The Welshman central to Labour’s economic hopes

Jonathan Edwards

In Budget week the focus will inevitably fall on Chancellor Rachel Reeves and her first major fiscal statement.

While Reeves is by far the most important political figure when it comes to the economy in UK politics, Torfaen MP Nick Thomas-Symonds is going to be a pivotal figure in this Parliament if Labour are to achieve their ambitions.

This is not because Thomas-Symonds has the title of Paymaster General, as when I looked on the UK Government website that specific role had no responsibility. He has however been given the gigantic job of Minister for EU Relations and specifically in re-setting the fractured relationship following Brexit.

Following a meeting with his EU counterpart Maros Sefcovic, Thomas-Symonds said: “Our government is committed to resetting the relationship with the European Union, to strengthen ties, reinforce our security and tackle barriers to trade.”

The key bit being the last three words.

Economic disaster

Brexit has been an unmitigated economic disaster. The latest Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts published in March estimated the year on year hit at 4% of GDP. My maths puts that in a range of between £150bn to £110bn lost every year in economic value. Exports and imports had fallen by 15%, and all the trade deals signed by the last UK Government had no impact as they effectively re-signed deals previously negotiated by the EU.

The basics of this are that living standards have stagnated, inflationary pressures have been more acute on goods and services, and tax receipts available for the Treasury are less than they should have been, impacting on the money available for investment in public services.

If we needed reminding of the extra trade barriers caused by Brexit, this week the FPC (Fresh Produce Consortium) and the HTA (Horticultural Trade Association) wrote a joint letter to the Chancellor complaining that new import checks were leading to significant delays and increased costs of up to 10% (inevitably passed onto consumers).

The joint letter reads: “This situation has led to reduced consumer choice, strained business relationships, a tarnished UK business reputation, diminished confidence in border processes, compromised food security, and setbacks in achieving our environmental targets.”

Import checks

To give a practical example, I was speaking to my local florist the other day in Tycroes and she said that whereas she was pre the new import checks guaranteed a delivery on the button every day, she had no idea when her order of produce would arrive these days. Most flowers we see in the UK are imported from Holland. It made the planning of her business nearly impossible.

Labour will be judged not only on whether it can return economic growth to some semblance of normality, but critically on whether people feel better off. While we are very early in this Parliament, the political calendar proceeds at rapid speed, not to mention the Senedd and Scottish Parliament elections 18 months away.

Some (including myself) since the signing of the final Brexit deal (Trade and Cooperation Agreement) have called for the UK to fully reintegrate with the European Union economic frameworks, partly as my position following the 2016 Referendum was that the only acceptable Brexit was one that kept the UK within the EU Single Market and Customs Union.

Exceptionalism

I am not convinced how practical that position is in reality as obviously it takes a certain degree of exceptionalism to believe that the EU is just going to say, “yes please come back let bygones be bygones.” The UK has little goodwill in the bank in Brussels and European capitals; it is going to have to rebuild trust.

A key date to watch out for is the full review of the current Trade and Cooperation Agreement due to be finalised in January 2026. If Thomas-Symonds can achieve his objective of minimising trade barriers it would provide the foundation for Labour’s next UK election campaign as it would inevitably boost economic performance. Strategically it would also start creating the foundations that would enable a second term Labour government to take the UK back to where it belongs – at the heart of Europe.

A lot rests on the shoulders of the MP for Torfaen.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East & Dinefwr 2010-2024