What It Says On The Tin

Ben Wildsmith 

After capitalism died in 2008, there has been a sense of things winding down in the UK. We have become used to decline as the coiled spring of our economy has unwound into inertia.

The entropic disintegration of commerce, experienced as moribund high streets, limited social mobility, and widening inequality, seems like a slow, inexorable expiration.

Paradoxically, however, the political expression of this condition is a panicky, over-energised form of chaos whereby everything but the kitchen sink is thrown at endemic problems by a succession of government witch doctors, each blaming their predecessor for our ills.

As real life has slowed down into disrepair, politics has accelerated into mania.

As politicians remake their offers more and more frequently, they are drifting away from the recognisable tenets by which voters recognise their parties.

The status quo

The Conservative Party, as its name suggests, prospered by standing for the status quo. While it had plenty of room to vary its economics between, for instance, Margaret Thatcher’s laissez-faire ambitions and the more statist approach of Ted Heath, the organisation’s point was to maintain the institutions and traditional hierarchy of the country.

We now find it lobbing incendiary devices at everything from the judiciary to the RNLI as it attempts to rebrand itself as an insurgent force. Its current direction of travel could see it opposing the monarchy if it seems there are votes to be had.

Labour, meanwhile, has become the defender of orthodoxy. A party which was conceived to direct the economy towards benefiting the workforce now treats the concept of taxing the rich as anathema.

Keir Starmer’s ‘changed’ party has changed only in the sense that it now promises not to frighten the horses.

As the bond markets turn the screw on Rachel Reeves her first thought is not to tax back the billions accrued by the wealthy during Covid, but to cut disability benefits instead.

And they looked from pig to man…

Historical principals

The problem, politically, with parties unmooring themselves from their traditional purposes is that a lot of the electorate don’t realise it’s happened. Loyal supporters who turn out at every election but don’t follow politics closely do so on the reasonable assumption that their party will adhere to historical principles.

You might, for instance, end up with a Blairite Labour government or a Corbynite one but it will be recognisably Labour and with priorities that you share.

You do not expect to vote Labour and end up with a government that enforces austerity on the poor as its first resort.

We accept that Diet Coke won’t taste the same as the real thing, but you’d take it back if you opened the can to find cottage cheese.

All discussion of party politics nowadays circles round to Reform UK and the threat they pose to both traditional main parties. It is that threat which caused the Conservatives to abandon respectability in favour of populism. This has left many traditional Tory voters homeless, and their decision to sit out the last election was catastrophic for the party.

So, thus far Reform UK’s rise has been of benefit to Labour, which won a slew of seats in which the right-of-centre vote was split. Yesterday, however, Reform UK  in Wales sent up a flare which should be ringing alarm bells from the Senedd to Downing Street.

The party’s spokesman for Wales, Oliver Lewis, told the BBC that the party will not be campaigning on immigration as a core issue at the Senedd election. Instead, he insisted that they will be prioritising ‘failing institutions.’

Pivot

This comes as commentators have observed a leftward turn by the party’s leader, Nigel Farage. Indeed, it is this perceived pivot that is assumed to have led to Elon Musk’s disavowal of Farage, and also the resignation of Reform UK councillors in England this week.

Since the 1980s, Labour has positioned intersectionality at least as prominently in its ideological offering as redistribution of wealth. Whilst its Marxist-leaning economics have faded away under successive leaders, it has retained a commitment to identity-based causes, and these have come to define public perception of the party.

Reform UK’s position on immigration is a fixed element in how the public sees the party. It doesn’t have to campaign on the issue anymore because voters who care about that issue already know that Farage & Co. are well to the right in that regard.

Having hoovered up so many Tory votes already, that allows Reform UK to be quiet on the potentially disruptive issue of immigration and go after disaffected Labour voters as well.

We are facing a through-the-looking-glass scenario of Labour defending austerity, the Tories posing as anti-establishment, and Reform UK campaigning from the economic left.

With national policies like raising the income tax threshold to 20,000 Reform UK can appeal to the sentiments people remember the Labour Party representing.

In Wales, this is territory that Plaid Cymru have repeatedly tried to occupy. To barge Reform UK off their turf will require focused messaging and ruthless local operations on the ground.

Reform UK currently lack political structure, so old-fashioned door knocking and a comprehensive grasp of local concerns are Plaid’s keys to success.

Above all else, voters crave a government that does what it says on the tin.