The unseen cost of Wales’ new 20 mph speed limit
Professor Stuart Cole, CBE, Emeritus Professor of Transport Economics and Policy, University of South Wales.
From September 17th the Welsh Government 20-mph default speed limit replaces, in urban areas, the current 30-mph.
The change means there are cost implications on logistics and bus operators through increased drivers’ hours and less efficient vehicle operation with vehicles operating at lower speeds.
In much the same way as traffic ‘humps’ on bus routes cause increased wear to vehicle suspension and fuel consumption with consequent increases in cost.
This column’s discussion concentrates on implications for the bus industry of the new speed limit. However, the same principles apply to the retail and other logistics operations.
Imagine the delivery of fresh bread usually between five and six-thirty each morning. The route timing is based on vans travelling on near-empty roads at up to 30-mph.
The reduction to 20-mph reduces van and driver productivity leading to increased distribution costs and a possible increased bread prices to the customer.
Longer journey times
Bus passengers, will have to face longer journey times on urban routes. Companies will require additional vehicles and driver shifts if the current bus service frequency is to be maintained. Increased drivers’ hourly rates, currently under negotiation with the trade unions, will also increase costs .
Despite increased pay rates, many drivers are unhappy, often negative, about their responsibility versus pay rates when compared with e.g. retail store employees. Putting more running time into the timetable could reduce their negativity, but the source of funding for such a move is not evident.
The alternative would be to introduce, at the same time as the new speed limit, a raft of bus priority schemes on all routes where other traffic congestion adversely affects their operating timetable. Castle street, Cardiff and Kingsway Swansea would be good examples.
One objective of the new speed limit is to make car journey times less attractive than buses. Separating buses from cars can reduce bus journey time, the equivalent of increased running time but without the additional cost. Otherwise buses will follow slower moving traffic.
Assuming this bus utopia could be achieved and demand increased then the many single deck vehicles currently in use could be replaced by double deckers so reducing the number of buses (and drivers) required in the peak.
Factors affecting local bus demand includes fare levels, journey time and service frequency. Covering those cost increases can only be met from two sources – a fares increase, which will deter people from using the bus, or an increase in government payment per passenger for bus pass users; money which the Welsh Government and the county councils do not have at present.
It is not only driver wage costs which have risen. The capital cost of E600 low emission engine buses has risen slightly to £160,000. However the move towards electric buses can increase that to £400,000 per bus.
Other costs including engineering (and training engineering staff to be proficient in electric / hybrid vehicles), IT, fuel, spare parts and insurance have risen significantly. The last is related to the other increased costs particularly in engineering.
Accident insurance payments involving new (and in particular electric) vehicles have risen. If a bus is accidentally in contact with a car, then a new Tesler will cost considerably more than a Ford petrol / diesel car to repair.
Profit margin
A bus operator needs to achieve a profit margin of about 10% on a local authority bus tender. This covers the possible cost increases over the length of their contract and the possibility of the contract not being renewed following cuts in public sector finances. On commercial services companies make their own independent profitability-based decision to withdraw / introduce a service with only 56-days-notice to the Traffic Commissioners required.
The last two years have been difficult for bus companies, Fortunately the Welsh Government’s Bus Transition Fund and other Covid related payments helped maintain services, enabled companies to continue trading. Otherwise bus operations would be limited to the profitable core network.
However BTF was only ‘sticking plaster’ arranged at the last minute, guaranteed until March 2024. On this basis many companies are not prepared to invest in new / additional vehicles with such an insecure financial future and cannot afford to accept another 11th hour funding scheme as they did in May 2023.
Major cross-town or inter-town routes are often the flagships of bus companies being the most profitable and forming a significant part of their core network (see What is happening to bus travel in Wales). A service currently operating a fifteen-minute frequency would reduce to every twenty / thirty minutes with additional journey time (from the 20-mph limit) reducing passenger numbers.
The proposal for Welsh bus franchising is included in a bill currently being considered by the Senedd. However the transport minister has been advised in recent months that that is not a financial possibility at present. Rail services currently under direct government control are allowed a 2% profit margin
Rush hour
Ironically the am / pm urban travel peak – the traditional rush ‘hour’ which reduced bus speeds has now largely gone. So journey time savings which could have been achieved along with an operating cost and fares advantage is prevented by the new legislation.
The modern urban bus is designed to travel in a certain gear up to 30-mph, and a higher gear at 40-mph. It is not designed to travel at 20-mph and frustrated drivers will have to override the automatic gearing system installed in all buses.
It is a valuable safety system in buses which enables the driver to concentrate on passengers and the road ahead. So one might say that adversely affecting the bus’s inbuilt safety system will detract from the safety objectives of the speed limit. It will also cause extra gearbox maintenance costs.
The bus industry faces a ‘triple whammy’ from:
- The reported 25% possible reduction in subsidised bus services mostly in rural Wales.
- Bus passenger numbers have not reached their pre-Covid level in 2019 when demand was increasing and demand predictions were very positive so no additional income from more passengers.
- Increased costs including those resulting from the speed limit reduction
The Welsh Government’s objectives are appropriate but it would have been better advised to:
- initiate the scheme in big urban areas (Swansea, Cardiff / Newport and the Valleys) where the greatest number of road casualties and deaths occur.
- introduce bus priority measures to accompany the scheme
- delay the scheme’s introduction until the bus industry’s current challenges are solved and revenue support funding is available.
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Now think of the knock-on effects on domiciliary care workers who are expected to journey from one call to another, often at the other side of a town or valley, who have a timetable to follow. Calls are often time-sensitive (due to medication needs); staff are already overstretched; travel takes up a large part of the overall hours (although typically ‘unpaid’ by private providers – mileage at circa 45p per mile not worked hours at circa £10.90 per hr). So there is likely to be an impact on efficiency of calls, a reduction in overall capacity, and an increase in… Read more »
Stuart thinks only of the benefits of reduced urban traffic casualties, but not of the benefits of humanised village centres with increased cycling and walking. Think of St Nicholas or Dinas Powys on west Cardiff commuting routes. Such benefits can’t be so easily quantified as Stuart sketches out for bus operations. At least Stuart gives no credence to the £4billion of the Tory anti-20mph campaign. That comes from giving a value to an extra minute or two on billions of car journeys 0n the standard Dept Transport calculator. No-one believes in such hypothetical costs; for example, the reduction in congestion… Read more »
I don’t know about others but I know five families including my own who travel to Wales for small holidays ( and we usually stay in local hotels and use local shops , restaurants and visit attractions . We do this 4/5 times in a typical year . We are now contemplating stopping our visits. As much as we love our small holidays we do not want to get fined by the camera traps that we will definitely fall for . Best of luck to the Welsh government….I am sure they know what they are doing .
“I am sure they know what they are doing”
Yes, it’s going to be a good income stream ( a stealth tax )
Oh not that again (sigh). Neither the Welsh Government nor Welsh local authorities get the revenue from speeding fines, it goes to the Westminster Treasury.
I can’t see Drakeford willingly giving anything to Westminster, he hates them so much-This is his baby!
20MPH SPEED LIMITS 24 hours a day …. WILL CREATE
MORE CONGESTION
MORE POLLUTION
MORE TAILGATING
MORE FRUSTRATION
And MORE CAPITALS
Just take them down, revolt
More fines
Yes and it then gets divvied back out again. If they don’t make money the projects and partnerships and speed course firms wouldn’t survive. And authoritarian career led politicians who don’t listen to us plebs wouldn’t look ‘brave’…
Surely the “tourist tax” would’ve stopped you visiting Wales and made you go to Cornwall instead?
Really?? Welsh Liebour know what they are doing, that will be a first for them.
Well you’ll all need to contemplate stopping visiting other places which have or are also bringing in 20mph limits.
From the 20splenty website they include
All of Scotland
Most of Lancashire and Cheshire
York and South Yorkshire
Herefordshire
Oxfordshire
Cambridgeshire
Bristol Bath Brighton
Cornwall
Presumably local hotels, shops etc in all these areas are now preparing for the loss of trade from any small holidays you and the other four families might have made to their areas.
Best of luck to you and the other four in finding non 20mph limit small holiday destinations.
You are right …I see the error in my ways . We should all be punished for wanting to spend locally .
https://www.business-live.co.uk/economic-development/welsh-economy-sees-biggest-contraction-26196095
‘I see the error in my ways’
Really, given the accompanying cause and effect fallacy.
In 2012 Bristol started its speed reduction scheme. The scheme was completed in 2015. Almost all residential roads are now 20 mph, including roads that are defacto ‘main roads’ through residential areas. In 2016 the new mayor ordered a review of the plan following a report from Bristol UWE that showed the lower speed limit had saved lives. Over that period it is estimated 32 lives have been saved and there has been a reduction of 88 serious injuries due to a reduction in accidents. The numbers walking and cycling has increased and now nearly 60% of school children walk… Read more »
I think i wll do the same
Spain introduced similar speed limits in 2019, has it’s economy falen off a cliff since then? Truthfully I have no idea although the statistics online suggest not. It would be useful to have articles translated from Spanish that might help to inform the debate. A economy reacts to different things in different ways, fewer accidents might mean more people reaching their economic potential (ie not being killed or seriously injured). It might mean less serious damage to vehicles and lower insurance costs.Maybe less congestion which is the real time killer when travelling. I am sure there will be reviews and… Read more »
I don’t want to go 20mph even if it saves a human or not
Does that mean you do not adhere to the 20mph speed limit where there are speed bumps at present?
So your own selfishness is more important to you than the life of another person? Nice.
But Barry, that link to lower mortality is not proven…. there is evidence, however, that driving in power gears at lower speeds increases pollution, and therfore lead to more deaths related those associated fators, thaniv3s saved by hitting a pedestrian at 20….
So it is fuel efficiency that concerns you? Very well – you won’t object to the speed limit on motorways, dual carriageways and A roads being REDUCED to 55mph. After all that is the most fuel-efficient driving speed for the average car.
Good point.
We should regard all those commenting here who use fuel efficiency and pollution as reasons against a 20mph limit ipso facto supporters of reducing the national speed limit to 55mph.
Better that than to assume hypocrisy or faulty logic on their part!
So why aren’t EV’s exempt from the 50mph motorway speed limits then?
You’re a sad and self-centred individual. It also significantly reduces traffic if you need a personal gain to support something.
It is air quality not safety, learn why this is happening at least
What If we have a closed road with just enough room for 2 way traffic travelling at 20 mph.and an emergency ambulance is coming along with no way to get through because of a backlog of 20 mph vehicles is that patient going to die .on your heads you ruleamakers
And what if the exact same road had a 30mph speed limit – the exact same problem, no way for the ambulance to get through because of the backlog of 30mph traffic. And what if the exact same road had a 40mph speed limit – the exact same problem, no way for the ambulance to get through because of the backlog of 40mph traffic. And what if the exact same road had a 50mph speed limit….
I wouldn’t be surprised if some drivers deliberately block emergency vehicles in some idiotic attempt to prove a point.
Andy reeves
Forgive me if I’m missing the point when Swansea’s Kingsway was mentioned – but that road is already 20mph?
Please don’t tempt the council to change that road again, we had people dying last time…
The Labour Council had to change it, after the Lib Dem Council’s bendy bus fiasco.
Buses are just the tip of the iceberg. As usual the Muppet show in Cardiff have done no proper research into this policy. Evidence based on old data, estimates and maybe’s. It’s “estimated” that this policy will cost £32million and save £100 million in the first year and save up to 6 lives. That sounds great. Well let’s wait and see about those figures. Let’s see how much your, plumber, electrician, gardener, handyman, delivery driver and taxi driver to name but a few put their prices up because of the extra travel time, I’m self employed and I know I’ll… Read more »
Yes the policy is legally enforceable, that is why it is referred to as a law.
Hi Barry,
I expect it is a legal limit, but I wouldn’t make an absolute statement like yours without supporting it with a reference. Please include a reference or it may just be opinions.
The question should be why do we tolerate these stupid ideas ? We replace policemen with ramps of blacktop…such is the stupidity of these suicide so called politicians.
They know the idea is flawed. They are chancing it . If they were confident the idea would work they would have introduced the change before the busy visitor( money making season for local businesses) season in July/August. Instead they are introducing from September and the real economic impact will come next year when visitor numbers dwindle . That combined with high interest rates and cost of living rises will put local businesses under a lot of pressure.
That’s odd, because buses and deliveries often sat in queues at much lower speeds. It used to take me an hr on a bus to do 20 miles into Cardiff from the vale of glam. The reduced speed on a470 now adds a slither to time to get into Cardiff. Some desperate wannabe Jeremy Clarkson have no sense of reality. Just computer simulations on finance. They don’t always ring true in reality.
The Welsh government haven’t gone about this is in the right way at all. Bus passenger numbers haven’t returned to pre Covid numbers because bus services haven’t returned to pre Covid timetables. I travel to work in Chester on a service that originates in Mold. The service is currently one bus per hour and is very unreliable. I work an eight hour day and am quite often out of the house for eleven hours for what is an eleven minute journey by car. If I had the money for a car I wouldn’t bother with the bus. Get the infrastructure… Read more »
The Welsh Arsembly doesn’t do cause-and-effect or joined-up thinking. It’s dogma trumping common sense in most of their policies.
It’s called the Senedd.
Based on its overall incompetence, capacity to waste money and atrocious record in terms of creating prosperity for Welsh people, “Muppet Show” would be far more suitable.
Ministers on 80k plus have not a clue i don’t want this no matter what the justification idiots have lost my vote
The ridiculous thing is the reasons used to implement this are unsound. There death rates for 4-19 year olds on the roads are in single figures. More people in this age group commit suicide each year. So if its death rates, focus on suicide with the money. Just look at ONS statistics! Even environmentally, driving around in a lower gear negates any benefit re pollution. In fact could well be worse, as cars are not fully warmed up to optimum temperatures.
My car 30 mph runs at 12000 rpm at 20mphI must use 2nd gear which revs at 16000 rpm. Increase in traffic fumes.
Have you tried third gear?
Except the average speed in urban areas with 30zones is 17mph. The number of lights and turns means bring the speed limit to 20 adds less than a minute or so to journeys throughout the city. When a car at 20 stops fully, the car at 30 is still going at 24mph. It’s also about injuries, all of which are very expensive. It also reduces traffic as people aren’t racing 100m to the next set of lights, which in turn actually reduces pollution.
Rev limit in a Honda Civic Type R (FD2) – 8600-rpm – you must have blasted into space 🙂
More likely 1200 and 1600 rpm
90% of drivers don’t comply with a 30mph anyway, and won’t comply with a 20mph limit, unless you have a speed camera every 200 yards , how are the going to police it. The police ? They don’t have enough resources to police their current commitments as it is .
So let’s not bother with speed limits at all. Let everyone drive as fast as they like and to hell with the consequences.
And where did you get the figure of 90% of drivers not complying with the 30mph limit?
You do anyway
The Welsh govt seems hell-bent on forcing people out of their cars, but provides no alternatives. Make the buses and the trains work FIRST, then people will naturally want to use them, and they will also be a viable alternative to car travel. However the current mess means that people will continue to drive, but now it will be even more miserable and expensive. Everyone I know who has used a train in the last 12 months has had the journey delayed in some way (including myself). Oh but it is ok because it’s easy to get around Cardiff without… Read more »
I would disagree that it’s easy to get around Cardiff without a car.
Well they actually are building the South Wales Metro, which is almost complete in most mainline areas which is what’s causing the temporary delays, so they are providing alternatives. You can’t have your cake and eat it. More could be done sure, but you’re just being a naysayer now.
We moved to Wales several years ago- if we’d known that the. various legislations that are coming into force, including the 20 mph speed limit, we would have stayed across the border . If we had enforcement of the current speed limits there would be no need for this new law. I witnessed someone doing 42 mph in a 30 limit last week( as measured by a roadside monitor)- surely this is what needs to be tackled?
” if we’d known that the. various legislations that are coming into force, ….., we would have stayed across the border .
There’s more and different legislation to come.
Maybe it would have been useful and possibly saved you a trip if an up to date edition of Encyclopaedia Britannica had been consulted.
The 1888 entry “For Wales see England” is no longer accurate!
This is all just words, unless you present actual figures on how fast buses are going right now in the real world, on routes that will have a lowered speed limit, and how many journeys would actually be constrained by the new limit and how many where the bus rarely makes it over 20mph anyway in an urban setting.
A bus doing 30mph on a residential road would be intimidating to other road users and pedestrians to say the least.
Also as bus stops are relatively close together accelerating a vehicle of several tonnes from stationary to 30mph and back to zero for the next bus stop repeatedly could quite likely use more fuel and create more pollution than accelerating to a max of 20mph regardless of what gears were used.
The solution: more bypasses…
but if everywhere gets bypassed, you won’t be able to get anywhere using the roads
Don’t look for any sense, that left the building in 2016…case in point Llanbedr from 30 sign to 30 sign a mile…
No sorry I’m still getting my head round the fact that the Rishi government and the media is helping the Sunak family to claim a 200 million tax rebate via a trade deal with India…that’s my take on the plot of the next Nadine Dorries novel…
The major consideration is the £36 million the scheme is going to cost, with no actual 100% proven benefits, when the Welsh NHS is in a state of total collapse in most Health areas. There is just ONE dermatology Doctor for the whole of the West area of Betsi Cadwaldwr and no waiting list appointments are being dealt with, as the one Doctor is fully committed addressing the most URGENT of cases. The current wait for a basal cell carcinoma excision is TWO years. In my opinion Mark Drakeford should be ashamed of himself. His spending of £36 million on… Read more »
The we could spend the money on the NHS, or GIG in Cymru is the common canard trotted out by anyone who disagrees with spending decisions regardless of what the money is being spent on. For example we in Cymru we are regularly subjected to – money spent on bilingual forms, signs, staff etc etc would be better spent on the GIG by those with negative feelings towards Cymraeg. Society has more needs, wants and expectations than for every £ to be spent on healthcare. The GIG budget for this year is £ 20 billion. The £36 million doesn’t get… Read more »
Cardiff bus are an absolute disaster. Unreliable, expensive and infrequent. Impossible to work, shop and socialise using the bus service so a car is essential. 20mph is likely to cause more traffic jams, more use of the brakes and consequently more pollution. Well done Drakeford.
“more use of the brakes and consequently more pollution.”
Calculating the end sum regarding fuel used, pollution caused, timings etc are complex but a lot of what the anti 20mph lobby are pushing often works against their arguments. For instance.
More use of a the brakes are needed to reduce a car’s speed from 30mph than to reduce it’s speed from 20mph.
So consequently less pollution (from brake use) with a 20mph limit.
So based on braking and pollution that would mean a – “Well done Drakeford”!
The effect of not reducing speed in buit up areas is human lives. People who put a price on human lives have a lot to answer for. Stop making capital out of things that WILL save lives!
Of course there is a price on lives, my life is not as valuable as a child’s and every war puts a cost on lives, does the Welsh Gov pay any cost for drugs than can save lives> NO you’re living in a dream world
Welsh Government should be ashamed
Yes but for what? There’s more than one possibility.
As GCSE Maths exam papers say.
‘You must show all your working out.’
I haven’t caught a bus for 40 years, why would I? The only time I used a train was for work on the Bristol Paddington route, and likewise work paid for planes from Bristol to Schipol and Edinburgh. 20mph in cities with ULEZ zones is immaterial to me, I will never visit them. EV’s are not exempt from the speed limits described as being there to reduce pollution, so that logic has gone out of the window. I use mail order to get anything now, so the retail shops don’t get my money any more, nor do the car parking… Read more »
Why are you so obsessed with EVs being exempt from speed limits?
Yet another reason not to go to wales. I would say it’s the most unpleasent place you could not want to visit in the western world.
Well good riddance to you.
Labour Governments always ruin business and when business are ruined jobs follow
Get Labour out before it’s to late
Who are the dumb b’ds who vote labour because this is the sort of stupid ideas they will keep coming up with!
Let’s all go green and travel in second gear and push out mutch more pollution, this welsh government makes me sick, Labour have so mutch power in Wales they ignore the wishes of the people it’s time to vote them out give them a shock.i don’t care who gets in but vote this lot out
Wales takes more from the UK economy than contribute to it ….not very sure of accurate figures but its close to 1.25 for every £1 generated . Quite sad really …the pandemic has created a local tourism boom …its probably short to medium term . Rather than put their heads together and see how to use this to their advantage …. for example use increased revenues to build more infrastructure and promote local businesses and entrepreneurs. Also the smaller towns could attract young remote workers who are usually in high paying jobs and businesses and are in the upper spectrum… Read more »
This can’t possibly be a good move. I was stuck behind 3 vehicles in one of the new 20mph zones. By the time id got to the end of the village (about 2 miles long) there was a very long train of vehicles behind me. Once more, a gentleman waiting to cross the road with his dog was clearly getting annoyed. The omisions from the all the bumper to bumper cars does not disperse as quick and chances are if you’ve got your car window down as I had, those omissions enter the car, do I now have to drive… Read more »
By the number of comments these articles generate Tories must think 20mph limits as the best donkey to mount in the run up to the next general election derby.
Everything the Tory government is responsible for is either on stop or going backwards so no-one should be surprised. There’s an obvious anti-devolution sentiment going on with this issue also.
Desperation by the Conservative and Unionist Party aka Never knowingly on the right side of History Party.
All the criticism from people about 20 M P H speed limit i do not like it either but lets get facts there are councils in England both Tory and Labour have introduced them the former Mayor of Bristol on G M T V this morning 20 mph was introduced there in 2010 i just googled it and its True the tory press making a mountain out of this its been and going on in Jolly old England as well
Reagardless of where it’s happening, it’s a joke and most drivers will agree. 20mph infront of a school I agree with. A good driver will read the road and slow down at any potential hazzard. And If you catch a bus what about the timetables, they’ll need changing to reflect the extra journey time, chances are you’d have to catch an earlier bus and you’d be kicking the kids out earlier in the mornings too. Sorry but it’s NOT a good thing!
Have you seen many buses doing 30mph down residential roads or high streets?
This is all a bit of a storm in a teacup to me.
The 20mph limit works well in London..
It wont make any difference as you can still drive at higher speeds on a motorway or a road
I’ve just received the leaflet! On it’s cover, a cartoon sketch of the idealists little bubble around their own house; one car and six pedestrians, a couple chatting on a street corner (obstructing the view) one assisting a person in a wheel chair. all suggest that these people will all be able to travel about town much more safely, with even less responsibility for learning safe behaviour and consideration, after all, it’s the cars driving on roads which make it so dangerous for them isn’t it? Well that’s what the welsh government think about the intelligence of their people. What’s… Read more »
The government continues to show contempt for people. The enforced 20mph speed limit is another example, there are areas that simply do not require a reduced speed, but the Gov could have simply asked people their views and acted on that eg I believe most people would have agreed with certain areas having a 20mph limit. Where I live we have a wide open area between fields with the 20mph limit that is simply not required. Last week our postman got 3 points for doing 21mph. Yet nearby, there is a very small road through a nature reserve which, lots… Read more »