Will the Lib Dems be Senedd kingmakers in 2026?

Jonathan Edwards

Party conferences after an election can go one of two ways. Delegates can either be feeling happy about matters and the focus is on how to move forwards. Or they can be a gathering of the wounded where a week of deep introspection awaits.

The Liberal Democrats’ conference in Brighton this week after having returned 72 MPs in July is certainly the former.

The Lib Dems are an interesting party in that its center ground position gives it genuine strategic flexibility. It has often found itself in positions to wield considerable influence with far reaching consequences, depending on decisions taken by the party at the time.

I offer three examples from my own experience where different decisions by the party would have radically altered the history of Wales and the UK.

Firstly, the failed Rainbow Coalition of 2007; secondly the decision following the 2010 general election to turn down a deal to keep Gordon Brown as Prime Minister and instead form a coalition with the Conservatives; and lastly the decision during the paralysis of the 2017-19 Westminster Parliament to go for a snap election (with the SNP and Labour) instead of holding out for a second EU referendum.

Looking to the 2026 Senedd election, perhaps the most important of the three to focus on is the implications of the events following the National Assembly elections held on May 3 2007. Labour had won only 26 of the 60 Senedd seats: there was therefore the only real opportunity to date for a non-Labour administration in Wales.

Rainbow Coalition

The leadership of Plaid Cymru, the Conservative Party and the Liberal Democrats had agreed on a programme of government with ministers from the three parties and Ieuan Wyn Jones as First Minister.

Plaid Cymru had its own internal difficulties in relation to the so-called Rainbow Coalition. I was a young optimist at the time and had my own reservations founded on a deep belief that the party could break through with one last heave.

The real spanner in the works however came from the Liberal Democrats who rejected the deal at a special conference. One month later the One Wales Government was formed between Labour and Plaid Cymru and the pattern of various forms of Labour rule has continued ever since.

Would a Rainbow government have broken Wales’ seeming acceptance of the inevitability of Labour rule? Who knows. The reality of this decision however is that it has made it difficult to imagine a situation in Wales in which there will ever be a non-Labour led Welsh government for as long as Labour are challenged by the current opposition parties.

If you look at the history of devolution, Labour’s successful management of the Welsh political chess board has left it unassailable. All alternative options to their rule have been closed off unless voting habits radically alter. The opposition parties deep in their hearts know when entering elections that they are not going to overtake Labour. Welsh politics in the devolution age has been an oasis of stasis in more ways than one.

Much commentary from Brighton has concentrated on where Ed Davey takes the Lib Dems from here. Do they continue to focus on attacking the Tories or do they aim some of their guns on Labour as the UK governing party? The Liberal Democrats’ strategy at UK level understood that their best bet was jumping on the coat-tails of the Labour ‘change’ narrative in seats where they were the most obvious challenger to Tory incumbents. Furthermore, they understand that taking chunks out of Keir Starmer and his administration is an act of self-mutilation as a Tory revival in the polls endangers their gains in July.

Creative

However, in a Welsh context the strategy employed by the Liberal Democrats at UK level doesn’t work. Quite simply there are not enough Tory/Lib Dem marginals. In July it only yielded one seat in Wales where David Chadwick captured the new seat of Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe. With the Senedd election in mind, Jane Dodds and her team are going to have to be more creative.

The D’Hondt electoral system isn’t the easiest to decipher; however the Lib Dems are going to have to improve their poll ratings if they are to achieve the minimum threshold required for a seat in the new Senedd constituencies. Their success in England last July was based on clever targeting of constituencies, and their strategists need to employ similar informed decision making for 2026 as opposed to a blanket approach.

Headwinds

Quite frankly it’s anyone’s guess what results we can expect in the next Senedd election. My feeling is that despite the gale force headwinds facing the Labour Party, the fact that voters will only cast one vote is likely to help them.

If they fall short of a majority the Lib Dems could be serious players in the next Parliament if they can cobble together enough seats.

The challenge for them is how to achieve such an outcome when their core strategic position prohibits outright opposition to the governing party of the day, as essentially their only route to power relies on coming to a post-election agreement which keeps that party in power.

Jane Dodds for Deputy First Minister anyone?

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East & Dinefwr 2010-24.