Welsh rugby at the crossroads after autumn misery

Simon Thomas

Two years on from the axing of a Kiwi Wales coach after an autumn review, we now wait to learn the fate of another.

In 2022, Wayne Pivac was sacked nine days after the final November Test, to be replaced by his countryman predecessor Warren Gatland.

Now it’s Gatland turn to have his future decided by a WRU end-of-autumn review.

The killer blow for Pivac was the shattering home defeat to Georgia midway through the 2022 November campaign.

However, it is worth remembering that his Wales team recorded victories over Scotland, the Springboks and Argentina that year, with the win in Bloemfontein being an historic first success on South African soil.

In contrast, Gatland has lost all 11 matches in 2024, with Saturday’s final fixture seeing a 45-12 thumping at the hands of the ‘Boks.

It’s the first time since 1937 that Wales have gone through a calendar year without winning a Test and they only played three that year.

Adding in the World Cup quarter-final loss to Argentina, that’s now 12 defeats in a row – as we all know, the worst ever run under a Welsh coach.

If you look at Gatland’s record since taking over from Pivac, it’s played 24, won 6, lost 18.

That’s a return which would see most sports coaches shown the door.

So is that what will happen?

Well, that’s where the autumn review takes over.

Outside opinion

We know the WRU are going to seek outside opinion as part of the process, although we don’t know who those individuals will be.

Similarly we don’t know how long the process will take, but clearly it needs to be reasonably rapid with the start of the Six Nations just 68 days away.

There’s been some conjecture that the WRU wouldn’t be able to afford to get rid of Gatland, even if they wanted to, given the cost of a severance package.

But the word from Union sources is the financial aspect won’t dictate the process and, if they decide a change is necessary, that is what will happen regardless of the price tag.

So the call is theirs. Do they back Gatland to rediscover the mojo from his first spell and turn things around or do they conclude that enough is enough?

They have to consider whether anyone else would do any better with the current crop of players and, if so, would such a person be available and want the job.

Potential targets

Plenty of names have been bandied about as potential targets – Ronan O’Gara, Steve Tandy, Michael Cheika, Shaun Edwards, Franco Smith, Simon Easterby, Pat Lam, Robin McBryde, Brad Mooar.

But pretty much all of those are under contract, complicating the situation further.

So we wait to see which way the Union will turn.

In the mean-time, we can all undertake our own reviews of the autumn campaign.

For me, it reads something like this – Fijian farce, Wallaby woe and slain by the Springboks.

The opener against Fiji saw the misguided 6-2 split on the bench compounded by sending the wrong player on as a sub, while 32 missed tackles sealed the team’s fate.

Versus Australia, they blew a golden red card opportunity as they conceded 21 points against 14 men on the way to a record defeat.

Then, finally, there was yesterday’s meeting with South Africa. It was first in the world rankings against 11th and that gulf was there for all to see.

It was just about as one-sided a contest as you could imagine, with the ‘Boks enjoying 61 per cent possession and 58 per cent territory.

Onslaught

You had wave after wave of men in green – either big men or fast men or both – relentlessly bearing down on the white-jerseyed hosts in what, at times, felt like a never-ending onslaught.

It was simply incessant for much of the game – particularly in the first half – with Wales going long periods without touching the ball.

The tackle stats tell the story best of all.

Gatland’s men made 216 against just 93 from the ‘Boks.

There was bravery and heart shown in that prolonged rearguard effort, but the remorseless power and pace of the opposition just proved too much for them as they missed 46 tackles, a pretty much unheard of figure.

That contributed to them conceding seven tries and it could have been more with one disallowed, while there were a couple of narrow escapes.

Had James Botham not stepped his way over in the final play, it would have been a record margin of defeat in Cardiff, surpassing the 38 point gap twice inflicted by the All Blacks (in 2005 and 2021).

As it was, it was still one of the heaviest ever losses on home soil.

Yet, on leaving the stadium, I spoke to a number of fans who were relieved it hadn’t been worse, as they had been fearing a 60 or 70 point thrashing amid a sense of real trepidation.

That pretty much says it all about the current state of Welsh rugby.

We are becoming accustomed to defeat and it’s now just about limiting the damage against the big boys.

It’s a sorry state of affairs.

So, could anyone come in who would make a difference?

Well, the Wallabies do provide an example of what can happen when you replace a head coach who has had an unhappy second spell, having previously been successful.

For them, that saw Joe Schmidt taking over from Eddie Jones.

The transformation under the Kiwi has been startling.

Fourteen months on from losing 40-6 to Wales at the World Cup under Smith, the Wallabies won 52-20 in Cardiff with Schmidt at the helm.

So change can work, provided you can secure the right man.

We wait to see whether the WRU will look to follow suit.

Quality

Clearly, we are short on real top quality players right now, but there is a group of young men to build something around in Dewi Lake, Jac Morgan, Daf Jenkins, Aaron Wainwright, Tom Rogers, Archie Griffin, Ben Thomas, James Botham and Max Llewellyn, while it was good to see the recalled Rio Dyer bounce back with a fine finish yesterday.

Plus you’ve got injured men like Tomos Williams, Josh Adams, Adam Beard, Mason Grady, Joe Roberts, Regan Grace and maybe Taulupe Faletau to come back into the mix, along with Jenkins.

So there is raw material there to work with and hopefully get a bit more out of collectively. Who will be tasked with that job come the Six Nations opener away to France on January 31 remains to be seen.

Then there’s the wider question of where we are with the much-anticipated new strategy for Welsh rugby.

That plan was set to be unveiled this month, but there’s not much of the month left now.

However, it does sound as though we are close to an agreement being reached with the four pro teams over a future funding strategy, with an announcement expected before Christmas.

The aim is to increase the regional playing budgets from the current £4.5m to around £6.5m, via making savings on Union costs and rescheduling debt.

That would be a major boost and it’s much needed. There’s no way the regions can be competitive on their existing budgets, which have left them with squads of only around 40 players. More importantly, it’s not safe from a player welfare perspective, as reduced numbers creates a risk of players turning out when they really need a break or youngsters stepping up before they are ready.

So it’s good to see moves being made to address the funding issue after years of neglect and under-resourcing.

People repeatedly warned if the pro teams were allowed to wither, then Team Wales would eventually wither too as they are the supply chain for the national side. Those warnings were not heeded and that’s a large part of the reason why we are where we are.

It does seem now that the penny has finally dropped and there is a will on the part of the Union to give greater assistance to the regions, albeit they are looking for more say on issues such as squad make-up in return, while also going back to some degree of weighting payments based on the number of players produced for Wales.

So, still a few things to be finalised, but hopefully a deal can be done to enable squad strengthening for next season, with an emphasis on recruiting Welsh-qualified players.

Squad depth

There are more than 80 of those plying their trade outside of the country at present and if you could bring in say 20 or 30 of the best of those it would make a big difference to squad depth and quality.

In particular, you would want to see English-based youngsters such as Griffin, Joe Hawkins, Freddie Thomas and Josh Hathaway being targeted, with maybe the likes of Jenkins, Llewellyn, Chris Tshiunza, Tommy Reffell, Jarrod Evans and Dillon Lewis coming home at some point in the future.

That’s a story for a bit further down the line, albeit an important one.

First up, it’s time for that big decision on the head coach.