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Opinion

Trump’s comeback and its implications for Wales: A wake-up call before the 2026 Senedd elections

07 Nov 2024 7 minute read
Nigel Farage (L) and Donald Trump. Picture by Gage Skidmore (CC BY-SA 2.0).

Franck Banza

Donald Trump’s dramatic return to the White House in a historic landslide victory against Kamala Harris has sparked discussions far beyond American borders.

With his successful appeal to a wide range of disillusioned and often disenfranchised voters, Trump’s comeback serves as a powerful signal for political dynamics worldwide, including in Wales.

His return to power underscores a global trend: a rising scepticism toward established political structures, and a growing appetite for parties that position themselves as champions of the “forgotten” people.

In Wales, the Reform Party stands as a stark example of this shift, gathering momentum and threatening to disrupt the political landscape at the Senedd elections in 2026.

This historic return to the White House demonstrates the growing popularity of populist figures who tap into the public’s frustrations and respond to real concerns—concerns that, too often, mainstream parties dismiss or stigmatise.

In both the United States and the UK, voices like Trump’s or Nigel Farage’s are routinely labelled as “racist,” “xenophobic,” “bigoted,” or even “fascist.”

However, these labels often backfire, increasing support for these leaders instead of diminishing it.

The response to these names isn’t limited to white or traditional conservative demographics; a significant number of minority voters—including Latinos, Arab-Americans, and even first- and second-generation immigrants—have shown support for populist stances on issues like illegal immigration and economic security.

This trend demonstrates that the concerns of working-class and middle-income citizens, regardless of ethnicity, are resonating across the board.

Alarm

In Wales, this pattern should sound an alarm. Recent polling and Brexit support suggest that frustration with political elites and distrust in existing systems is far from an isolated phenomenon. Many Welsh voters, including immigrants and people from culturally and ethnically diverse backgrounds, have expressed growing discontent with the way traditional political parties address—or fail to address—sensitive issues like illegal immigration, economic disparity, and rural hardship.

Welsh voters increasingly want pragmatic debates and solutions rather than divisive rhetoric or dismissive name-calling.

Ignoring these concerns, or refusing to address them through open and respectful debate, risks not only alienating voters but also undermining faith in the democratic process itself.

With Wales on the brink of a significant election in less than two years, Trump’s victory could be an indication of things to come.

The success of the Reform Party—a group that promises to shake up the political status quo by appealing directly to rural communities and average working people—is a phenomenon that mirrors Trump’s appeal in the U.S.

Their campaign, like Trump’s, is fuelled by frustration with career politicians and the increasing disconnect between the political elite and everyday people.

Trust

The recent changes in the Welsh electoral system, which has introduced a new party-list voting system that emphasises party over candidate, have only deepened these frustrations, weakening voters’ trust and making Reform’s outsider appeal stronger.

In recent years, we’ve seen political shifts that many find surprising, but in reality, they shouldn’t be.

Donald Trump’s re-election, the initial shock of Brexit, and the rise of parties like Reform in the UK all point to a recurring theme: people feel unheard on issues like immigration, the economy, and cost of living.

But instead of confronting these concerns head-on, too often we label them as fringe or extreme, shutting down discussion with name-calling rather than genuine debate.

Trump’s return to power, after a campaign focused heavily on controlling inflation and immigration, illustrates how deeply these issues resonate with voters.

Similarly, Reform’s popularity in recent UK elections and the party’s projected success in the upcoming Senedd election reveal a common thread: many citizens are frustrated with the lack of solutions from traditional parties and are willing to back alternatives that promise direct action.

Challenges

In Wales, we face a unique set of challenges—lost jobs, especially in industries like steel, and cuts in university funding, all set against the backdrop of a tough new budget from Labour that increases taxes on employers.

People feel the strain of rising costs and the fear of future layoffs, yet instead of addressing these fears directly, political leaders often dismiss them as reactionary or out of touch.

For many voters, the pressing issues around immigration, job security, and economic stability are not about racism or isolationism. They’re about survival, stability, and the promise of a better future.

If we don’t start treating these concerns as legitimate and pressing, rather than extreme, we risk further alienating large swaths of the electorate, paving the way for parties like Reform to make unexpected gains.

The upcoming Senedd election in 2026 could see a substantial shift if the mainstream parties fail to listen.

Welsh voters want job creation, especially in rural areas, support for innovation, and policies that empower our talented young people to take risks, start businesses, and learn from their efforts.

This new electoral system replaces the mixed First Past the Post (FPTP) and proportional representation (PR) system with a party-list-only system.

This shift means that voters will no longer select individual candidates but will instead vote for parties, which then allocate seats based on predetermined lists of candidates.

While the government argues that this will create a more proportionate and representative Senedd, critics contend that it undermines voters’ ability to choose specific representatives, leading to concerns about decreased political accountability.

Party loyalty

Professor Laura McAllister, a public policy expert, warns that this “closed list” system may erode trust in the electoral process. She notes that the new system risks rewarding party loyalty over candidate competence, creating a scenario where unqualified or unpopular individuals are prioritised simply because they align with party interests.

This approach could distance voters from their representatives, furthering public frustration with a political landscape that increasingly appears insular and unresponsive to local needs.

Therefore, Trump’s return to the White House should be seen as a wake-up call for Welsh politicians.

His victory showcases the impact of widespread disillusionment with traditional political elites and provides a clear parallel to the dynamics unfolding in Wales.

If Welsh politicians do not address the crises affecting the cost of living, loss of jobs, rural communities, restore trust in the political system, and engage with voters’ genuine concerns, they may find themselves ousted by a Reform Party that promises to do just that.

Yet, this political shift is also a golden opportunity for other parties like the Welsh Liberal Democrats to step in with a distinctive, progressive message that answers voters’ frustrations while steering clear of divisive tactics.

By focusing on real issues—economic empowerment, job creation, more devolved powers to Wales, immigration, comprehensive agricultural support, and responsible political reform—the Liberal Democrats could present themselves as the genuine alternative to both the establishment and the populist rise.

They could frame their policies around creating a more prosperous, inclusive Wales where liberal values of fairness, individual rights, and economic growth take centre stage.

Liberal principles

By championing changes that prioritise transparency, economic innovation, and community-based policy-making, the Liberal Democrats have the chance to offer voters a vision of Welsh prosperity grounded in liberal principles.

This strategy could allow them to capture the momentum of change, showing that liberal ideas can make Wales both prosperous and resilient in an increasingly polarised political climate.

As Wales approaches the 2026 Senedd election, the country stands at a crossroads. Politicians have a choice: either continue down a path that risks alienating a significant portion of the electorate or commit to meaningful changes that address the needs of Welsh citizens.

Let’s stop the cycle of surprise and regret. Let’s start engaging with people’s real concerns, whether about immigration, cost of living, or economic opportunity.

Name-calling and shutting down debate has never worked—and if it continues, we may find ourselves yet again facing an “unexpected” result in 2026. Instead, let’s commit to productive conversations that go beyond party lines and lead to real solutions.

Only then can we prevent history from repeating itself once more.

Franck Banza stood for the Lid Dems in Gower in the 2024 General election.


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S Duggan
S Duggan
7 days ago

It’s not uncommon for people to turn to these parties when times get tough. We’ve seen it through the ages. Trump and Farage are not the answer – their politics are divisive. We tend to find out the hard way, by then it’s too late – look at Johnson, for instance.

john dutton
john dutton
7 days ago
Reply to  S Duggan

So what do you think is the answer,
We have had the Tories and Liebour for decades, nothing changes with these two.

S Duggan
S Duggan
6 days ago
Reply to  john dutton

Indeed I did not give a solution. Though undoubtedly, it’ll be one of two – the fortune of people improves and they’ll no longer have need for populist rhetoric or the populist right will destroy everything – as in the 1940s.

Rob
Rob
6 days ago
Reply to  john dutton

Get rid of first past the post. Thats the voting system to forces us to pick between the lesser of 2 evils. Proportional representation accurately reflects how people vote and gives smaller (not necessarily extreme) parties as voice as well.

Jeff
Jeff
7 days ago

There is likely to be a large hit aimed at the next Welsh elections from Musks platform (basically a mini Trump now) and places like gb news (reform in all but name). Farage will no doubt be digging in the dirt to rake up hate and division with his ace in the hole at the Senedd, his doppelgänger in the Welsh Tory party. They don’t play nice, do we have the robustness to counter it? Don’t think so. Farage was gleeful in the news yesterday for the hate that is heading towards decent people in the US and further afield,… Read more »

John Ellis
John Ellis
7 days ago

Come the next Senedd election, especially perhaps in view of the change to a ‘closed party list’ method of electing members, it seems to me quite plausible that Reform UK will demonstrate quite a degree of electoral success. On July 4th in my new Westminster constituency – one of the ‘Clwyds’ – while Labour topped the poll with the Tory as runner-up, Reform came third and garnered pretty much double the votes that Plaid Cymru’s candidate received. And I suspect our area won’t be the only one to follow that trend. OK, much of an increased Reform vote will come… Read more »

Karl
Karl
7 days ago

It’s time for our politics not to bend towards Westminster or the U.S. When straight talking is not used, thats when populists seem to gain ground. If someone lies in a Parliament, call them so, not pick at the edges of the word. Fact check the lot of them. Trump is a huge warning, because unlike other fascists of the past, he has told them what he wants to do like get rid of elections and the constitution, while avoiding policy. He then makes up lies or echoes lies and always says “thats what others say” or something similar. He… Read more »

Dai Ponty
Dai Ponty
7 days ago

Trump is not just a threat to Wales but to the disunited Kingdom and the World there was a song in 1969 by Zager and Evans called in the year 2025 the words IN THE YEAR 2025 IF MAN IS STILL ALIVE IF WOMEN CAN SURVIVE the world just became a far more dangerous place with him

hdavies15
hdavies15
7 days ago
Reply to  Dai Ponty

2525, Dai, but never mind the point is made. The writer of this article said : “In Wales, this pattern should sound an alarm. Recent polling and Brexit support suggest that frustration with political elites and distrust in existing systems is far from an isolated phenomenon. Many Welsh voters, including immigrants and people from culturally and ethnically diverse backgrounds, have expressed growing discontent with the way traditional political parties address—or fail to address—sensitive issues like illegal immigration, economic disparity, and rural hardship.” Kind of sums it all up really. No point any of our established parties, including Plaid, waffling on… Read more »

includemeout
includemeout
7 days ago

Thing is, centrists said the same things after the first time Trump won. And after the Brexit referendum; and even, in a different way, after Corbyn’s near-win in 2017. There’s a pattern here. When an election goes the wrong way, moderates talk a lot about how ‘we’ need to start addressing the legitimate concerns of ordinary people. Then, when they realise they have no idea how to address those concerns, they fall back on the much easier approach of insulting their opponents and shutting down debate. Meanwhile they hope that some deus ex machina will come along to save them;… Read more »

Padi Phillips
Padi Phillips
7 days ago
Reply to  includemeout

The paradox here is that if Corbyn had won in 2017 it’s highly unlikely that we would be finding ourselves in the predicament we do now as his policies were directed at dealing with the very issues affecting people’s daily lives. Farage and Trump and their ilk are xenophobes and fascists, and it’s important to call them out on these things, but on it’s own it would be a futile activity. I think immigration is largely a red herring and while I understand the context, it’s use by the far right is precisely because it’s an emotive issue that they… Read more »

hdavies15
hdavies15
7 days ago
Reply to  Padi Phillips

“….someone at long last listening to them. “ Not listening to them, but they heard the cries of frustration and decided that they could be used to advantage. That’s why Farage et al will do well for a while here in Wales, create a troublesome minority, but will fail abysmally to create lasting working solutions and will fade away. Lots of noise, no worthwhile actions.

Ernie The Smallholder
Ernie The Smallholder
6 days ago
Reply to  hdavies15

PLAID CYMRU has 18 months until the next Senedd election. We must waste no time, we need to visit every household in the whole of Wales. We need a regular colour leaflet to be delivered to every household explaining how outsiders such as Farage have no place in Wales and only the party of Wales, with policies made in Wales can be the only solution to the problems experienced here in Wales. We cannot leave it to Welsh Labour, they are so out of touch and now have bosses to please in the neighbouring country. I thank the author for… Read more »

Padi Phillips
Padi Phillips
6 days ago
Reply to  hdavies15

Thank you, I should have added a note to make it clear that the ‘listening’ was apparent, but not real. Of course they would deliver nothing, but that makes it even more important that people in marginalised communities see tangible improvements pretty quickly and at any rate a long time before the Senedd elections in 2026.

hdavies15
hdavies15
6 days ago
Reply to  Padi Phillips

There are too many politicians out there going through the motions of “listening”. Even the hearing is modified with meaning distorted to suit the “message”. That lead up to 2026 will be very “interesting” as it presents splendid opportunities for motivating the near 50% that don’t turn out historically. Getting a segment of those to cast a vote would be a major step forward especially if the upturn was most noticeable in the marginalised areas. We shall see.

Margaret Helen Parish
Margaret Helen Parish
7 days ago

Welsh & English politicians have distanced themselves from the people whom they should serve? Then comes along another party like Reform who have policies that make sense to people…then get derided when supported by over 4 million voters, and nearly gained Llanelli. The answer is so simple, people want to work, have an holiday, save for their old age and see their children have a good education and looked after when ill!!! What is wrong with those BASIC principles? While at the same time stop immigration that is now changing this country…has the WEF wants supported by a Welsh Government… Read more »

Margaret Helen Parish
Margaret Helen Parish
7 days ago

Cannot understand what you would disagree with?

Jeff
Jeff
7 days ago

What impact is immigration having that you see?

Reform will never deliver what you wish.

Alwyn
Alwyn
7 days ago

The ‘Closed list’ method of election is one that was imposed on Plaid by Labour as a condition of the Co-opposition agreement that provided a decision to increase the size of the Senedd from 60 to 92. For some strange reason, Labour love this, even though it will be even more harmful to them than STV, PlaId’s choice. It will result in total vote return-off and deny people’s choice – but favour Labour’s ‘insiders’

Y Cymro
Y Cymro
6 days ago

I listened to LBC recently and the topic was the US election and Donald. Trump. The callers were largely from England who said how they overjoyed they were that Donald Trump was reelection. But those misguided callers forget that any trade deal arranged with the US & UK would involve us buying hormone & steroid
packed meat products and that Trump has stated he would put 10% tariffs on British & Welsh produce.

Last edited 6 days ago by Y Cymro
Merch o Wynedd
Merch o Wynedd
6 days ago

Not sure any party can further erode trust in the political process. I have always voted but I’m already thinking that I shan’t bother with the closed list system. And if they all still say that men can become women just because they say so then I definitely won’t vote. At least the SNP and English Labour are beginning to realise that mammals can’t change sex

Dr John Ball
Dr John Ball
5 days ago

I’ve just realised who the writer is -ask him how much Welsh there was in his election address.

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