Where is Welsh independence?
Evan Thomas
Wales has been through it recently. Three first ministers this year alone, multiple political scandals and a historic general election to top it off.
Throughout all the commotion, I’ve noticed a distinct gap in the Welsh political narrative regarding independence.
Where is it?
Far from being a crucial policy ground for contestation during the election, independence and structural reform assumed the passenger’s seat and became almost a by-product of other considerations.
This is not great news. If Welsh Labour’s mishaps and Reform’s insurgence were to continue, Wales could come out of the next Senedd elections in 2026, perhaps unintentionally, with significant representation from a party that are staunchly opposed to devolution.
Whatever your opinion on the matter may be, it is paramount that awareness of such complications is brought to the foreground of the public debate.
All forms of politics flow from the foundation of the structural makeup of our country, not the other way around.
A party’s position on this topic should be the starting point for us voters, not an accepted belief based on other premises, such as immigration or the economy.
So where has independence gone?
Desirable?
According to Redfield and Wilton Strategies research, 55% of 18 to 24-year-olds, and 52% of 25 to 34-year-olds, would vote in favour of Welsh independence. Although these are the figures that don’t include respondents who “don’t know” what way they would vote in the situation, they do represent a major development for the current and future Welsh political landscape.
Independence does matter and will matter more in the coming years. The appetite is there, and yet there remains an untapped potential.
It is essential to bear in mind that these young people have witnessed 14 years of Tory government in Westminster, including embarrassing attempts at governance during and post-pandemic, as well as relatively ineffective Labour control in Wales, where child poverty levels have hovered stubbornly around the 30% mark since the introduction of devolution.
Injustices surrounding funding, as seen with the HS2 fiasco, higher Air Passenger Duty on Cardiff airport than its equivalent in Bristol and a decrease in the number of Welsh MPs in Parliament strongly suggest that the status quo does not work for the Welsh.
The question that then gathers momentum is whether independence is more desirable than what we currently have.
This is a question with an answer far longer than this piece can provide. But it is also a question that is unanswerable without the input of Wales as a whole.
The arguments and counterarguments of the people must be tested and drawn from all corners of our country if a democratically robust position is to be reached.
Discussion
Wales and its people are the priority in our politics, and independence must be included in this discussion so that we may understand every option that is available to us.
But where is independence in the national debate? Aside from YesCymru’s efforts and the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales’ final report, there is scarce material on the matter.
Having recently written a dissertation analysing the case for Welsh independence myself, I found few articles written in favour of such reform, and even fewer against the position. The debate is underdeveloped in the Welsh context; how can we to come to an informed standing?
In short, we must talk more. Welsh, British and global current affairs must be discussed through the lens of independence.
Basic ideas of desirability and feasibility, together with our state’s structural set-up, future policy directions and possible foreign affairs, must be debated for our own benefit.
We must write opinion pieces, conduct academic research and reflect on the matter with our friends and family. Dedicated forums for discussion must be opened, with new initiatives, events, meetings, think tanks and pressure groups created.
We cannot take our young Senedd for granted – it must be revised, defended and improved upon.
We must not stumble unknowingly into a future where devolution is dismantled, or independence is achieved without public debate.
Wales should not settle for less than what is best for her people, and therefore we must discuss her independence as a viable and serious alternative.
Evan is a recent LLB Law graduate from the LSE and incoming LLM Governance and Devolution student at Cardiff University.
Support our Nation today
For the price of a cup of coffee a month you can help us create an independent, not-for-profit, national news service for the people of Wales, by the people of Wales.
Ethyrgl da iawn
Neu “erthygl”
‘Wales could come out of the next Senedd elections in 2026, perhaps unintentionally, with significant representation from a party that (is) staunchly opposed to devolution.’
If the recent Westminster election results are anything to go by, that could well prove to be the case. And the proposed changes to the voting system which will be in force by then make such an outcome if anything even more likely. In the Westminster constituency in which I live, on July 4th Reform UK polled roughly double the votes that Plaid Cymru received.
I totally agree. More information must be put out there regarding Welsh independence. The case for independence should be featured in regular articles in the South Wales Echo, Western Mail and Daily Post (and other publications), within local regional leaflet publications at libraries, community hubs, leisure centres, supermakets and other public amenities, on TV and radio news and in countrywide public consultation meetings. The subject must become at the forefront of every Welsh person’s mind. Why? Our children’s future prosperity – they deserve better.
You Tube would be the best platform nowadays.
Did the Redfield and Wilton survey collect any data other than what you’ve cited? The responses from 18-34 year-olds, excluding ‘don’t knows’, is hardly representative of the country as a whole. Please don’t forget that the majority for devolution in 1997 was 0.6%
Redfield and Wilton’s most recent stats (5-7 June 2024) place “No” at 57%, “Yes” at 33% and “Don’t Know” at 10%. We’ve come a long way since 1997, and a large part of this progress stems from the fact that there has now been an entire generation of Welsh citizens who have grown up in a country with devolution in place. The orthodox argument of “we’re not big / rich / capable enough” is wearing off and its becoming evident that we are able to function as a society free from British rule – a fact that the Independent Comission… Read more »
Da iawn eto Evan a diolch yn fawr iawn I chi.
Da iawn Evan. I am encouraged by the terms ‘nations and regions’ but what will that come to mean? What it must mean is that Westminster Labour devolves more and more powers to the two established parliaments in Wales & Scotland ahead of those, but still along with, the proposed English regions to protect all the aforementioned areas against future erosion and dismantling by any incoming Empire bolstering eradicationist abolitionist tyrants. The majority of policy areas must be permanently devolved and set in stone making reversal impossible. We have heard enough threats to our national existence in the last five… Read more »
The Senedd is rightly barring people who don’t live in Wales from being candidates at future Senedd elections. Would it also be possible to ban from these elections political parties (and individuals) that are in favour of abolishing the Senedd? Is there any sense whatever in allowing people who want to eliminate the Senedd – like Reform members – to be Senedd Members? Isn’t this a clear case of hypocrisy? Would the UK Parliament permit individuals who are in favour of abolishing it to be candidates at UK General Elections?
This is an extremely interesting question, especially from a legal standpoint. In the Wales Act 2017, Part A1 (3), it is stated that the Assembly (the Senedd) and Welsh Government are not to be abolished except on the basis of a decision of the Welsh people voting in a referendum. Disconcertingly, the abolishment of the Senedd and Welsh Government is a legal possibility. In political reality, this will never happen, but I understand your frustration. Perhaps counterintuitively, I believe that this is an opportunity to develop the independence debate. To ensure that the arguments in favour of independence are as… Read more »
It would be wrong for the Senedd to ban its critics. That’s not democratic. If the Senedd cannot command loyalty than it’s the Senedd which is the problem, not its critics.
Abolitionists should indeed be disqualified on the principle that you cannot be allowed to stand on what you plan to sabotage.
I think all members of the Senydd should take an oath to support the people, language, culture and parliament of Cymru, or not qualify to take their seats.
This seems very authoritarian, not democratic. Who would define the culture? Are you seriously going to ban people who don’t speak Welsh? What is meant by ‘the people’?
People who live here are citizens of Cymru regardless of their Language, Colour, Religion or Place of Birth.
Are you reading from a script in your head? Nobody said anything about banning no. Welsh speakers
A. Article 1 (2) – Equal rights and self-determination of peoplesArticle 1 (2) establishes that one of the main purposes of the United Nations, and thus the Security Council, is to develop friendly international relations based on respect for the “principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples”. The case studies in this section cover instances where the Security Council has discussed situations with a bearing on the principle of self-determination and the right of peoples to decide their own government, which may relate to the questions of independence, autonomy, referenda, elections, and the legitimacy of governments.
International law’s principle of self-determination is very interesting in the context of Wales. I highly recommend reading Tom Sparks’ recent book titled “Self-Determination in the International Legal System: Whose Claim to What Right?” and Amy Maguire’s article “Contemporary Anti-Colonial Self-Determination Claims and the Decolonisation of International Law” for further insight into the topic. Could Wales pursue a decolonisation claim of self-determination? Is the salt-water test, which generally prohibits a colonised country’s claim to decolonisation unless there is considerable distance (or “salt water”) between itself and the coloniser, a valid theory in the modern day?