Welsh Labour is in trouble – but it would be a mistake to write off its election chances in 2026

Martin Shipton

In terms of Welsh politics, the inescapable fact is that 2025 will be all about 2026.

The year that has just begun has no scheduled elections, at Westminster, Senedd or council level.

All the parties are focussing nervously on the Senedd election that will take place in May 2026.

Based partly on the new closed list PR electoral system and partly on the rapidly acquired unpopularity of Labour since the general election six months ago, a narrative has developed that there could be a change of government in Cardiff Bay.

Social media is awash with postings from individuals who appear convinced that Labour will be swept from power. Political commentators – not excluding myself – have been talking that up as a possibility.

But while the new electoral system makes it difficult for Labour to achieve the near-majorities it has taken for granted at the Senedd throughout its existence, it is equally true to say that no other party is in a position to single-handedly steal Labour’s mantle. The likelihood is that after the 2026 election we shall enter a new phase of enforced co-operation between, most likely, two parties.

‘Lazy assumption’

Alun Davies, the Labour MS for Blaenau Gwent, isn’t buying what is rapidly becoming the conventional view of what is likely to happen. He said: “I never think it’s a good idea to predict 18 months ahead of an election what the result is going to be. There’s a lazy assumption spreading that Labour will be pushed into third place by Plaid Cymru and Reform, and that there’s nothing Labour can do to stop that.

“I actually think it likely that the extra money coming to Wales as a result of increased spending in England will deliver improvements to NHS waiting times and people will notice the difference.

“I also think it’s wrong to write off the Welsh Conservatives, as if they are bound to be eclipsed by Reform. They’ve just elected a new leader in Darren Millar who is intelligent, articulate and a strategic thinker – and someone who genuinely seems to believe he could become First Minister in 2026.

“So far as Reform is concerned, it’s possible that something could happen to fragment their support. When seven members of UKIP were elected in 2016, it didn’t take long for their group to fall apart.”

Davies is clearly putting a positive gloss on his expectations from a partisan perspective, but it would be wrong to assume that Labour is necessarily heading for a period out of government. While it doesn’t have as many grassroots activists as it once did, and some local branches have been hollowed out, the other parties are in the same position, if not worse.

Turning things around

I’m not, however, as optimistic as Davies is about his party’s chances of turning things round sufficiently to make an impact before May 2026. There continue to be regular stories about patients waiting horrendously long for operations and for ambulances. How much of an impact the extra money for the health service will have in terms of delivery and public perception remains to be seen. The fact is that the NHS is short of beds, staff and equipment. Fixing it will take time that Eluned Morgan doesn’t have much of to rescue her party’s credibility.

We also know that despite the uplift in funding announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in her autumn Budget, more cuts are on the way, with UK Government departments being asked to make what are euphemistically referred to as “efficiency savings” that could lead to huge job losses in the public sector.

An additional consideration is that once disillusionment spreads among the electorate, it’s difficult to reverse. Even if hospital waiting times are cut, many won’t experience any personal benefit for themselves or their families. Creating a “feel good” factor for people who are inured to feelings of negativity towards whoever may be in power is a serious challenge.

Although the focus will be on what happens in 2026, the importance of candidate selection in 2025 cannot be overestimated. The justification for increasing the number of Senedd Members from 60 to 96 was that having extra politicians would necessarily improve the quality of decision making, and by extension the efficient delivery of public services. The most frequently quoted potential improvement was the scrutiny of government proposals and decisions.

Scrutiny

If the performance of Wales in the main policy areas of health, education and the economy is considered to be poor – as many would see it, with statistics backing their case – one can only conclude that the quality of scrutiny during the Senedd’s existence has either been poor or has made no impact.

On what basis can it be argued that more MSs will lead to better outcomes? It seems to me that two huge assumptions are being made, neither of which support such a conclusion. One is that increasing the number of MSs will in itself improve the calibre of those elected. The other is that having a more diverse Senedd will also necessarily lead to higher quality decision making.

There is no guarantee that the extra MSs will have greater analytical, and thus scrutiny, skills than those who currently hold seats. Equally, while it may be desirable to have a more diverse Senedd in terms of those elected, being there as a representative of a particular section of society by no means guarantees that your parliamentary contributions will be superior, or even as good as, those of someone else.

Individuals must be judged on their personal merits, not on whether they satisfy some theoretical quota that wrongly conflates quality with identity.

It follows that parties must be scrupulous in selecting their candidates.

We want MSs who, while broadly supportive of their parties, are intelligent enough, independently-minded enough and confident enough to make a positive contribution. We certainly don’t want MSs who suck up to their party’s leadership and post propagandist sound bites on social media together with photographs of themselves delivering leaflets in suburbia to give the impression of useful engagement.

A further point on the issue of candidate selection is that it seems likely that incumbent MSs will have the best chance of being placed at the top of their party’s local list.

Failure

On the one hand, it could be argued that it is reasonable to give preferential treatment to those with experience. But on the other hand, giving sitting MSs the best chance of being elected for another term could be said to reward past failure that expanding the Senedd was meant to overcome.

The Welsh Government’s relationship with the UK Government will also be an important dynamic to monitor. Eluned Morgan has played up the benefit of having two Labour governments at each end of the M4. Yet on issues like persuading Keir Starmer to redesignate HS2 as an “England only” project, so Wales can receive substantial consequential payments, the First Minister – who claims she is constantly nagging him on the subject – has proved singularly ineffectual.

While 2025 will, then, be a strange year in which thoughts will be on the year that follows, I have no doubt there will be a host of unexpected events to write about.