsibilities themselves. Defence expenditure as a percentage of governmental spending is going to increase substantially and a second cold war on the continent is upon us.
British exceptionalism
These major foreign policy changes on trade and security leave the UK Government with two paths. One driven by British exceptionalism that believes the UK can navigate these events alone and that Trump can be tamed like a pet tiger. A second one based on realism – that the only sensible course is for European countries to work together within common structures.
I don’t envy UK Government Ministers. They should however carefully reflect that there will be no sympathy for them in posterity if they don’t react to world events as they arise, instead sticking their heads in the sand.
Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010 to 2024
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Thanks for the catch-up, could you brief charity shop managers in your area to be vigilant against pro-reform propaganda….
Let’s look on the bright side. From now on, Europe’s belligerati will have to face the consequences of their war habit. No more shooting their mouths off and hiding behind the big kid. And, if you’ll allow an old man a moment of happy fantasy, it might even bring forward the glorious day when the people finally tell the politicians and scribes where to stick their stupid wars, their bombs and flags, and their noble causes that others must kill and die for.
Brexit has been an unmitigated disaster, yet Reform UK looks poised to sweep the Senedd Elections next year. Why? Because after twenty-five years in power, the Labour Party in Wales—whether governing alone or with Plaid Cymru—has achieved shockingly little. Beyond free bus passes, what tangible progress can they point to? In devolved areas like housing, where are the bold initiatives? Waiting lists grow longer, construction rates lag, and economic policy remains stagnant. Eluned Morgan seems content to gaze meekly toward London, waiting for instructions rather than leading. And let’s be honest: a Plaid Cymru government would likely fare little better.… Read more »
London Labour should seize this opportunity to reindustrialise. Agree moderate tariffs that align with the US which are enough to make onshoring of production worthwhile. After covid no-one needs convincing of the need to have a domestic manufacturing sector. Trump is an opportunity (gift?) to finally undo Thatcherism. Labour should embrace it. It doesn’t belong to the right. The future of the planet is regional sufficiency, not global. We need to make more stuff and trade it freely with our nearest neighbours.
Yes, we don’t need container ships of stuff from China
Ah, but you see….Net Zero.
Outsourcing our emissions is dishonest and counterproductive carbon accounting because we should be rewarded for making it here using cleaner processes versus bringing it halfway round the world from places that produce it using older and cheaper methods that produce more emissions. If The Right were worth their salt they’d be arguing for this obvious flaw to be fixed instead of banging on about woke lids.
How the policies of Trump pan out will be linked to how well Reform do next year. Yes, there still will be plenty of people who’ll vote for them, even if the world around them is crumbling, but it gives an opening for left leaning parties to grab hold of. However, parties, like Plaid Cymru, need to focus on how it will change the fortunes of the Welsh public. They need to be brave and honest and bold. By brave and bold what the UK government is doing has to be avoided. Listen to Labour in London – we can’t… Read more »
Snd then there’s the question of how far it’s a Musk New World Order
If someone said that speech by Vance was written for him by Putin’s team would anyone be surprised?
I thought Vance’s comments were truly disgusting, especially when they were directed towards Romania a country with a history of communist oppression. You can not defend freedom and democracy on one hand and then meet up with the AfD afterwards. Whilst yes extremism exists across Europe, they do have a collective memory of authoritarianism and totalitarianism from the 20th century: Nazism, Fascism and Communism. Something that the Americans (and to a certain extent the British) could not understand.
Narnia, a close anagram…
Stormy Daniels must be a little anxious knowing what cruel and vengeful fellow he is…