Six Nation’s preview: Can Wales prove the pundits wrong and break their dismal losing streak?

Simon Thomas 

The bookies don’t tend to get too much wrong and if they are right about the Six Nations then there’s more Welsh woe on the horizon.

Wales are 50-1 outsiders for the Championship title, while you can get odds of 25-1 on them beating France in their opening fixture in Paris next Friday, which is pretty startling for a two-horse race.

But it’s hard to argue with that appraisal given they have lost 12 Tests on the trot.

It’s also hard to see where the win is going to come from during this Six Nations to end the barren run, with home games against Ireland and England, along with trips to France, Italy and Scotland.

Head coach Warren Gatland has been in bombastic mood, repeating what he said before the 2023 World Cup about writing Wales off at your peril.

On that occasion, his comments proved somewhat justified as they topped their group amid a thumping 40-6 victory over Australia.

But the optimism generated by that result has long since dissipated amid a steady decline which has left Gatland fighting for his job.

So, can he turn things around? Well, his first task is to pick a team to take on France. Let’s look at the options and decisions he now faces following some pretty contentious omissions from his 34-man squad.

Back three

Cam Winnett and Rio Dyer made the joint-most starts for Wales in 2024 – with nine apiece – but there was no place for either of them in the Six Nations squad.

In Winnett’s absence, the 92-cap Liam Williams is odds on to occupy the full-back berth.

There are other players in the squad who can wear 15. One of them, Blair Murray, was actually the last player to do so – against South Africa in November.

But he has played all his rugby for the Scarlets this season on the wing, as has the uncapped Ellis Mee who was primarily a full-back with Nottingham in the English Championship.

Their team-mate, Tom Rogers, has played three games for the west Wales region at 15 this term, but the majority of his appearances have come on the wing too.

In contrast, the one thing Williams is not short of is experience at full-back, for both club and country, with the 33-year-old having lined up there as recently as yesterday in Saracens’ Premiership clash with Exeter at Sandy Park.

Japan

When he headed to Japan to join Kubota Spears after the 2023 World Cup, one wondered whether his international career was over.

But there was firm evidence he was still in Gatland’s plans from his selection for last summer’s tour of Australia where he started the first Test.

Now any availability issues have been resolved, given his move from Japan to Sarries and his recovery from the knee injury which kept him out of the autumn campaign.

So now he’s back to start in the Six Nations, eleven years on from his Championship debut.

Another highly experienced back three man set to return to the side after injury issues is Josh Adams.

The 59-cap winger endured a wretched year on the fitness front in 2024, with his knees repeatedly filling up with blood, while a groin issue required a hernia operation which consigned him to six months on the sidelines.

But when he eventually returned to action for Cardiff in late November, it soon became clear the 29-year-old’s predatory prowess was not diminished.

Four well-taken tries in the space of three games in December confirmed he still knew he knew his way to the try-line and was close to being back to his razor-sharp best.

As for who plays on the other wing, discarded Dragon Dyer is now out of the equation along with the crocked Mason Grady.

So it’s a choice between the aforementioned Scarlets trio and Gloucester’s Josh Hathaway.

Tom Rogers looks favourite for the role, having produced one of the individual performances of the autumn against Australia.

He’s an elusive runner, a quality finisher and strong in defence, while the Wales management will be very enamoured by his ability in the air.

Likely starters: Liam Williams, Josh Adams, Tom Rogers

Centres

Ben Thomas and Max Llewellyn were the starting centres throughout the autumn series, yet we are heading for a complete change in midfield.

Cardiff’s Thomas looks set to revert to the No 10 jersey he wore in last summer’s Tests against the Wallabies, while Llewellyn was bafflingly left out of the squad altogether.

Gatland explained this by pointing to the fact that the Gloucester threequarter didn’t touch the ball in the heavy defeat to South Africa in November.

Yet if someone who is so heavily involved in the action for his club – scoring seven tries this season – doesn’t get on the ball, is that down to him or the coaches?

The game-plan against the Springboks certainly didn’t do Llewellyn any favours – with a forward tending to do the midfield carry off lineout – which left him just chasing kicks and making tackles before being withdrawn on 57 minutes.

Options

Expanding on his exclusion, Gatland said Wales had plenty of quality options at 12, but were short of depth at 13.

Yet Llewellyn wore No 13 in all three autumn Tests, while that’s the position he’s featured most in this season for the Cherry & Whites, with six starts compared to just three at 12.

So go figure!

Another man who can consider himself pretty unfortunate to miss out is Johnny Williams. He’s looking like the complete centre these days, carrying hard, tackling hard and offloading to great effect, as illustrated by his Player of the Match display for the Scarlets in yesterday’s victory over Edinburgh.

Yet he’s one of those players who Gatland just seems to have moved on from.

Given the squad selection and Thomas’ likely positional switch, the centre is one of the hardest areas of the team to accurately predict.

It’s a case of perming two from Eddie James, Owen Watkin, Nick Tompkins and Joe Roberts.

You suspect the versatile Watkin will occupy one of the berths, with Wales greatly valuing his solidity, while he’s been in good form for the Ospreys this season and brings 42-caps worth of experience to the table.

He plays at 13 for his region and is very adept at the defensive organisation which is such a key part of that role.

Physical presence

If that’s where he lines up in Paris, then Eddie James could well get the nod at inside centre. At 6ft 4ins and 17st 5lbs, the 22-year-old James brings a real physical presence and offers that precious gain-line crossing ability, while he also has decent hands. The word is the Wales coaches have been very impressed by his form of late.

Yet Gatland has talked publicly about the left foot kicking option another young Scarlet, Roberts, offers at 13.

It’s also worth noting the last time the 24-year-old was available to Wales, before being struck down by a serious knee injury, he started. As it happens, that was also against France, with the former Burry Porth youth player scoring a try on his Championship debut.

If Gatland does go with Roberts, then the adaptable Watkin could move in one to 12.

You’ve also got the experience and versatility of Tompkins who demonstrated a further string to his bow with Saracens yesterday by coming on as a flanker, the position where he actually began his rugby career.

So, plenty of permutations to consider in midfield and a bit of a toss of the coin in terms of my prediction!

Likely starters: Eddie James, Owen Watkin

Half-backs

There’s a very welcome return at scrum-half for Tomos Williams who suffered a shoulder injury in the autumn opener against Fiji.

This is a really big Six Nations for the man from Treorchy, with a place on the Lions tour of Australia – and maybe even a starting Test spot against the Wallabies – the juicy carrot on the horizon.

He has been in simply sparkling form for Gloucester of late, showing off the creativity and handling dexterity which Cardiff fans enjoyed watching for so many seasons, as well as those astute support lines, one of which earned him a try against Leicester yesterday.

Yet it’s probably fair to say he hasn’t consistently transferred his excellent club form to the international stage for any prolonged period during his career.

He’s now 30, so this really is the moment and what better way to start than by sparkling against a certain Antoine Dupont?

As for the fly-half duties, those were shared between Sam Costellow and Gareth Anscombe during the autumn, but once again it’s a tale of change here.

Costelow will miss the entire Championship following surgery on a fractured collar bone, while Anscombe was another high profile omission from the squad, a decision which was accompanied by a further perplexing explanation from Gatland.

The Kiwi coach referenced the fact that the Gloucester pivot is 33 and questioned whether he would be around for the next World Cup in 2027.

Yet Taulupe Faletau is 34, while Liam Williams, Will Rowlands, Henry Thomas and Sam Parry are all 33.

So that one doesn’t really stack up.

Insight

Gatland did go on to provide further insight into Anscombe’s omission, pointing out that he hasn’t been taking on the kicking duties at Gloucester.

But when you see the way the former Cardiff and Ospreys playmaker performed for the Cherry & Whites yesterday, expertly pulling the strings in their 38-31 victory over Leicester, it does strike you as something of a baffling decision – especially given his blossoming club half-back partnership with Williams.

Gatland maintains there was a need to develop some strength in depth in “a position of concern”, which is fair enough, but you do wonder whether leaving the 38-cap Anscombe out of the squad altogether may come back to bite him.

In his absence, the options for Paris are players who only have two Test starts at No 10 between them.

The man who has both of those to his name, Ben Thomas, did play there as recently as last summer out in Australia, where he went pretty well.

But he has only had two outings in the position for his club in the past couple of seasons, with the vast majority of his appearances for Cardiff having been at inside centre.

The other contender is the uncapped Dan Edwards.

The 21-year-old has been pressing hard for selection with his performances for the Ospreys, steadily maturing in terms of his all-round game, with his polished distribution and tactical control.

It’s a deserved call-up, but it would be a real baptism of fire to throw him straight into the team at the Stade de France. You wouldn’t rule it out completely, as Gatland has been known to back the talent of youth in big games in the past.

But, on balance, it seems more likely that the 26-year-old Thomas will be handed the keys to No 10 in Paris. He is a classy footballer, with good handling skills and an astute kicking game, while he also brings the greater physicality Gatland has talked about wanting at fly-half, being well used to regular collisions in the centre.

Likely starters: Ben Thomas, Tomos Williams

Front row

Having captained Wales during the autumn, the luckless Dewi Lake must now watch on from home this weekend having undergone bicep surgery.

It was initially thought he was going to miss the entire Six Nations through injury for a third year in a row, but the latest word is he could be back fit in time to potentially play some part in the Championship. We await more news on that front.

Fellow hooker Ryan Elias is also sidelined at present, having not played since November due to a neck issue.

As such, Elliot Dee’s recent return from an ankle injury has been very timely.

There is strong competition from the in-form Sam Parry, who is back in the fold after choosing to leave the camp last summer, while there’s the ball-carrying impact of converted back rower Evan Lloyd to consider.

But one suspects the 51-times capped Dee’s Test experience and reliability will earn him the starting spot.

Recall

Turning to the props, it’s great to see Nicky Smith back in the mix on the loosehead. His recall this season has been thoroughly merited given his form for Leicester, yet he demonstrated the exact same consistent excellence at the Ospreys only to be overlooked at international level in recent years. Suddenly now he’s playing in England, he’s back in favour – yet at least he is on board.

You would expect him to be in the 23 for Paris, however it’s his former regional colleague Gareth Thomas who looks likely to be handed the No 1 jersey.

He started nine of Wales’ 11 Tests last year and has been scrummaging strongly for the Ospreys, while also delivering his trademark high work-rate.

On the other side of the scrum, Bath’s Archie Griffin established himself as first choice tighthead last year, but he’s now out of the equation following shoulder surgery.

The player who was his back-up on last summer’s tour of Australia, Harri O’Connor, is also on a lengthy lay-off after tearing his Achilles tendon.

At the other end of the experience scale, long-time No 3 Tomas Francis has been unavailable since the World Cup having opted to focus on his club career in France with Provence, while he’s out with a neck injury now in any case. And the man who frequently provided back-up to him over the years, Dillon Lewis, has slipped out of the reckoning.

This has all seen a recall to the squad for the 32-year-old WillGriff John, who won the last of his two caps in 2021, with the lack of a fair and reasonable offer from a Welsh region when he returned to Sale from the Scarlets meaning he is not captured by the 25-cap rule.

John will now not be available for the France game having failed a HIA after coming off during the first half of today’s Premiership game against Bath – illustrating the risks associated with having to release non-Welsh based players back to their clubs.

As for who will actually start on the tighthead, it’s a suitably tight call.

Henry Thomas has been performing really well for the Scarlets, serving as their scrum cornerstone and also contributing around the park, but it looks as though Cardiff’s Keiron Assiratti is ahead of him in the pecking order, having been involved in all three autumn Tests.

Likely starters: Gareth Thomas, Elliot Dee, Keiron Assiratti

Second row

There’s a very welcome return here for the man who was Wales’ captain during last year’s Six Nations – Dafydd Jenkins.

He missed the autumn series after undergoing knee and shoulder surgery, but he now has six games under his belt for Exeter, the most recent of which came yesterday when he skippered them to a 31-22 victory over Saracens.

It’s easy to forget he’s still only 22, given the amount of responsibility he has been handed so early in his career, but he clearly has a maturity way beyond his years.

The leadership skills he possesses will be valuable in support of Championship captain Jac Morgan, while his work ethic, athleticism and physicality make him a real asset to have back on board.

You then come to the question of who will partner him in the second row.

In last year’s Six Nations, he packed down alongside Adam Beard, while on the summer tour of Australia it was his Exeter pal Christ Tshuinza.

Beard is out of the frame after suffering a knee injury in November, while Tshuinza has only had two outings off the bench for his club since the autumn internationals, so it’s hard to see him getting the nod.

The man who deserves selection on form is the consistently impressive Teddy Williams, who started every game for Cardiff this season prior to joining up with the national squad and has topped the tackle and lineout charts in the URC.

There are also the rookie merits of Freddie Thomas, with the youngster having been catching the eye for Gloucester.

But one suspects the 36-cap Will Rowlands will get the nod in the hope he can reproduce the international form he was showing a year or two back when he was combining physicality with athleticism to good effect.

Likely starters: Will Rowlands, Dafydd Jenkins

Back row

The make-up of the breakaway department is likely to hinge heavily on the fitness of Taulupe Faletau.

When he injured his knee in training earlier this month, the word from the Cardiff camp was he was “touch and go” to be fit for the start of the Six Nations, with the indication being he was more touch than go.

But, speaking at the Six Nations launch last Tuesday, Gatland insisted everyone in the squad was available for selection and subsequent video footage showed Faletau running during training.

Now, we do have to remember he’s only made four appearances in the 15 months since the World Cup.

But you are talking about a very special individual here, one of Wales’ all-time greats.

Gatland has spoken about how impressed he was with the 34-year-old when he trained with the national squad in the autumn, in terms of the enduring quality of his running lines and some of his touches.

Motivated

He’s also stressed that Faletau is a pretty motivated man who wants to have a really good Six Nations with the potential prize of a fourth Lions tour in the summer.

Hearing all that, you do get the impression the great man may be restored at No 8 against France for his first Test outing since October 2023.

Clearly, Jac Morgan is nailed on for the openside berth, based both on him being captain and also on him being in outstanding form.

In his most recent game for the Ospreys, away to Pau, he put in 30 – yes, 30 – tackles and also topped the turnover chart, while his carrying was as dynamic as ever. It was a truly exceptional performance from one of the few Wales players who looks odds on for a Lions tour spot.

Logically, if Faletau is to start, you would expect the blindside spot to be filled by Aaron Wainwright switching from No 8.

But it is worth remembering he was dropped for the final Test of the autumn against South Africa.

Plus there’s the fact the coaches have a huge amount of time for the physicality and fitness levels James Botham brings on the blindside flank.

It would be a big call to leave out Wainwright who is, after all, the reigning Wales Player of the Year, and the more likely scenario is he will start, but you wouldn’t say it’s written in stone.

Then you also have the option of including Leicester openside Tommy Reffell in the match-day 23, enabling him to come on and demonstrate his appropriately Tigerish attributes once the game opens up.

Decisions, decisions…

Likely starters: Aaron Wainwright, Jac Morgan, Taulupe Faletau