Support our Nation today - please donate here
Opinion

Why Reform UK isn’t good for Wales – a stark wake‑up call

12 Jul 2025 6 minute read
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage speaks during a press conference in Port Talbot. Photo Ben Birchall/PA Wire

Antony David Davies, FRSA

As Wales stands on the brink of its next Senedd election, it is hard not to be deeply unsettled by one extraordinary fact: an English nationalist party is now among the most popular political forces in our country.

Recent polls show Reform UK, the vehicle of Nigel Farage’s long project of English populism, nearly level with Plaid Cymru and ahead of Labour in some snapshots. This ought to ring alarm bells in every corner of Welsh civic life.

Reform UK is not just another right‑wing party. It is, at its heart, an English nationalist movement. From its messaging to its leadership, Reform has always advanced a distinctly English vision of sovereignty and governance, born out of Brexit fervour and stoked by frustrations largely tied to English politics.

‘British identity’

Its platforms and slogans consistently invoke a “British” identity that, in practice, is overwhelmingly rooted in English concerns. Their high-profile events, media blitzes and rally lines circle around what they see as England’s lost pride and betrayed interests, with scant recognition that Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland have their own economies, cultures and constitutional frameworks.

Even Farage has been plain over the years that his political mission is to reshape English politics — his entire brand is tied to grievances that are not grounded in the Welsh experience.

The party’s approach to devolution lays this bare. There is no serious engagement with how to strengthen Welsh self-government or adapt policy to our unique needs. If anything, their instincts point to rolling back devolved powers, or ignoring them outright as inconvenient hurdles on the path to a more tightly run British (read English) state.

That makes the latest polling all the more sobering. A Sky News survey in July put Reform on 28% in Wales — ahead of Labour and just behind Plaid. A YouGov poll in May showed them at 25%, virtually neck-and-neck with Plaid Cymru.

It is an astonishing spectacle: a party whose political DNA is steeped in English nationalism is now poised to wield serious power in the Welsh Senedd. Imagine the outcry if an explicitly Welsh nationalist party were polling at 25% in England. Yet here in Wales, there is a quiet drift that could soon have profound consequences.

‘Identity politics’

Reform’s predictable response is to dismiss this as “identity politics,” to insist they simply speak for ordinary people across the UK. They would claim questioning their English orientation is unfair or somehow anti-British.

But that entirely misses the point. This is not about denying common interests across these islands; it is about recognising that Wales has distinct priorities, challenges and institutions that have evolved through devolution over the past 25 years.

Reform’s record shows little appetite to defend or deepen that Welsh democracy. Their focus is on a centralised British state run on English political terms — precisely the model Welsh devolution sought to rebalance.

It would be one thing if Reform had invested time in developing a credible economic plan for Wales. Instead, their pitch leans heavily on populist promises like reopening coal mines or reviving heavy industry without serious engagement with climate targets, market realities or the needs of a modern Welsh economy.

Their vision trades on nostalgia, offering seductive but hollow assurances to communities long failed by both Westminster and Cardiff Bay. Meanwhile, Wales’s real opportunities lie in building a green industrial future, investing in renewables and high-skill sectors that could sustain towns and rural areas alike. That demands policy seriousness — something conspicuously lacking from Reform’s proposals.

‘Very serious threat’

More troubling still is the impact a strong Reform bloc could have on our institutions. Eluned Morgan has already warned that Reform poses a “very serious threat” to Wales, while Rhun ap Iorwerth has cautioned they could undermine the very fabric of Welsh democracy.

In a Senedd designed to reflect Welsh priorities, handing power or kingmaker influence to a party fundamentally oriented toward English politics risks distorting budgets, laws and social policy away from what is best for our communities.

Yes, Wales’s more proportional electoral system offers some safeguard against outright dominance. But it is no guarantee. A recent YouGov MRP study showed that at Westminster, Reform could win 42% of seats on just 26% of the vote under first-past-the-post. Even in the Senedd, a strong Reform surge could give them leverage to extract concessions or block essential programmes — whether on healthcare, the Welsh language, or local economic support.

That should concern anyone who wants decisions about Wales to be made in Wales.

It would be wrong to dismiss why voters are tempted. Many in our valleys, towns and uplands feel abandoned after years of broken promises, economic stagnation and a political conversation that too often circles London. Reform’s blunt, anti-establishment language resonates because it names frustrations that are real.

But voting for them is not a neutral protest — it is a choice to entrust Welsh futures to a movement that does not fundamentally share Wales’s priorities or aspirations.

Former Conservatives

Many of Reform’s leading voices are former Conservatives who championed the very austerity that hollowed out local services and community infrastructure. Their sudden reinvention as populist champions deserves the sharp scrutiny Welsh voters have always been known for.

Ultimately, this is about the kind of nation we want to build. Do we deepen Welsh self-government, invest in a resilient economy, protect our language and cultural life, and ensure decisions are made close to home? Or do we hand real influence to a party whose gaze is fixed elsewhere, whose policies are steeped in English political nostalgia, and whose plans for Wales amount to little more than slogans?

This is not scaremongering — it is the sober reality of where current trends point. If we care about building a prosperous, confident Wales on our own terms, rooted in our communities and democratic institutions, we must not drift passively into an arrangement that could unpick it all. Reform UK may claim to speak plainly, but on the evidence so far, they cannot deliver the stable, future-focused, self-respecting Wales we deserve. For our country’s sake, it is time to see that clearly and act on it.

Antony David Davies FRSA is a historian of Welsh upland communities, author of Old Llyfnant Farming Families, with deep family roots in Montgomeryshire.


Support our Nation today

For the price of a cup of coffee a month you can help us create an independent, not-for-profit, national news service for the people of Wales, by the people of Wales.

Subscribe
Notify of
guest


36 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Amir
Amir
1 month ago

Reform just promotes hatred and division. And the Welsh language is of no improvement or significance. They know the history of the subjugation of Welsh language and that is why this feels like a massive slap in the face of all Welsh people.

Steve D.
Steve D.
1 month ago

There is still a long way to go. Closer to the time I can see many leaflets hitting doormats with the heading “Do you want Wales run by an English nationalist party?”. Hopefully, that’ll make a few think!

Fi yn unig
Fi yn unig
1 month ago

Since 1987, ‘Annibyniaeth nawr’ (a term I have typed on here many times) should have been screaming through the hearts and will of our people on the third accession of Thatcher. The fact that we appear to have taken no notice is going to be our eradication. Cut waste Nige says. That’s free prescriptions which will add £90 to my household bills. Vote death if you want to. Help yourself if you wish but please don’t vote for mine otherwise explain to me why you had a personal problem with me when I don’t even know you.

Annianegwr
Annianegwr
1 month ago

You’ve missed something big. You haven’t mentioned the British Empire. The crisis consists of this; the old (the UK aka British Empire) is dying and the new (a loose confederation of British nations) cannot yet be born. In this interregnum, many morbid symptoms (Brexit/Johnson/Farage/Sarmer etc etc) appear. The UK remains the British Empire. It might have lost most of its territories but it has not constitutionally changed. The same capitalist interests that built their empire for their own profit, remain. The City is a key part of an imperialist western hegemony. The UK is a vassal state in this order.… Read more »

Fi yn unig
Fi yn unig
1 month ago
Reply to  Annianegwr

100% spot on.

a a
a a
1 month ago

If they’re anti-devolution, they’re British nationalists, not English nationalists. A true English nationalist would be pro-devolution.

Gwyn Hopkins
Gwyn Hopkins
1 month ago
Reply to  a a

I disagree that Reform UK are British Nationalists. Plaid Cymru is Welsh Nationalist because it promotes independence for Wales. Likewise, the SNP promotes independence for Scotland. As English MPs are in full control of England (after all a massive 84% of MPs represent English constituencies) that country is already independent. Unfortunately that’s not enough for those MPs – they control, and want to remain in control, of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland too. As such, the “British” parties are all English Nationalist including, and especially, Reform UK.   

Annianegwr
Annianegwr
1 month ago
Reply to  Gwyn Hopkins

This is a misunderstanding. They are culturally anglo-supremacist. Their British Nationalism is an expression of their English Imperialism. Britishness as a synonym for Englishness imposed on the UK. This is what we define as Anglo-Britishness. In that sense, they are very much British Nationalists. The mistaken belief of Britain as a (anglo) nation. The antidote to which is British Pluralism. That is the understanding of Britain as a multinational, multicultural archipegalo. So the appropriate model of government is a decentralised, loose confederation.

hdavies15
hdavies15
1 month ago
Reply to  Annianegwr

You got it there describing Reform as culturally anglo-supremacist but they are not on their own. Most of those who inhabit the ranks of the other Unionist parties are cut from much the same cloth, maybe watered down a bit in places but having the same net result. Very telling is how they have responded to the perceived threat from Reform – mostly by matching the ideas or ideals of Reform not attacking them and adopting clear contrary positions. They are all running scared but running in the same direction as their bogey man. Not a good look all round.

Jeff
Jeff
1 month ago

Blokes a grifter.
See brexit.
And the stain on the UK remains here after he promised to get out.
In the pocket of a convicted felon and abuser who are both at the end of strings putin tugs.

Whatever gave it away that he is a wrong un?

He gets power there will be a massive uptick in race hate (see farage race riots), and anyone else he don’t like hate, they are already trying to ban pride flags and books and one reform org gone full whacko on chemtrail, guess the direction in travel.

Jeff
Jeff
1 month ago
Reply to  Jeff

And Macon was bang on the money, the UK was lied to. Guess who by.

Undecided
Undecided
1 month ago

“There is no serious engagement with how to strengthen Welsh government or adapt policy to our unique needs”. Well, true; but therein lies the rub. One could say exactly the same about Welsh Labour and the Welsh Conservatives. Meanwhile Plaid witter on about HS2, the Crown Estate etc – issues that simply do not resonate with the overwhelming majority. Add that to 26 years of nothing (which the author does acknowledge to be fair), then why can anyone claim to be truly surprised at the current state of affairs?

Ernie The Smallholder
Ernie The Smallholder
1 month ago
Reply to  Undecided

If the Welsh people don’t take control of their nation from the British/English colonialist within the next year than we could find ourselves in the same position as Ukraine ! When we as a people do wake up, British power will not tolerate any decent from what it believes to be their property, their country, not ours. This is why we must as a peoples prepare for independence now. Ideally, We need to get this settled while it is still peacefully possible. We don’t want our nation to be bombed as Ukraine is experiencing today. It is a real possibility… Read more »

Undecided
Undecided
1 month ago

Meanwhile, back in the real world……

David J
David J
1 month ago
Reply to  Undecided

So the loss of billions to Cymru because of the Crown Estate ripoff and the HS2 con-trick results in “wittering”? And you think people here are uncaring about the loss of vast sums which could transform life here?

Tim Morris
Tim Morris
1 month ago

These points are entirely valid. That said, they miss one significant fact; much of Reform’s popularity stems from its recognition of the anger felt by so many across the UK towards established political parties. Since 2008, many have borne the brunt of the financial crisis’ impact. This has been in the form of hollowed-out services, pay stagnation, reduced opportunities, and growing inequality. Reform has placed that centre stage, albeit wrapped up in its anti-immigrant, client-denialist, libertarian rhetoric. Labour and the Conservatives are easy targets since they are both implicated in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis. The Tories, perhaps more… Read more »

Annianegwr
Annianegwr
1 month ago
Reply to  Tim Morris

You’re describing the present capitalist crisis. Farage is just milking it. This is where the Left needs to get its act together. Labour ceded the economic argument to Neoliberals in order to win elections as “New Labour” (or should that be Neo Lib Lab). The Left looks like it’s giving up on the battle for the Labour Party. In Wales, Plaid needs to be the home for the Left and we need to give the economic alternative to the capitalist disaster rapidly unfolding.

Anonymous
Anonymous
1 month ago
Reply to  Annianegwr

“… Plaid needs to be the home for the Left and we need to give the economic alternative”; that’s the rub of the problem – Plaid is seen as left wing, so no surprises that ‘the right wing’ has come into the fore.

Annianegwr
Annianegwr
1 month ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Plaid wont win anything trying to ape the Right. Let me know how that’s going for Labour. Let Gwlad fill that particular hole. What about the main point – that the Left needs to politically defeat Neoliberalism?

Last edited 1 month ago by Annianegwr
Thomas
Thomas
1 month ago
Reply to  Annianegwr

Perhaps you can enlighten us about the economic alternative to capitalism that you advocate, and maybe you can illustrate it with a handful of countries that have successfully demonstrated your preferred approach?
Capitalism isn’t perfect, but there is a shortage of better alternatives.

Simon
Simon
24 days ago
Reply to  Thomas

There are alternatives but they don’t get discussed.

Too many people think that the only alternative to Capitalism is USSR-style Communism because that’s what the mainstream media have been telling us for a century.

David J
David J
1 month ago
Reply to  Tim Morris

You are fooling yourself if you think that most Reform supporters are susceptible to reasoned arguments; it is a cult, and having grown up next door to a family of religious fundamentalists, I knew at an early age that rational argument is useless in the face of cult mentality. There is well documented evidence of the venality, ignorance and incompetence of reform councillors (see Political Custard on You Tube for example), but Reform members will ignore that, or if they see it, will stick their fingers in their ears and shout “fake news”. Better to concentrate on the undecided voters… Read more »

Jeff
Jeff
1 month ago

Article in the FT, reform doge unit blocked from accessing sensitive data.

invisiblemouse
invisiblemouse
1 month ago

Welsh Labour have failed the people of Wales and Plaid have let their radicals have the loudest voice for too many years now. I will be voting Propel but can totally understand why people could be lured in by Reforms promises. Labour are done for in my opinion and not before time. Plaid need to move closer to centre or accept they will alienate a lot of people and only have their core behind them,

David J
David J
1 month ago
Reply to  invisiblemouse

No, Plaid need to maintain socialist policies and campaign for independence, for the clear benefit of the Cymry. We were the first nation to be colonised by the English, let’s not be the last.

Rand Kent
Rand Kent
1 month ago

Have read all the comments….please someone point to how the devolved Nations have succeeded in serving their people…Scotland and Wales are falling behind across the board! The British public should unite to face global challenges. All this petty nit-picking about “identity” is missing the key issue – we are a tiny, failing economy & dividing and bickering is perpetuating this doom loop. Labour in Wales has been an untimigated disaster for 25 yrs. Wake up and smell the coffee!! The taxpayer is paying huge unnecessary costs for duplicated bureaucrats who fail to deliver…just alot of overpaid egos strutting around with… Read more »

Anianegwr
Anianegwr
1 month ago
Reply to  Rand Kent

Spurious argument. Devolution fails because it only exercises limited power gathered by Westminster. It is a democratic fig leaf for a failed state. This is not about identity. This is about democracy and governance. You talk of affordability. The wealth of billionaires has sky rocketed since 2008 whilst we the workers have suffered a fall in living standards and life expectancy. There’s plenty of money. The problem is that too few own it. Just to give you a taste – £350 BILLION lost to fraud and tax evasion every year in the UK. Let that sink in … THREE HUNDRED… Read more »

Last edited 1 month ago by Anianegwr
David J
David J
1 month ago
Reply to  Rand Kent

Try looking at smaller nations than Cymry within the EU, than tell us how and why Cymry as a free country in the EU will do badly. Actually, don’t bother; just look at Ireland.

Jeff
Jeff
1 month ago
Reply to  Rand Kent

Ban on beating up you kids for a start. Free prescription’s (yes I know its from taxes but like the NHS), free car parking at places where people need help, coast path, plastic bags and so on, place sort of works, but there are issues and none of those would be bettered from Whitehall (I do remember the days when they did). Biggest problem is limited power. I notice that parlance for labour is always including “disaster” from some sections. Right out of the press that will brief against Labour, right out of some channel Tory and reform use. I… Read more »

Stuart
Stuart
1 month ago
Reply to  Jeff

Who pays the price for free parking?

Simon
Simon
24 days ago
Reply to  Jeff

Free parking? If you an afford to run a car then you can pay to park it on someone else’s property. It’s public and active transport that should receive investment, not even more cars clogging up the roads. And if you think things like plastic bags, recycling etc are going to fix anything you are sadly mistaken. Reducing the huge growth in wealth inequality, which has led to spiralling rents and house prices and other things, is where our governments should begin. Privatisation of national resources like water, transport and health (including social care) and outsourcing public services have all… Read more »

Our Supporters

All information provided to Nation.Cymru will be handled sensitively and within the boundaries of the Data Protection Act 2018.

Complete your gift to make an impact