Theresa May’s ‘no deal’ Brexit plan shows why we need Welsh independence

Picture: Teacher Dude. (Public Domain Mark 1.0)

Ifan Morgan Jones

Wales has found itself shackled to a Tory government that’s about to jump off a financial cliff.

Theresa May has told the UK to prepare for a ‘no deal’ Brexit. This is like an airplane pilot telling you: ‘I’m just going to crash into that mountainside over there, I advise you to brace for impact.’

A ‘no deal’ Brexit would be ruinous for the UK economy, but for Wales even more so. It would wipe out the aviation sector – that’s Airbus gone from the north-east.

The steel industry – already hanging by a thread – would face crippling tariffs.

These are just prominent examples. No single community would be spared. Almost 70% of Welsh exports go to the EU.

Even the Tory Chancellor, Philip Hammond, who is in charge of the facts and figures, not the wishful thinking, has said that it would be a “very, very bad outcome”.

That’s a crippling depression to you and me. Our jobs, our families, our communities being stripped of wealth, for no good reason.

This is all on top of the crunch that the economy would suffer anyway, even if we came to a deal with the EU.

Parts of Wales are already the poorest in western Europe. If the UK Government gets its way, perhaps we could add eastern Europe too.

Some will claim that Theresa May’s bluffing – that it’s all a ruse to get her way with the EU. But it’s not the EU that has a lot to lose here.

May keeps insisting that the EU accept a deal that it’s simply not in their interest to accept, and she will then blame the UK’s own pig-headedness on the EU.

The UK has already done itself an awful lot of harm over Brexit, and for no good reason. Are we confident that it won’t take that final step off the cliff, just to satisfy a few rebellious backbenchers?

A number of prominent Tory Eurosceptics are already arguing for a ‘no deal’ Brexit. Not as a last resort but as a preferred solution.

Lemmings

It would be reassuring to think that this is simply idiocy. That it’s British nationalism that has got out of hand, whipped up by the Mail and Express.

But there may well be more sinister forces at work here. Why is British nationalism being whipped up to lead the public along this destructive path?

The answer that it’s just a tool by the elite to manipulate the public to get what they want.

Just like they used the financial crash as an excuse to ram through crippling austerity, Britain’s ruling class want a cataclysmic economic shock that will justify extreme measures to ‘save the country’.

The idea isn’t, in fact, to ‘take back control’ for the people of the UK but to give it all away – we will all be rudderless ships bobbing on a neo-liberal sea.

Rules are regulations will be scaled back to ‘save the economy’, but with the aim of serving the business interests of a self-serving elite.

We’re used to the UK government not caring about Wales. But they no longer seem to care about anyone.

I’m sure a lot of people reading this – if they bothered reading past the headline – will already be scribbling away in the comments: ‘Wales voted for Brexit!’

Well, we didn’t vote for this Brexit. And if you have an ounce of patriotism and love for your fellow man in your body you won’t want to follow England, lemming-like, off this cliff.

Let’s swallow our pride and admit that the Farages and Johnsons of this world duped and misled our nation.

To think that these people wanted what was best for Wales, after centuries of neglect, was at best naive.

There’s only one answer now. You can vote for a different party, but the same destructive British elite will always get in. You can’t vote away the tabloids and the billionaires that own them.

Welsh Independence is the airlock through which we can flush them out once and for all.

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8 Comments

  1. Red Dragon Jim

    Fantastic, a bit of fire in the belly. There’s no paradise looming “outside the EU state aid rules”, where we can fiddle around with “procurement” and other magic bullets. More like fantasy island.

  2. You are correct Ifan in calling out the shambolic Brexit being delivered by the Tory party. Prior to the vote David Cameron promised he would trigger Article 50 within 24 hours of the election if Leave prevailed. What did he do? Resign. The current PM and her colleagues are all Remainers at heart and will do everything in their power to drag it out and make leaving the EU as awkward as possible. The UK Elite have huge vested interests in remaining in the EU. I don’t think we will ever get free of the EU, perhaps in name, but will continue to be tied down by EU corporate rules, regulations and interests for the foreseeable future. The only answer is to have another referendum – to leave the UK. Leaving the EU is only a half measure. We need the Full Monty!

    As for your assertion that leaving the EU is akin to a “jump off a financial cliff”, and “A ‘no deal’ Brexit would be ruinous for the UK economy, but for Wales even more so.” and “The steel industry – already hanging by a thread – would face crippling tariffs” – you are simply parroting what the UK and Global Elites would like us to belief. For example, if we were allowed to have tariffs on steel imports (as the USA does), our steel industry would be thriving, not crippled.

    There is so much economic illiteracy around the issue of global trade, trading blocks, tariffs, and most importantly money, (where it comes from and who owns it and why we globally owe far more money than even exists). In this respect, your article adds more to the confusion and is almost an extension of Remain fear-mongering, now largely discredited.We have to move beyond the rhetoric, sophistry and spin. We need to start talking about how the world really works, why Wales remains poor IN THE EU, and what we need to do to fix it. Doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result is … not very smart.

    • Hi Glasiad. I’ve said before on this site that I think that a lot of people voted for Brexit for the right reasons. I am by no means an uncritical apologist for the EU. However, a ‘no deal’ Brexit would hit Wales’ economy like a ton of bricks. I don’t need the ‘UK and Global Elites’ to tell me that – and as I say in this article, Brexit is itself a project of the elites, however much it may be dressed up in the guise of working class British nationalism. Just look at the maths. A large part of Wales’ economy is primarily geared towards exporting to the EU. Leaving the EU without a deal means that exporting everything, with the rest of the world (not just the EU) becomes very much more expensive, because we won’t have any trade deals in place. It creates a great deal more paper work that requires extra time and money to get through. Massive queues in Calais and Dover, who aren’t prepared for a no deal Brexit. A hard border in Northern Ireland. Imports will also get much more expensive, because of tariffs and the plummeting pound, making everyone’s weekly shop more expensive. This isn’t Project Fear – it’s project reality. Wales’ already weak economy won’t be able to deal with having the legs kicked out from under it overnight. It will take decades to rebuild. It will make the recession of 2008 look like a picnic.

      The public don’t want a ‘no deal’ Brexit. You can’t claim that Brexit is a democratic act while going against what people actually want. Opinion poll after opinion poll has shown that people want a trade deal with the EU.

      With a right trade deal that works with us, leaving the EU could be a success. A no deal scenario is just jumping off a cliff and hoping that, through luck, we land somewhere soft. If you want to jump off that cliff, fine, but don’t drag the rest of us down with you. It’s an utopian vision that just won’t fly. – Ifan

      • You state “Brexit is itself a project of the elites”. All the evidence is to the contrary. The Financial Sector, all the Central and International Banks, all Big Business, all political parties (with the exception of that ragtag bunch of Tory rebels , UKIP), even the then President of the USA, BACKED REMAIN. They didn’t simply back Remain, they spent months leading up to the vote repeating ad nausium threats of calamity if Leave was to prevail. As if that wasn’t enough, Chancellor Osborne threatened punishing extra taxes if the people dared to revolt. To suggest that leaving the EU was an elitist project just does not square with reality. Leaving the EU was the largest democratic mandate in British history and the first time the UK Establishment experienced defeat from the common people.

        I’m not going to go into a long article on why global trade and the export warfare is actually making us poorer in our towns and villages, but that fact remain self-evident. During the past 30 years of increasing exports and global / EU integration, our actual wages have declined in spending power while the cost of living always increases. This decline is not simply a Welsh phenomenon, but experienced throughout the EU, and the Western world. We are now trapped in more private debt than we where before 2007-8 meltdown – just to make ends meet.

        Your desire for Wales to continue to play this self-defeating game of ever shrinking returns may come from a genuine concerns for our national welfare. But it is misguided, supported by misinformation deliberately spread by our Financial Overlords, their sycophantic Governments and Mainstream Media.

        Plis, er mwyn Cymru, astudiwch economeg go iawn!

  3. Glasiad is spot on, as is so often the case. As I’ve written elsewhere, a ‘no deal’ Brexit is almost certainly the best outcome, as well as being the most likely one, and it holds no fears that I can see – except perhaps this one…

    …The Conservatives are a complete shambles and have done a terrible job of this whole thing so far. I do worry that they’ll implode during or after Brexit and the result will be a Corbyn administration. An inevitable economic catastrophe will ensue, on a par with the last time his policies were tried out in the 1970s (or more recently in Venezuela), and his supporters will be able to blame Brexit for it rather than laying the blame where it belongs.

    I’d like to think that the electorate as a whole is too sensible to let that happen. I really hope so.

    • The reason why we had from the 1970: high inflation, growing de-industrialisation and growing unemployment was because the pound (£) left the gold standard in 1971. This was the fault of the then Tory chancellor Tony Barber being led by the USA’s R Nixon.
      It was the beginning of fiat currencies with reducing value and the destruction of economic capitalism (without capital how can you have capitalism).
      The Soviet Union was forced onto the gold standard as it was outside the western monetary system – result low inflation, low unemployment (pre-1970s UK/Europe). Venezuela, I understand is not on pegged to the gold. Other socialists with currencies not on the gold standard still have insecurity, unemployment, falling economy, same as western capitalism.

      When Wales and Scotland gets its independence (and indeed England) ideally should seriously consider a gold standard currency for economic stability.

  4. “carry on Brexit” is really starting to make my brain ache. It seems like we’re living in a lovely Belle Epoque with no sense of whats coming up over the horizon.

    I buy the argument that Brexit makes welsh independence more plausible, but much in the same way that a good dose of bubonic plague or a return to the middle ages would do much the same.

    Leaving the EU was idiotic in the extreme and now I’m hoping against all reasonable hope that every cloud really does have a silver lining – it has to or else this is just the single biggest debacle since, well the last greatest debacle, whatever that was.

  5. Diolch: i too realize that leaving the eu is a huge pot of gold for the ultra rich. Look at nigel firrage: a millionaire who seeks what’s in his best interests – he’ll make another fortune out of the idiots who believe his self-serving claptrap.

    Just how is Britain (=England) going to do well in a world of self interest? Look at britain vs US of death in the Bombardier debacle. That is what is meant by ‘free markets’. The bigger the opponent the more you lose – don’t people get it? Just how is britain going to get a ‘fair’ trade deal with China? Never in a million years.

    If you think britain loses ‘sovereignty’ being in a union of equals in Europe, just see how little you actually have when being told what to do by the likes of China, US, or Russia.

    That is why i think Cymru in Europe is a better option.

    If not that, then a union of Scotland, part or all of Ireland and Cymru in an arrangement whereby we are in the single market, possibly outside the political union, and merry old england plays medieval games with the jester boris Johnson as potentate.

    Joking aside, by Cymru being in the single market we could become a very lucrative trans-shipment point for eu/anglo trade. This would allow the english to be de-facto simultaneously in and out of the single market – something they have always dreamed of and summed up as having cake and eating it!

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