Trump wins – is it time to panic in Wales?

Jonathan Edwards

A week after the US elections, the world seems a very different place already.

I must admit I don’t normally get that engrossed in US elections. I never understood why it seemed to me to get more coverage than domestic elections in the UK media – certainly far more attention than our national election here in Wales.

Because the Democrats and Republicans have traditionally pursued a triangulation political strategy I couldn’t tell the difference between each party. My confusion was further exacerbated after spending time in Washington with both Democrats and Republicans.

It seemed to me that the political divide was based on what tribe you associated yourself with as opposed to any meaningful policy differences.

The rise of Trump and his Make America Great Again movement has changed all this.

Living standards

What is clear is that the progressive side of politics has failed to react to the forces that right wing populism is mobilising. Namely that living standards are plummeting and the wealth divide between the rich and the poor is increasing.

The same happened here with Brexit, where those on the left politically, (apart from the Eurosceptic left) found themselves arguing for the status quo which many people felt was failing them.

This was despite spending the previous years campaigning against the treatment of the EU of Member States such as Greece with imposed super austerity following the financial crash of 2008; or trying to undermine the proposed Trade Agreement between the EU and US; and basically, arguing that the EU was a neo liberal elitist project.

Before I am accused of hypocrisy, I continue to argue that the UK Government’s best bet considering where we are, would be to realign with the European economic frameworks.

However, I do so as progressive forces have failed to compose a compelling alternative economic narrative since the Great Financial Crash of 2008.

Reduced living standards for a decade and a half; uncertain employment conditions; intergenerational wealth imbalance; the UK’s grotesque geographical wealth imbalances; the demise of the middle class with society split into very high earners or those receiving minimum wage, to name just a few factors, are leading to an age of rage.

The Guardian had an interesting article this week about how millennials can’t afford a mid-life crisis. That says it all.

Fury

Social media has provided the perfect medium for energising the fury – as a technology it inherently polarises.

Politics has moved from the art of triangulation and compromise to motivating your base. Both left and right are primarily interested in mobilising social media mobs.

The political left has long forgotten about its primary purpose: economic justice.

Instead, it comforts itself on identity issues.

All are noble causes. However, a political activist class has developed on the left that has little understanding of how to redress the economic imbalances in society.

The right responds to the identity politics of the left by mobilising far more powerful culture war strategies which motivate a wider group of people. I have come to the conclusion that the left of today is playing into the hands of the far right.

Parallel universes

The politics of the left has become all about purity on various issues. Spend some time in a pub in the Welsh valleys and then go to a Labour or Plaid Cymru conference and they are parallel universes.

When I was involved in politics, I was delighted that the average person who voted for me never read the party manifesto I was standing on. Not because I didn’t believe in the manifesto: it was just that those who were voting had a very different view on the world.

What has happened in the US could well come here to Wales if progressive forces don’t get their act together.

Trickledown economics from Cardiff Bay has failed – it hasn’t even got as far as Barry, let alone the wilds of the west or the north.

If the Welsh Government believes it lacks the fiscal powers to make a difference, it must demand them from Westminster.

I fear a great reckoning could well come very soon, if not in 2026, then 2030 looks completely frightening about what we might face.

Last week’s Survation poll which put Reform in third, only 10 points behind Labour, should send shivers down the spines of all sitting Senedd Members.

If the US election is anything to go by, the polls underestimated the support of the populist right.

Farage

We haven’t had Farage touring the Welsh valleys yet. He understands the rust belt politics employed by Trump better than anyone. There is a reason he launched the general election campaign in Merthyr.

If I was Andrew RT Davies or a Tory Senedd Member I would be in a state of complete panic. If Reform establish themselves in the polls ahead of the Conservatives, Tory support will collapse.

This further indicates that Reform has the potential to move beyond the 20% rating they enjoy in this poll. Aping Reform for the Tories isn’t working, so what’s Plan B?

Plaid Cymru is in full retreat to its traditional Welsh speaking rural hinterland. It has got absolutely nothing to say or anyone who can perform the task of speaking for the most populous parts of our country. Don’t get me wrong. I rate Delyth Jewell and Heledd Fychan highly, but the weakness of the Welsh media landscape will never allow them to develop into household political brands of their own to face down the challenge before us, Farage will have Facebook and X on tap.

Worryingly for Plaid, the general election results in Wales would indicate that Reform is firmly established as the challenger to Labour outside the ‘Fro Gymraeg’ already.

Furthermore, what was a Plaid Cymru – Labour stitch up with the new Senedd voting system could play right into the hands of Reform. The political incumbency built up by constituency members over the years will be of no value whatsoever come 2026 in a closed list system.

Conversely all Reform leaflets will have only one face on it.

If there is one crumb of comfort for the left of the political spectrum, the combined vote of Labour, Plaid and the Greens continues to be over the 50% mark.

The danger they face is that they more than likely will spend the next 18 months taking chunks out of each other.

Collaboration

I see no hope of collaboration before 2026. Rhun ap Iorwerth has set himself up as an opponent of the Welsh Government in the name of political expediency. It worked for him last July in terms of seat numbers, so low are the expectations these days. It is probably the right strategy for the 2026 election.

However, if he wants the next election to be about change, how can Plaid Cymru credibly make that case?

I suspect the clarion calls of Mr Farage will be far more potent. And at the end of the day Plaid know they will have to work with Labour somehow after the election if matters play out as expected.

What’s clear is that progressive politicians are going to have to come up with much better than the naïve proposal for the truth police to govern politics.

Wake up for all our sakes, before it’s too late.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East & Dinefwr 2010-2024